Election Odds #4

After SC/FL Primaries
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 60% (+5)
Clinton 40% (-3)

Obama's big win in SC gives him a boost, but Hillary's leading in the big Super Tuesday states

Republicans
McCain 75% (+20)
Romney 24% (+9)
Huckabee 1% (-14)

McCain is now the man to beat, but don't count out Romney's deep pockets

Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 40% (+3)
McCain 35% (+10)
Clinton 15% (-3)
Romney 8% (+2)
Huckabee 1% (-7)
Bloomberg 1% (--)

Obama and McCain, the most electable Democrat and Republican, look like the two most likely heirs to the throne

By Party
Democratic 55% (-1)
Republican 44% (+1)
Independent 1% (--)

The rise of McCain and Hillary's strong campaign organization make it more likely that a Republican will be in office next January