Top 25 Update

How things appear after today's games, with strengths and weaknesses of each team:

teams that look really good so far

1.) Oregon
strengths: outscored Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters; dominant in 2nd half all season; explosive offense
weaknesses: outscored in the first half by Arizona St.; let Washington St. and Tennessee hang around too long

2.) Boise St.
strengths: beat VaTech; handled Oregon St.
weaknesses: no decisive victories over top teams; weak schedule

3.) TCU
strengths: beat Oregon St.; crushed Baylor; crushed Air Force
weaknesses: were only up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.


teams that might be really good

4.) Auburn
strengths: beat South Carolina; beat Arkansas; the next Tim Tebow at QB

weaknesses: almost lost to Mississippi St.; almost lost to Kentucky; almost lost to Clemson

5.) Alabama
strengths: crushed Florida; beat Arkansas; dominant running game
weaknesses: lost to S. Carolina; inconsistent passing game; young defense

6.) Michigan St.
strengths: beat Wisconsin; beat Michigan
weaknesses: needed a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame; barely beat Northwestern

7.) Arizona
strengths: soundly beat Iowa; crushed Washington
weaknesses: lost to Oregon St.

8.) Missouri
strengths: beat Oklahoma
weaknesses: no other victories over top teams

9.) Oklahoma
strengths: destroyed Florida St.; beat Air Force; beat Texas
weaknesses: barely escaped Cincy

10.) Wisconsin
strengths: beat Ohio St.; beat Iowa
weaknesses: struggled far too often against inferior teams

11.) Ohio St.
strengths: handled Miami; dynamic QB
weaknesses: escaped Illinois; no victories over top teams

12.) Stanford
strengths: beat USC; destroyed UCLA; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

13.) Utah
strengths: beat Pitt; blew out Iowa St.
weaknesses: only beat Pitt by 3 in OT; have yet to play a top team

14.) Florida State
strengths: beat Miami soundly; blew out 4 of other 6 opponents
weaknesses: blown out by Oklahoma; barely beat BC


teams that might be pretty good

15.) South Carolina
strengths: beat 'bama
weaknesses: lost to Kentucky; struggled to put away Vandy 

16.) Nebraska
strengths: beat Oklahoma St.; destroyed Washington; destroyed Kansas St
weaknesses: lost to Texas; only beat South Dakota St. 17-3

17.) Iowa
strengths: soundly beat Penn St.; beat Michigan; elite defense
weaknesses: soundly beaten by Arizona; no victories over top teams

18.) LSU
strengths: beat Florida; played Auburn close; luckiest coach on Earth
weaknesses: almost blew a huge lead against a depleted UNC team; should've lost to Tennessee at home; almost lost to W. Virginia at home; took a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter; inconsistent offense


teams that haven't proven much of anything

19.) USC
strengths: crushed Cal; almost beat Stanford
weaknesses: lost to Washington; no victories over top teams

20.) Virginia Tech
strengths: almost beat Boise St.; beat NC State
weaknesses: lost to James Madison

21.) Oklahoma St.
strengths: undefeated; high-scoring offense
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Texas A&M; gave up 51 points to Nebraska

22.) Arkansas
strengths: almost beat Alabama; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: barely beat Texas A&M; gave up 65 points to Auburn; unimpressive win vs. Ole Miss; interception-prone QB

23.) Miami
strengths: crushed Pitt; crushed UNC
weaknesses: crushed by Florida St.; handled by Ohio St.; interception-prone QB

24.) Mississippi State
strengths: beat Florida
weaknesses: barely beat UAB;

25.) Nevada
strengths: destroyed Cal; prolific offense
weaknesses: struggled to put away BYU; lost to Hawaii


teams with resumes no less impressive


NC State
Pitt
Oregon St.
Baylor

Top 25 Update

How things appear after today's games, with strengths and weaknesses of each team:

teams that look really good so far

1.) Oregon
strengths: outscored Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters; dominant in 2nd half all season; explosive offense
weaknesses: outscored in the first half by Arizona St.; let Washington St. and Tennessee hang around too long

2.) Boise St.
strengths: handled Oregon St.
weaknesses: escaped VaTech

3.) TCU
strengths: beat Oregon St.; crushed Baylor
weaknesses: were only up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.

4.) Oklahoma
strengths: destroyed Florida St.; beat Air Force; beat Texas
weaknesses: barely escaped Cincy


teams that might be really good

5.) Alabama
strengths: crushed Florida; beat Arkansas; dominant running game;
weaknesses: lost to S. Carolina; inconsistent passing game; young defense


6.) Auburn
strengths: beat South Carolina; beat Arkansas; the next Tim Tebow
weaknesses: almost lost to Mississippi St.; almost lost to Kentucky; almost lost to Clemson

7.) Michigan St.
strengths: beat Wisconsin; beat Michigan
weaknesses: needed a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame

8.) Arizona
strengths: soundly beat Iowa
weaknesses: lost to Oregon St.

