Top 25 Update

How this weekend played out
(teams that won crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses.  I did pretty well on the top 17 (15/17 within one spot), but horribly after that (4/16 within one spot).
  

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Florida		1.	Florida (1)		1.	Alabama
2.	Alabama		2.	Alabama (3)		2.	Florida
3.	Texas		3.	Texas (2)		3.	Texas
4.	USC		4.	Cincy (4)		4.	Cincy
5.	Cincy		5.	Boise St. (5)		5.	Iowa
6.	Boise St.		6.	Oregon (7)		6.	TCU
7.	Iowa		7.	Iowa (8)		7.	Penn St.
8.	TCU		8.	TCU (6)		8.	Boise St.
9.	LSU		9.	LSU (9)		9.	Oregon
10.	Oregon		10.	GA Tech (10)		10.	GA Tech
11.	GA Tech		11.	Penn St. (11)		11.	LSU
12.	Penn St.		12.	USC (12)		12.	USC
13.	Okla St.		13.	Pitt (14)		13.	Pitt
14.	VaTech		14.	Ohio St. (15)		14.	Ohio St.
15.	Houston		15.	Houston (13)		15.	Oklahoma
16.	Pitt		16.	Miami (16)		16.	VaTech
17.	Ohio St.		17.	Utah (17)		17.	Wisconsin
18.	Miami		18.	Oklahoma (20)		18.	Miami
19.	Utah		19.	Arizona (21)		19.	Arizona
20.	W. Virginia		20.	Okla St. (18)		20.	Houston
21.	S. Carolina		21.	Notre Dame (19)		21.	Notre Dame
22.	Oklahoma		22.	BYU (25)		22.	S. Florida
23.	Arizona		23.	VaTech (22)		23.	W. Virginia
24.	Ole Miss		24.	Cal (24)		24.	Okla St.
25.	Notre Dame		25.	Texas Tech (29)		25.	Cal
26.	BYU		26.	Wisconsin (24)		26.	Rutgers
27.	C. Michigan		27.	Clemson (27)
28.	Cal		28.	UNC (NR)
29.	Texas Tech		29.	S. Florida (26)
30.	Wisconsin		30.	W. Virginia (30)
31.	Navy		31.	Auburn (28)
32.	Kansas		32.	S. Carolina (37)
33.	Clemson		33.	Rutgers (31)

games between top 25 teams next week:

LSU at 'bama
Ohio St. at Penn St.


other losable games for top 25 teams:

UConn at Cincy
Wake Forest at GA Tech
Navy at Notre Dame
Oregon St. at Cal
Oklahoma at Nebraska


other random thoughts:

-Oregon has played too well the last few weeks to keep them out of the top ten, and maybe even the top five.  But when Brent Musberger asked when we might start thinking about them as a possible BCS title game contender, there's an easy answer: when Boise State loses.  They're playing as well as anybody in the country right now, but they were less than stellar the first three weeks of the season.  If you look at their schedule, you'll see these results:

week 1: lost to Boise St. while looking out of sorts all game and going the entire first half without a first down
week 2: barely scraped by Purdue -- a team that lost to Northern Illinois the following week -- at home, a game in which they were outgained by over 100 yards
week 3: narrowly beat Utah at home in a game in which Masoli was 4-16 for 95 yards passing

Since then, they've been a different team (though Masoli's still not a great passer).  So the question becomes: do we base Oregon's ranking on their play in October, or their play for the entire season?  I think the answer is the latter -- which means that, at the very least, we cannot rank them ahead of Boise St. right now, regardless of what Kirk Herbstreit says.  update: Last week, two people (one of them being Herbstreit) ranked Oregon above Boise St.  This week, eight people did (not including Herbstreit, who apparently didn't vote this week).

