Is Early Voting McCain's Death Knell?

Think that McCain has no chance of winning? You might be right. In addition to Obama's leads in a number of formerly red states, he's doing quite well among early voters. The Associated Press released a polls today from most of the key states. They might not be accurate, but if they are then McCain has a huge problem. Not only is Obama ahead in all of the states -- and by pretty large margins in some of them -- but significant numbers of people have voted early in most of them and most of the early voters are going for Obama.

Battleground States

Both candidates are trying to make a case that they're the more electable candidate based on which states they've won. I'm not convinced that this means anything anyway, but what they're forgetting is that at least 30 states won't be in play no matter who's the nominee. Here's a list, courtesy of wikipedia, of the states that were close in 2004. I've added in who (if anybody) has won this year.

States where margin of victory <5%

1. Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38% -- Obama (+17)
   
2. Iowa, Bush, 0.67% -- Obama (+9)
   
3. New Mexico, Bush, 0.79% -- Clinton (+1)
   
4. New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37% -- Clinton (+2)
   
5. Ohio, Bush, 2.11% -- Clinton (+10)
   
6. Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50% -- undecided
   
7. Nevada, Bush, 2.59% -- Clinton (+6)
   
8. Michigan, Kerry, 3.42% -- undecided
   
9. Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48% -- Obama (+34)
   
10. Oregon, Kerry, 4.16% -- undecided
    
11. Colorado, Bush, 4.67% -- Obama (+35)
    

States where margin of victory 5%<10%>

1. Florida, Bush, 5.01% -- undecided
   
2. New Jersey, Kerry, 6.68% -- Clinton (+10)
   
3. Washington, Kerry, 7.18% -- Obama (+5/37)
   
4. Missouri, Bush, 7.20% -- Obama (+1)
   
5. Delaware, Kerry, 7.60% -- Obama (+10)
   
6. Virginia, Bush, 8.20% -- Obama (+29)
   
7. Hawaii, Kerry, 8.75% -- Obama (+52)
   
8. Maine, Kerry, 8.99% -- Obama (+19)
   
9. Arkansas, Bush, 9.76% -- Clinton (+44)
   
10. California, Kerry, 9.95% -- Clinton (+9)
    

Final Tally: 4 to 4 in states decided by <5%, href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html">http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Election Odds #6

After the Potomac Primaries
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 70% (+10)
Clinton 30% (-10)

Obama takes eight straight and the momentum. The large, decisive, states loom in the distance.

Republicans
McCain 99% (+9)
Huckabee 1% (-6)

Huckabee says he majored in miracles, not math, in college -- he needs one to win.

Overall
Obama 45% (+5)
McCain 43% (+2)
Clinton 10% (-4)
Huckabee 1% (-2)
Bloomberg 1% (--)

It looks like both parties will nominate their most electable candidate

By Party
Democratic 54% (-1)
Republican 45% (+1)
Independent 1% (--)

Now that McCain is all but the nominee, Republicans have nothing to do but hope Hillary wins

Election Odds #5

After Super Tuesday
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 60% (--)
Clinton 40% (--)

Obama makes a comeback to virtually tie Hillary on Super Tuesday. Now what?

Republicans
McCain 90% (+15)
Huckabee 7% (+6)
Romney 3% (-21)

McCain is still the man to beat, but Huckabee looks like the only one capable of doing so (but maybe only if Romney drops out).

Overall
McCain 41% (+1)
Obama 40% (--)
Clinton 14% (-1)
Romney 1% (-7)
Huckabee 3% (+2)
Bloomberg 1% (--)

Obama and McCain, the most electable Democrat and Republican, still look like the two most likely heirs to the throne

By Party
Democratic 54% (-1)
Republican 45% (+1)
Independent 1% (--)

The continued rise of McCain makes it more likely that a Republican will be in office next January

Election Odds #4

After SC/FL Primaries
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 60% (+5)
Clinton 40% (-3)

Obama's big win in SC gives him a boost, but Hillary's leading in the big Super Tuesday states

Republicans
McCain 75% (+20)
Romney 24% (+9)
Huckabee 1% (-14)

McCain is now the man to beat, but don't count out Romney's deep pockets

Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 40% (+3)
McCain 35% (+10)
Clinton 15% (-3)
Romney 8% (+2)
Huckabee 1% (-7)
Bloomberg 1% (--)

Obama and McCain, the most electable Democrat and Republican, look like the two most likely heirs to the throne

By Party
Democratic 55% (-1)
Republican 44% (+1)
Independent 1% (--)

The rise of McCain and Hillary's strong campaign organization make it more likely that a Republican will be in office next January

Election Odds #3

Version 3:
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 55% (-5)
Clinton 43% (+8)
Edwards 2% (-3)

Republicans
McCain 55% (+15)
Huckabee 20% (-10)
Romney 15% (+1)
Giuliani 10% (-5)



Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 37% (-3)
McCain 25% (+7)
Clinton 18% (+3)
Huckabee 8% (-4)
Romney 6% (+2)
Giuliani 4% (-1)
Bloomberg 1% (--)
Edwards 1% (-3)

By Party
Democratic 56%
Republican 43%
Independent 1%

Election Odds #2

Version 2:
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee:

Democrats
Obama 60%
Clinton 35%
Edwards 5%

Republicans
McCain 40%
Huckabee 30%
Giuliani 15%
Romney 14%
Thompson 1%


Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 40%
McCain 18%
Clinton 15%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 5%
Edwards 4%
Romney 4%
Bloomberg 1%
Thompson 1%

Election Odds

Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee:

Democrats
Obama 65%
Edwards 20%
Clinton 14%
Richardson 1%

Republicans
Huckabee 25%
McCain 24%
Romney 23%
Giuliani 22%
Thompson 5%
Paul 1%


Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 45%
Huckabee 14%
Edwards 11%
McCain 10%
Giuliani 8%
Romney 6%
Clinton 3%
Bloomberg 1%
Richardson 1%
Thompson 1%

Election '08 #1

I've noticed that the only candidates who are consistently forthright and honest are the ones with no chance to win.

I wonder . . . do they tell the truth because they have no chance, or do they have no chance because they tell the truth?