9.) Iowa
strengths: soundly beat Penn St.; beat Michigan; elite defense
weaknesses: soundly beaten by Arizona; no victories over top teams

10.) Wisconsin
strengths: beat Ohio St.
weaknesses: struggled far too often against inferior teams



11.) Ohio St.
strengths: handled Miami; dynamic QB
weaknesses: escaped Illinois; no victories over top teams

12.) Stanford
strengths: beat USC; destroyed UCLA; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

13.) Utah
strengths: beat Pitt
weaknesses: only beat Pitt by 3 in OT; have yet to play a top team

14.) Florida State
strengths: beat Miami soundly; blew out 4 of other 6 opponents
weaknesses: blown out by Oklahoma; barely beat BC


teams that might be pretty good

15.) South Carolina
strengths: beat 'bama
weaknesses: lost to Kentucky; inconsistent offense 



16.) Nebraska
strengths: destroyed Washington; destroyed Kansas St.; talented QB
weaknesses: lost to Texas; only beat South Dakota St. 17-3; young QB

17.) LSU
strengths: beat Florida; luckiest coach on Earth
weaknesses: almost blew a huge lead against a depleted UNC team; should've lost to Tennessee at home; almost lost to W. Virginia at home; took a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter; inconsistent offense; playing poorly and using poor strategy is bound to backfire eventually

18.) Texas
strengths: beat Nebraska; loads of talent
weaknesses: blown out at home by UCLA; no impressive victories; inexperienced QB




teams that haven't proven much of anything

19.) Oklahoma St.
strengths: undefeated; high-scoring offense
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Texas A&M


20.) Arkansas
strengths: almost beat Alabama; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: almost lost to Georgia; barely beat Texas A&M; interception-prone QB; suspect defense

21.) West Virginia
strengths: 5-1
weaknesses: no really impressive victories; almost lost to Marshall


22.) USC
strengths: crushed Cal; almost beat Stanford
weaknesses: lost to Washington; no victories over top teams

23.) Virginia Tech
strengths: almost beat Boise St.; beat NC State
weaknesses: lost to James Madison

24.) Missouri
strengths: undefeated; beat San Diego St.

weaknesses: haven't beaten any other teams with a winning record

25.) Nevada
strengths: destroyed Cal; prolific offense
weaknesses: struggled to put away BYU; lost to Hawaii

teams with resumes no less impressive




Mississippi St.
Miami

Kansas St.
North Carolina
NC State
Rutgers
Oregon St.

Top 25 Update

How things appear after today's games, with strengths and weaknesses of each team:

teams that look really good so far

1.) Oregon
strengths: outscored Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters; dominant in 2nd half all season; explosive offense
weaknesses: outscored in the first half by Arizona St.; let Washington St. and Tennessee hang around too long

2.) Ohio St.
strengths: handling Miami
weaknesses: escaping Illinois

3.) Boise St.
strengths: handling Oregon St.
weaknesses: escaping VaTech

4.) TCU
strengths: beat Oregon St.; crushed Baylor
weaknesses: were only up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.

5.) Oklahoma
strengths: destroyed Florida St.; beat Air Force; beat Texas
weaknesses: barely escaped Cincy


teams that might be really good

6.) Nebraska
strengths: destroyed Washington; destroyed Kansas St.; talented QB
weaknesses: haven't played a top team; only beat South Dakota St. 17-3; young QB

7.) Auburn
strengths: beat South Carolina
weaknesses: almost lost to Mississippi; almost lost to Kentucky; almost lost to Clemson

8.) South Carolina
strengths: beat 'bama
weaknesses: no other really impressive victories; inconsistent offense

9.) Alabama
strengths: crushed Florida; beat Arkansas; dominant running game; probably better than many teams above them
weaknesses: lost to S. Carolina; inconsistent passing game; young defense


teams that are probably pretty good

10.) Michigan St.
strengths: beat Wisconsin; beat Michigan

weaknesses: needed a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame

11.) Arizona
strengths: soundly beat Iowa
weaknesses: lost to Oregon St.

12.) Iowa
strengths: soundly beat Penn St.; elite defense
weaknesses: soundly beaten by Arizona

13.) Arkansas
strengths: almost beat Alabama; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: almost lost to Georgia; barely beat Texas A&M; interception-prone QB

14.) Stanford
strengths: beat USC; destroyed UCLA; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

15.) Utah
strengths: beat Pitt; blew out Iowa St.
weaknesses: only beat Pitt by 3 in OT; have yet to play a top team

16.) Florida State
strengths: beat Miami; blew out 4 of other 5 opponents
weaknesses: blown out by Oklahoma



teams that might be pretty good

17.) Nevada
strengths: destroyed Cal; prolific offense
weaknesses: struggled to put away BYU

18.) LSU
strengths: beat Florida; luckiest coach on Earth
weaknesses: almost blew a huge lead against a depleted UNC team; should've lost to Tennessee at home; almost lost to W. Virginia at home; took a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter; inconsistent offense; playing poorly and using poor strategy is bound to backfire eventually