-With VaTech losing and Miami and GA Tech both trailing during the second half, it was almost a nightmare week for ACC boosters.  I think it's pretty unanimous that the Big East is the weakest BCS conference, but they'll have more top 15 teams when the next poll is released than will the ACC (2- Cincy and Pitt vs. 1-GA Tech).  5 out of 8 Big East teams have 2 losses or fewer, while that's only true of 2 out of 12 ACC teams.  That doesn't mean that the former is stronger than the latter (it doesn't take schedule strength, for one, into account), but it sure is interesting.

-The bottom of the top 25 is once again complete chaos.  I see about 16 teams that look pretty good, and then every team after that has significant weaknesses and/or lacks wins over good teams.  I don't know who's best, for example, between Arizona, Notre Dame, and Utah -- but I do know they've given me little reason to think that they're elite teams.

-update:  now that the standings are out, I'm picking Houston as the most overrated team (now that their wins against OK St. and Texas Tech look less impressive, their loss against UTEP even worse, and they're barely squeaking by teams like Southern Miss) and UNC as the most underrated team (how they failed to get a vote after beating VaTech on the road is beyond me).  I'd pick Oklahoma State as the most likely to finish the season ranked lower than they are right now and Wisonsin, VaTech, and Oklahoma as the most likely to finish higher (not very adventurous on the latter two, I know).

Top 25 Update

How this weekend played out
(teams that won crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses, I was within one spot for 29/31 teams in the easiest week to predict yet

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Alabama		1.	Alabama (2)		1.	Alabama
2.	Florida		2.	Florida (1)		2.	Florida
3.	Texas		3.	Texas (3)		3.	Texas
4.	USC		4.	USC (4)		4.	Cincy
5.	Cincy		5.	Cincy (5)		5.	USC
6.	Boise St.		6.	Boise St. (6)		6.	Iowa
7.	Iowa		7.	Iowa (7)		7.	TCU
8.	Miami		8.	LSU (9)		8.	Penn St.
9.	LSU		9.	TCU (8)		9.	GA Tech
10.	TCU		10.	GA Tech (11)		10.	Boise St.
11.	GA Tech		11.	Oregon (10)		11.	Houston
12.	Oregon		12.	Penn St. (12)		12.	Okla St.
13.	Penn St.		13.	Okla St. (13)		13.	Oregon
14.	OK St.		14.	VaTech (14)		14.	VaTech
15.	VaTech		15.	Houston (15)		15.	LSU
16.	BYU		16.	Ohio St. (17)		16.	Pitt
17.	Houston		17.	Miami (18)		17.	Ohio St.
18.	Ohio St.		18.	Pitt (16)		18.	Oklahoma
19.	Utah		19.	Utah (19)		19.	W. Virginia
20.	Pitt		20.	W. Virginia (20)		20.	Miami
21.	Tx Tech		21.	S. Carolina (21)		21.	Notre Dame
22.	West Virginia		22.	BYU (26)		22.	S. Carolina
23.	S. Carolina		23.	Oklahoma (22)		23.	Ole Miss
24.	Kansas		24.	Notre Dame (25)		24.	Arizona
25.	Oklahoma		25.	Ole Miss (24)		25.	Cal
26.	Notre Dame		26.	Arizona (23)		26.	Wisconsin
27.	Ole Miss		27.	C. Michigan (27)
28.	S. Florida		28.	Cal (28)
29.	Nebraska		29.	Wisconsin (30)
30.	Michigan		30.	Navy (31)
31.	C. Michigan		31.	Kansas (32)
32.	Cal
33.	Arizona

games between top 25 teams next week:
Texas at Oklahoma St.
USC at Oregon

Other losable games for top 25 teams:
Georgia at Florida
Indiana at Iowa
Miami at Wake Forest
Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt
UNC at VaTech
West Virgina at S. Florida
South Carolina at Tennessee

Other Random Thoughts
-Not only does it look like the refs blew the call on Florida's fumble at the goal line, they also failed to call the most obvious excessive celebration of the season.  After all the flags they've thrown this season for people calling attention to themselves, I don't know how they missed somebody high-stepping into the endzone.  I don't for a second believe there's any sort of conspiracy, but you have to believe that Florida's luck with the officials has to run out at some point.