19.) Air Force
strengths: almost beat Oklahoma on the road; beat Navy; strong ground game
weaknesses: only beat Wyoming by 6; less talent than top teams



20.) Oregon St.
strengths: beat Arizona
weaknesses: lost to Boise/TCU

21.) North Carolina State
strengths: soundly beat Georgia Tech; beat Cincy; dynamic QB
weaknesses: blew large lead against Virginia Tech; barely beat UCF


Teams that haven't really earned a spot in the top 25, but I can't just leave the rest blank

22.) Wisconsin
strengths: managed to win 5 games
weaknesses: struggled far too often against inferior teams

23.) Texas
strengths: played in the national title game last year; beat Texas Tech; loads of talent
weaknesses: blown out at home by UCLA; no impressive victories; inexperienced QB

24.) Oklahoma St.
strengths: undefeated; high-scoring offense
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Texas A&M

25.) West Virginia
strengths: 4-1
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Marshall


teams with resumes no less impressive

Miami
Florida
Missouri

I'm skeptical that South Carolina or Auburn are legitimate top 10 teams, but Auburn has to be above S. Carolina, who has to be above Alabama, who I'm pretty sure is a legitimate top 10 team (at least).  On a related note, I'd be shocked if Alabama won out and didn't go to the national championship game over an undefeated Boise State, TCU, Utah, or Nevada.

Top 25 Update

After 5 weeks of football, we now have enough info to start making some educated guesses as to which are the best teams in college football.  Here's how I'd rank the top 25, with the most impressive and least impressive thing that each team has done:

teams that are probably really good

1.) Alabama
most impressive: crushing Florida
least impressive: getting down early vs. Arkansas

2.) Oregon
most impressive: outscoring Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters
least impressive: being outscored in the first half by Arizona St.

3.) Ohio St.
most impressive: handling Miami
least impressive: escaping Illinois

4.) Boise St.
most impressive: handling Oregon St.
least impressive: escaping VaTech

teams that might be really good

5.) TCU
most impressive: crushing Baylor?
least impressive: being up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.

6.) Oklahoma
most impressive: destroying Florida St.
least impressive: barely escaping Cincy

7.) Nebraska
most impressive: destroying Washington
least impressive: beating South Dakota St. 17-3

8.) Arkansas
most impressive: almost beating Alabama
least impressive: almost losing to Georgia

9.) Arizona
most impressive: soundly beating Iowa
least impressive: barely beating Cal

10.) Iowa
most impressive: soundly beating Penn St.
being soundly beaten by Arizona

teams that are probably pretty good

11.) Florida
most impressive: not losing its first 4 games despite trying pretty hard to do so
least impressive: being crushed by Alabama

12.) Stanford
most impressive: destroying UCLA
least impressive: being outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

13.) Auburn
most impressive: beating South Carolina
least impressive: almost losing to Mississippi

14.) Utah
most impressive: beating Pitt
least impressive: only beating Pitt by 3 in OT

teams that might be pretty good

15.) Michigan St.
most impressive: beating Wisconsin
least impressive: needing a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame

16.) Michigan
most impressive: its offense in every game
least impressive: its defense in every game

17.) Miami
most impressive: destroying Pitt
least impressive: every ball Jacory Harris floats up in the air hoping it gets caught by his team

18.) Nevada
most impressive: destroying Cal
least impressive: struggling to put away BYU

19.) LSU
most impressive: somehow winning every game they've played
least impressive: the offense, almost blowing a huge lead against a depleted UNC team, almost losing to Tennessee at home, almost losing to W. Virginia at home, taking a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter, and being far more talented than every team they've played but still routinely being outplayed . . . also, why wasn't LSU flagged on the penultimate play against UT when the player removed his helmet and threw it to the ground?  I'd have to surmise it was b/c the refs thought the game was over.  Oops.

20.) Air Force
most impressive: almost beating Oklahoma on the road
least impressive: only beating Wyoming by 6

teams that are probably above average and could possibly be better, but we're not really sure

21.) South Carolina
most impressive: beating Georgia?
least impressive: that their signature win came when they scored 17 points against a now 1-4 team

22.) Wisconsin
most impressive: managing to win their first 4 games
least impressive: struggling to win too many of their first 4 games

23.) Texas
most impressive: playing in the national title game last year
least impressive: being blown out at home by UCLA

23.) Florida State
most impressive: blowing out 4 of their 5 opponents
least impressive: getting blown out by Oklahoma

24.) North Carolina State
most impressive: soundly beating Georgia Tech
least impressive: blowing a large lead against Virginia Tech

25.) Kansas St.
most impressive: beating above average teams UCLA and Iowa St.
least impressive: only beating UCF by 4


As you can see, there aren't many teams that have done much to prove themselves this year.  I'm confident that the top 10 teams are all good teams that deserve to be ranked in the top 25, but the next 10 are dicey and after #20 we might as well just pull 5 teams out of a hat.

Final Top 25 Update

Even though I think bowl games are meaningless, I couldn't resist one last update.  Here's how the bowl season played out (teams that lost crossed out):

 

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Alabama		1.	Alabama		1.	Alabama
2.	Texas		2.	Florida		2.	Florida
3.	TCU		3.	Boise State		3.	Texas
4.	Cincinnati		4.	Texas		4.	Boise State
5.	Florida		5.	Ohio State		5.	TCU
6.	Boise State		6.	TCU		6.	Ohio State
7.	Oregon		7.	Cincinnati		7.	Iowa
8.	Ohio State		8.	Iowa		8.	Cincinnati
9.	Georgia Tech		9.	Penn State		9.	Penn State
10.	Iowa		10.	VA Tech		10.	VA Tech
11.	Penn State		11.	Oregon		11.	Oregon
12.	Virginia Tech		12.	GA Tech		12.	GA Tech
13.	LSU		13.	BYU		13.	Pitt
14.	Miami (Fla.)		14.	Pitt		14.	Nebraska
15.	Brigham Young		15.	Nebraska		15.	Wisconsin
16.	Oregon State		16.	LSU		16.	LSU
17.	Pittsburgh		17.	Miami (Fla.)		17.	Miami (Fla.)
18.	West Virginia		18.	Utah		18.	Tex Tech
19.	Stanford		19.	Wisconsin		19.	BYU
20.	Nebraska		20.	C. Michigan		20.	Oregon St.
21.	Okla St.		21.	Tex Tech		21.	USC
22.	Arizona		22.	Oregon St.		22.	Ole Miss
23.	Utah		23.	USC		23.	Rutgers
24.	Wisconsin		24.	Clemson		24.	Stanford
25.	C. Michigan		25.	Ole Miss		25.	W. Virginia
26.	E. Carolina		26.	W. Virginia		26.	C. Michigan
27.	Houston		27.	Stanford
28.	Texas Tech		28.	OK State
29.	USC		29.	Rutgers
30.	Northwestern		30.	Georgia
31.	Clemson		31.	Navy
32.	Cal		32.	Oklahoma
33.	Ole Miss
34.	UNC
35.	Oklahoma
36.	Tennessee
37.	Missouri

 
Other Random Thoughts

-I don't attach much, if any, meaning to the outcomes of the bowl games.  The teams often have layoffs of a month or more, coaching staffs turnover, seniors start thinking about the NFL, teams play in weird places and try out new schemes, and so on . . . In the end, all but one of them is an exhibition game and the National Championship Game has had more than its share of fluky results as well.

-I'm not sure if I've ever seen two less impressive teams in the title game.  Despite Texas trying very hard to lose the game, it took Alabama 58 minutes to seal the deal.  In the end, 'bama only passed for 58 yards and averaged 4.0 yards per rush.  Despite Texas' offensive ineptitude, they actually outgained 'bama.  It's impossible to say whether the game wouldn't turned out differently had McCoy not gotten hurt, but I'm pretty darn sure that McCoy wouldn't have finished 15/40 with 4 INT's.

-Here are the final conference records for the bowl games.  Again, not that this means much:

Conf.	W	L	%
Big East	4	2	0.667
SEC	6	4	0.600
Big Ten	4	3	0.571
Pac 10	3	4	0.429
ACC	3	4	0.429
Big XII	3	5	0.375

Top 25 Update

How this weekend played out:
(Teams that lost crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green)
update: actual rankings in parentheses -- I was within 1 for 19/30 teams

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Florida		1.	Alabama (1)		1.	Alabama
2.	Alabama		2.	Texas (2)		2.	Texas
3.	Texas		3.	TCU (3)		3.	Cincinnati
4.	TCU		4.	Cincinnati (4)		4.	TCU
5.	Cincinnati		5.	Florida (5)		5.	Florida
6.	Boise State		6.	Boise State (6)		6.	Boise State
7.	Oregon		7.	Oregon (7)		7.	Oregon
8.	Ohio State		8.	Ohio State (8)		8.	Ohio State
9.	Iowa		9.	Iowa (10)		9.	Iowa
10.	Penn State		10.	Penn State (11)		10.	Penn State
11.	Virginia Tech		11.	Virginia Tech (12)		11.	Virginia Tech
12.	Georgia Tech		12.	Georgia Tech (9)		12.	Georgia Tech
13.	Oregon State		13.	LSU (13)		13.	Oregon State
14.	Pitt		14.	Oregon St. (16)		14.	LSU
15.	LSU		15.	Pitt (17)		15.	Miami (Fla.)
16.	BYU		16.	BYU (15)		16.	West Virginia
17.	Miami (Fla.)		17.	Miami (Fla.) (14)		17.	Pitt
18.	Houston		18.	OK State (21)		18.	Stanford
19.	California		19.	Stanford (19)		19.	Nebraska
20.	USC		20.	West Virginia (18)		20.	Arizona
21.	Nebraska		21.	Nebraska (20)		21.	Wisconsin
22.	OK State		22.	Arizona (22)		22.	OK State
23.	Stanford		23.	Wisconsin (24)		23.	Clemson
24.	West Virginia		24.	Utah (23)		24.	Tex Tech
25.	Clemson		25.	Tex Tech (28)		25.	USC
26.	Utah		26.	USC (29)		26.	UNC
27.	Wisconsin		27.	Clemson (31)
28.	Tex Tech		28.	Ole Miss (33)
29.	Arizona		29.	Northwestern (30)
30.	Ole Miss		30.	C. Michigan (25)
31.	Northwestern
32.	C. Michigan

Other Random Thoughts

-Despite a number of exciting games, that was the least interesting second half of a season in recent memory -- zero (0) major upsets and virtually no BCS drama.  At least 'bama v. Texas should be an interesting match-up in the title game.

-Nebraska and Pitt both lost, in part, because of ultra-conservative play-calling late in the game.  Both have good defenses, but the coaches need to realize that good offense beats good defense right now in college football . . . and their teams were playing two of the best offenses in the country.  In Pitt's case, it marks the second time they've lost this year after being up 14 points in the 4th quarter.

-Worst play call by Pitt: an inside hand-off to their fullback on 3rd and 24 in the 3rd quarter.  2nd worst play call: a play-action pass (that resulted in a sack) on 4th down with 10 seconds left and 50+ yards away from FG range.

-It appeared that Pelini's decision to simply move the ball to the middle of the field on 3rd and 6 worked out well when they made a go ahead FG on the next play with 1:44 left.  But 1:44 is an awful lot of time for Colt McCoy to move his team into FG range.

-Speaking of McCoy, he almost made one of the dumbest plays of all time when he inexplicably let the game clock tick down to only 7 seconds remaining before snapping the ball.  Despite the initial controversy, there's absolutely no doubt that there was, in fact, 1 second left when his pass hit the ground.  But, still . . . what was he thinking?

-Somebody said there was an ACC title game today?  Did anybody else hear that rumor?

-Predicted Heisman voting:
1.) Ingram
2.) McCoy
3.) Suh
4.) Gerhart
5.) Tebow
6.) Spiller
7.) Tate

-My Heisman Ballot:
1.) Ingram
2.) Suh
3.) Spiller

update: I got the top 5 in the Heisman voting right, though time will tell how close I was on the order.  I think Suh might be higher and McCoy lower than I originally predicted.

Top 25 Update

How this weekend played out:
(teams that won crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses -- I was within one for all of the top 17, but for only 3 of the next 17

 

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Florida		1.	Florida (1)		1.	Texas
2.	Texas		2.	Texas (3)		2.	Alabama
3.	Alabama		3.	Alabama (2)		3.	Florida
4.	TCU		4.	TCU (4)		4.	TCU
5.	Cincy		5.	Cincy (5)		5.	Cincy
6.	Boise St.		6.	Boise St. (6)		6.	Pitt
7.	GA Tech		7.	GA Tech (7)		7.	GA Tech
8.	Pitt		8.	Pitt (8)		8.	Ohio St.
9.	LSU		9.	Ohio St. (9)		9.	Oregon
10.	Ohio St.		10.	LSU (10)		10.	LSU
11.	USC		11.	Oregon (11)		11.	Boise St.
12.	Miami		12.	OK State (12)		12.	Iowa
13.	Houston		13.	Penn St. (13)		13.	Penn St.
14.	Oregon		14.	Stanford (14)		14.	Stanford
15.	Iowa		15.	VaTech (16)		15.	VaTech
16.	Utah		16.	Wisconsin (17)		16.	Wisconsin
17.	OK State		17.	Clemson (18)		17.	Oregon St.
18.	Arizona		18.	Iowa (15)		18.	Rutgers
19.	Penn St.		19.	Oregon St. (20)		19.	OK State
20.	VaTech		20.	USC (22)		20.	USC
21.	Wisconsin		21.	Rutgers (25)		21.	Clemson
22.	BYU		22.	Miami (21)		22.	Nebraska
23.	S. Florida		23.	Nebraska (27)		23.	UNC
24.	Clemson		24.	BYU (19)		24.	Miami
25.	Stanford		25.	UNC (26)		25.	Ole Miss
26.	Oregon St.		26.	Arizona (29)		26.	S. Florida
27.	W. Virginia		27.	Ole Miss (30)
28.	Auburn		28.	Navy (31)
29.	Texas Tech		29.	BC (38)
30.	Navy		30.	Utah (23)
31.	Tennessee		31.	Cal (28)
32.	Rutgers		32.	W. Virginia (35)
33.	Nebraska		33.	Houston (24)
			34.	S. Florida (NR)
			35.	Temple (32)

games between top 25 teams next week:

LSU at Ole Miss


other losable games for top 25 teams next week:

Ohio St. at Michigan
Duke at Miami
Oregon at Arizona
Minnesota at Iowa
Penn St. at Michigan St.
Wisconsin at Northwestern
Air Force at BYU
Cal at Stanford
UNC at BC
Kansas St. at Nebraska

other random thoughts:

-worst coaching move of the day goes to Kirk Ferentz of Iowa for running out the clock at the end of the game instead of trying to get into field goal position.  When your team is tied on the road against a top team, you have to take risks to win.  When his team had the ball within 40 yards of FG range with a minute on the clock he needed to make some sort of attempt to win the game.  Instead, he let it go into overtime and promptly lost.

-I don't know why that ball Jimmy Clausen tried to throw was ruled a fumble instead of an incomplete pass.  I've never seen a fumble propelled 8 yards forward by a QB's arm before.  The only possible explanation that I can think of is that he lost control of the ball before his arm moved forward (sure would've been nice if Musberger, Herbstreit, or somebody from the ABC crew had taken the time to figure out what the actual rule was during the review or the next two minutes of game time).

-I still stand by my prediction that TCU will emerge as the best non-BCS conference team by the end of the year

-Iowa has two losses and beat Wisconsin and Penn State, who both have two losses as well, on the road.  I'm betting the AP voters rank both ahead of Iowa anyway in this week's big rankings blunder.  Other head-to-head winners with identical records that will likely be ranked below the team they beat: UNC behind Miami, Cal behind Oregon, and South Florida behind West Virginia
update: Miami is, indeed, 5 spots ahead of UNC -- who continues to get little respect.  West Virginia is also ahead of South Florida, but Cal is one spot ahead of Arizona.  And, no, I don't think it's a travesty that Houston is behind Oklahoma St. since their records outside of that game are totally different.

another update:
underrated teams: Iowa, Rutgers, UNC, S. Florida
overrated teams: Boise St., OK State, BYU, Utah, Houston

Top 25 Update

How this weekend played out:
(teams that won crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses, I was way off -- only came within one place on 15/34 teams.

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Florida		1.	Florida (1)		1.	Alabama
2.	Texas		2.	Alabama (3)		2.	Florida
3.	Alabama		3.	Texas (2)		3.	Texas
4.	Cincy		4.	Cincy (5)		4.	Cincy
5.	Boise St.		5.	TCU (4)		5.	TCU
6.	TCU		6.	Boise St. (6)		6.	Pitt
7.	Oregon		7.	GA Tech (7)		7.	GA Tech
8.	Iowa		8.	Oregon (16)		8.	Boise St.
9.	LSU		9.	USC (10)		9.	Oregon
10.	GA Tech		10.	Ohio St. (8)		10.	USC
11.	Penn St.		11.	Pitt (9)		11.	Ohio St.
12.	USC		12.	Iowa (13)		12.	Iowa
13.	Houston		13.	LSU (11)		13.	Penn St.
14.	Pitt		14.	Houston (12)		14.	LSU
15.	Ohio St.		15.	Miami (15)		15.	VaTech
16.	Miami		16.	Utah (14)		16.	Wisconsin
17.	Utah		17.	Okla St. (18)		17.	Arizona
18.	Okla St.		18.	Arizona (19)		18.	Miami
19.	Notre Dame		19.	Penn St. (17)		19.	S. Florida
20.	Oklahoma		20.	VaTech (21)		20.	Stanford
21.	Arizona		21.	Stanford (27)		21.	W. Virginia
22.	VaTech		22.	Wisconsin (20)		22.	Houston
23.	Cal		23.	Oregon St. (28)		23.	Oregon St.
24.	Wisconsin		24.	BYU (22)		24.	Okla St.
25.	BYU		25.	Nebraska (30)		25.	Rutgers
26.	S. Florida		26.	S. Florida (24)		26.	Clemson
27.	Clemson		27.	Clemson (26)
28.	Auburn		28.	Auburn (25)
29.	Texas Tech		29.	Texas Tech (29)
30.	W. Virginia		30.	W. Virginia (NR)
31.	Rutgers		31.	Rutgers (37)
			32.	UNC (34)
			33.	Navy (31)
			34.	Notre Dame (NR)

Games between top 25 teams next week:

Utah at TCU
Iowa at Ohio St.
Stanford at USC


Other losable games for top 25 teams:

Notre Dame at Pitt
Florida at S. Carolina
Cincy vs. W. Virginia
Texas Tech at OK St.
Arizona at Cal
Michigan at Wisconsin
Washington at Oregon St.
Miami at UNC


Other random thoughts

-I'm confident that the top four teams are legitimately top 10 teams, I'm somewhat convinced that TCU belongs, but past that I'm really not sure.  I'm not buying GA Tech, (who had another close win over a mediocre team) Boise St., (who had another close win over a below average team) or Pitt (who's schedule strength has been less than impressive) as legitimate top 10 teams at this point in time.  And USC, Oregon, Ohio St., and Iowa seem to alternate between impressive and unimpressive victories on a weekly basis.

-It's hard to believe that Oregon will only drop one spot in the rankings after losing to Stanford, but they can't drop below USC, who can't drop below Ohio St.  And how many teams can jump all three?
update: Apparently they can.  Oregon trounced USC, who beat Ohio St. on the road.  All three have identical records and pretty similar wins/losses outside of those games.  But Ohio St. is #8, USC is #10, and Oregon is #16.  Huh?

Top 25 Update

How this weekend played out
(teams that won crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses.  I did pretty well on the top 17 (15/17 within one spot), but horribly after that (4/16 within one spot).
  

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Florida		1.	Florida (1)		1.	Alabama
2.	Alabama		2.	Alabama (3)		2.	Florida
3.	Texas		3.	Texas (2)		3.	Texas
4.	USC		4.	Cincy (4)		4.	Cincy
5.	Cincy		5.	Boise St. (5)		5.	Iowa
6.	Boise St.		6.	Oregon (7)		6.	TCU
7.	Iowa		7.	Iowa (8)		7.	Penn St.
8.	TCU		8.	TCU (6)		8.	Boise St.
9.	LSU		9.	LSU (9)		9.	Oregon
10.	Oregon		10.	GA Tech (10)		10.	GA Tech
11.	GA Tech		11.	Penn St. (11)		11.	LSU
12.	Penn St.		12.	USC (12)		12.	USC
13.	Okla St.		13.	Pitt (14)		13.	Pitt
14.	VaTech		14.	Ohio St. (15)		14.	Ohio St.
15.	Houston		15.	Houston (13)		15.	Oklahoma
16.	Pitt		16.	Miami (16)		16.	VaTech
17.	Ohio St.		17.	Utah (17)		17.	Wisconsin
18.	Miami		18.	Oklahoma (20)		18.	Miami
19.	Utah		19.	Arizona (21)		19.	Arizona
20.	W. Virginia		20.	Okla St. (18)		20.	Houston
21.	S. Carolina		21.	Notre Dame (19)		21.	Notre Dame
22.	Oklahoma		22.	BYU (25)		22.	S. Florida
23.	Arizona		23.	VaTech (22)		23.	W. Virginia
24.	Ole Miss		24.	Cal (24)		24.	Okla St.
25.	Notre Dame		25.	Texas Tech (29)		25.	Cal
26.	BYU		26.	Wisconsin (24)		26.	Rutgers
27.	C. Michigan		27.	Clemson (27)
28.	Cal		28.	UNC (NR)
29.	Texas Tech		29.	S. Florida (26)
30.	Wisconsin		30.	W. Virginia (30)
31.	Navy		31.	Auburn (28)
32.	Kansas		32.	S. Carolina (37)
33.	Clemson		33.	Rutgers (31)

games between top 25 teams next week:

LSU at 'bama
Ohio St. at Penn St.


other losable games for top 25 teams:

UConn at Cincy
Wake Forest at GA Tech
Navy at Notre Dame
Oregon St. at Cal
Oklahoma at Nebraska


other random thoughts:

-Oregon has played too well the last few weeks to keep them out of the top ten, and maybe even the top five.  But when Brent Musberger asked when we might start thinking about them as a possible BCS title game contender, there's an easy answer: when Boise State loses.  They're playing as well as anybody in the country right now, but they were less than stellar the first three weeks of the season.  If you look at their schedule, you'll see these results:

week 1: lost to Boise St. while looking out of sorts all game and going the entire first half without a first down
week 2: barely scraped by Purdue -- a team that lost to Northern Illinois the following week -- at home, a game in which they were outgained by over 100 yards
week 3: narrowly beat Utah at home in a game in which Masoli was 4-16 for 95 yards passing

Since then, they've been a different team (though Masoli's still not a great passer).  So the question becomes: do we base Oregon's ranking on their play in October, or their play for the entire season?  I think the answer is the latter -- which means that, at the very least, we cannot rank them ahead of Boise St. right now, regardless of what Kirk Herbstreit says.  update: Last week, two people (one of them being Herbstreit) ranked Oregon above Boise St.  This week, eight people did (not including Herbstreit, who apparently didn't vote this week).

-With VaTech losing and Miami and GA Tech both trailing during the second half, it was almost a nightmare week for ACC boosters.  I think it's pretty unanimous that the Big East is the weakest BCS conference, but they'll have more top 15 teams when the next poll is released than will the ACC (2- Cincy and Pitt vs. 1-GA Tech).  5 out of 8 Big East teams have 2 losses or fewer, while that's only true of 2 out of 12 ACC teams.  That doesn't mean that the former is stronger than the latter (it doesn't take schedule strength, for one, into account), but it sure is interesting.

-The bottom of the top 25 is once again complete chaos.  I see about 16 teams that look pretty good, and then every team after that has significant weaknesses and/or lacks wins over good teams.  I don't know who's best, for example, between Arizona, Notre Dame, and Utah -- but I do know they've given me little reason to think that they're elite teams.

-update:  now that the standings are out, I'm picking Houston as the most overrated team (now that their wins against OK St. and Texas Tech look less impressive, their loss against UTEP even worse, and they're barely squeaking by teams like Southern Miss) and UNC as the most underrated team (how they failed to get a vote after beating VaTech on the road is beyond me).  I'd pick Oklahoma State as the most likely to finish the season ranked lower than they are right now and Wisonsin, VaTech, and Oklahoma as the most likely to finish higher (not very adventurous on the latter two, I know).

Top 25 Update

How this weekend played out
(teams that won crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses, I was within one spot for 29/31 teams in the easiest week to predict yet

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Alabama		1.	Alabama (2)		1.	Alabama
2.	Florida		2.	Florida (1)		2.	Florida
3.	Texas		3.	Texas (3)		3.	Texas
4.	USC		4.	USC (4)		4.	Cincy
5.	Cincy		5.	Cincy (5)		5.	USC
6.	Boise St.		6.	Boise St. (6)		6.	Iowa
7.	Iowa		7.	Iowa (7)		7.	TCU
8.	Miami		8.	LSU (9)		8.	Penn St.
9.	LSU		9.	TCU (8)		9.	GA Tech
10.	TCU		10.	GA Tech (11)		10.	Boise St.
11.	GA Tech		11.	Oregon (10)		11.	Houston
12.	Oregon		12.	Penn St. (12)		12.	Okla St.
13.	Penn St.		13.	Okla St. (13)		13.	Oregon
14.	OK St.		14.	VaTech (14)		14.	VaTech
15.	VaTech		15.	Houston (15)		15.	LSU
16.	BYU		16.	Ohio St. (17)		16.	Pitt
17.	Houston		17.	Miami (18)		17.	Ohio St.
18.	Ohio St.		18.	Pitt (16)		18.	Oklahoma
19.	Utah		19.	Utah (19)		19.	W. Virginia
20.	Pitt		20.	W. Virginia (20)		20.	Miami
21.	Tx Tech		21.	S. Carolina (21)		21.	Notre Dame
22.	West Virginia		22.	BYU (26)		22.	S. Carolina
23.	S. Carolina		23.	Oklahoma (22)		23.	Ole Miss
24.	Kansas		24.	Notre Dame (25)		24.	Arizona
25.	Oklahoma		25.	Ole Miss (24)		25.	Cal
26.	Notre Dame		26.	Arizona (23)		26.	Wisconsin
27.	Ole Miss		27.	C. Michigan (27)
28.	S. Florida		28.	Cal (28)
29.	Nebraska		29.	Wisconsin (30)
30.	Michigan		30.	Navy (31)
31.	C. Michigan		31.	Kansas (32)
32.	Cal
33.	Arizona

games between top 25 teams next week:
Texas at Oklahoma St.
USC at Oregon

Other losable games for top 25 teams:
Georgia at Florida
Indiana at Iowa
Miami at Wake Forest
Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt
UNC at VaTech
West Virgina at S. Florida
South Carolina at Tennessee

Other Random Thoughts
-Not only does it look like the refs blew the call on Florida's fumble at the goal line, they also failed to call the most obvious excessive celebration of the season.  After all the flags they've thrown this season for people calling attention to themselves, I don't know how they missed somebody high-stepping into the endzone.  I don't for a second believe there's any sort of conspiracy, but you have to believe that Florida's luck with the officials has to run out at some point.

-Worst coaching decision of the day goes to Lane Kiffin for failing to try and move closer for the game winning field goal.  His team had 1st and 10 with about 41 seconds left in position to kick a 44 yard field goal.  Despite the fact that his kicker had already had a 43 yarder blocked after kicking it too low and missed a 47 yarder short, Kiffin decided to play it safe.  They ran toward the middle of the field for no gain, let the clock run down to 4 seconds, spiked the ball, and then attempted the kick.  Not surprisingly, it was blocked after it was kicked too low.  When you're playing the #1 team on the road, you have to take some risks if you want to win the game.

-TCU deserves to skip over some teams above them after their performance, but I'm somewhat skeptical that they will.  Does anybody see LSU getting jumped after their best victory of the year?  It's possible that Iowa could fall after once again barely eking out victory against an inferior opponent.  They probably should jump Boise State, but I don't see that happening either.

-Hardest team to predict this week: BYU.  With two losses and a win over Oklahoma, they have a pretty good case for staying above the Sooners, but with the way they've been shellacked by FSU and TCU since that opening victory, I have to believe at least a few people will simply drop them from their top 25.

-I've previously picked Kansas, Missouri, LSU, Oregon, and Boise St. as overrated.  I was right on the first two.  LSU had its best victory, but that's not really saying much.  Oregon is starting to make a believer out of me, but they really weren't that good the first few weeks of the season regardless of how well they play at the end.  And nobody knows how good Boise State really is.

-Last week I picked Oklahoma, VaTech, Penn State, and Texas Tech to finish higher in the polls than they were at the time.  I guess three out of four ain't bad.