-Worst coaching decision of the day goes to Lane Kiffin for failing to try and move closer for the game winning field goal.  His team had 1st and 10 with about 41 seconds left in position to kick a 44 yard field goal.  Despite the fact that his kicker had already had a 43 yarder blocked after kicking it too low and missed a 47 yarder short, Kiffin decided to play it safe.  They ran toward the middle of the field for no gain, let the clock run down to 4 seconds, spiked the ball, and then attempted the kick.  Not surprisingly, it was blocked after it was kicked too low.  When you're playing the #1 team on the road, you have to take some risks if you want to win the game.

-TCU deserves to skip over some teams above them after their performance, but I'm somewhat skeptical that they will.  Does anybody see LSU getting jumped after their best victory of the year?  It's possible that Iowa could fall after once again barely eking out victory against an inferior opponent.  They probably should jump Boise State, but I don't see that happening either.

-Hardest team to predict this week: BYU.  With two losses and a win over Oklahoma, they have a pretty good case for staying above the Sooners, but with the way they've been shellacked by FSU and TCU since that opening victory, I have to believe at least a few people will simply drop them from their top 25.

-I've previously picked Kansas, Missouri, LSU, Oregon, and Boise St. as overrated.  I was right on the first two.  LSU had its best victory, but that's not really saying much.  Oregon is starting to make a believer out of me, but they really weren't that good the first few weeks of the season regardless of how well they play at the end.  And nobody knows how good Boise State really is.

-Last week I picked Oklahoma, VaTech, Penn State, and Texas Tech to finish higher in the polls than they were at the time.  I guess three out of four ain't bad.

Top 25 Update

A recap of this weekend.
(teams that lost crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update:  actual rankings in parentheses -- I was within one on 26/33 (I knew the bottom half would be tough)

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Florida		1.	Florida (2)		1.	Alabama
2.	Alabama		2.	Alabama (1)		2.	Florida
3.	Texas		3.	Texas (3)		3.	Cincy
4.	VaTech		4.	Cincy (5)		4.	Iowa
5.	Boise St.		5.	USC (4)		5.	Texas
6.	USC		6.	Boise St. (6)		6.	USC
7.	Ohio St.		7.	Iowa (7)		7.	TCU
8.	Cincy		8.	Miami (8)		8.	Miami
9.	Miami		9.	LSU (9)		9.	Penn St.
10.	LSU		10.	TCU (10)		10.	Houston
11.	Iowa		11.	Oregon (12)		11.	OK St.
12.	TCU		12.	Penn St. (13)		12.	GA Tech
13.	Oregon		13.	OK St. (14)		13.	Boise St.
14.	Penn St.		14.	GA Tech (11)		14.	Oregon
15.	Nebraska		15.	BYU (16)		15.	LSU
16.	OK St.		16.	Houston (17)		16.	VaTech
17.	Kansas		17.	Utah (19)		17.	Pitt
18.	BYU		18.	VaTech (15)		18.	Ohio St.
19.	GA Tech		19.	Ohio St. (18)		19.	Tx Tech
20.	Oklahoma		20.	Pitt (20)		20.	West Virginia
21.	S. Florida		21.	W. Virginia (22)		21.	BYU
22.	S. Carolina		22.	Tx Tech (21)		22.	Oklahoma
23.	Houston		23.	Kansas (24)		23.	Utah
24.	Utah		24.	Oklahoma (25)		24.	Nebraska
25.	Notre Dame		25.	Nebraska (29)		25.	Ole Miss
26.	Pitt		26.	S. Florida (28)		26.	Michigan
27.	Auburn		27.	Ole Miss (27)
28.	West Virginia		28.	S. Carolina (23)
29.	Ole Miss		29.	Michigan (30)
30.	Wisconsin		30.	Notre Dame (26)
31.	Missouri		31.	C. Michigan (31)
32.	Arkansas		32.	Cal (33)
			33.	Arizona (32)

games between (projected) top 25 teams next week:

TCU at BYU
Oklahoma at Kansas

other losable games for top 25 teams:

Tennessee at Alabama
Oregon St. at USC
Auburn at LSU
Iowa at Michigan St.
Oregon at Washington
Penn St. at Michigan
Georgia Tech at UVa
South Florida at Pitt
Air Force at Utah
UConn at West Virginia

other random thoughts:

-Other than figuring out how high Iowa and Cincy will rise (my guess: not as much as they deserve to), it's hard for me to imagine the top 17 being much different.  But everything after that is almost a blind guess -- I see a lot of teams that don't deserve to be ranked that high and nowhere else to put them.

-A couple weeks ago I said I was skeptical of Kansas and Missouri -- that seems like a good guess.  And I'm still skeptical of LSU, Oregon, and Boise St.  Add BYU to the list of teams I expect to fall as the season continues.  I expect Oklahoma, VaTech, Texas Tech, and possibly Penn St. to finish the regular season ranked higher than they will be this week.

-Is anybody else completely underwhelmed by what they've seen by Texas so far?  I'm underwhelmed by Florida as well, but that's partially because the bar was set so high in the first place.  Both teams were mighty lucky to escape with wins today.

-If we ranked teams purely based on what we've seen on the field so far this year, the top 5 would have to be: 1.) Alabama, 2.) Cincy, 3.) Iowa, 4.) Florida, 5.) Texas

update: I think it was well-deserved, but I'm still quite surprised that 'bama jumped over Florida to claim the #1 ranking.  I was also surprised that S. Carolina and Notre Dame only dropped one place each, but I think those are fair rankings.

Does Gun Control Work?

I always assumed that states with stricter gun control also had more gun deaths per capita, for two reasons: 1.) I figured more rural areas usually had less crime and since more rural states are more conservative, that they'd also have laxer gun control laws, and 2.) states with more gun deaths would have more motivation to pass stricter gun control laws.   If my assumption were true, it would be easy for anybody to argue that states with fewer gun regulations also have fewer gun deaths.  Apparently I was wrong.

Over at 538 today, Tom Schaller mentioned that, outside of DC, "the ten states with the lowest per-capital gun death rates voted for Obama."  He referenced this chart of firearm deaths per 100,000 residents by state.  If we cross-reference these data with the percent that voted for Obama in each state (here), we get a rather striking picture.

DC is a notable outlier -- it's no surprise that there are more gun deaths there than anywhere else.  But if we look at only the 50 states, the correlation between gun deaths and the percent who voted for Obama is a strikingly high -.63, (p<.001).  If we graph only the 50 states, it's readily apparent that the relationship is quite strong.

The data are almost too perfect -- there don't even appear to be any real outliers.  Indeed, if we look at the original chart in a new way -- color coded by the political leanings of the state -- it again appears almost too perfect.  In the chart below, the state is blue if it voted for both Kerry and Obama, purple if it voted for Bush and Obama, and red if it voted for Bush and McCain in '04 and '08.

24 of the top 25 states voted for Bush in 2004, and and 20 of the 25 bottom states voted for Obama in 2008.  If we break down the average gun deaths by type of state, we get:

red: 13.83
purple: 12.1
blue: 7.47

In other words, blue states have almost half the rate of gun deaths as do red states.  If we regress gun deaths on the percentage voting for Obama, we find out that a 10 percentage point gain in Obama voting is associated with a decrease of 2.9 gun deaths per 100,000 people, or .67 standard deviations (r squared = .402).

So, what does this mean?  Well, I think it's fair to assume that the percentage of people in a state who voted for Obama is fairly reasonable proxy for how liberal a state is -- which should also be a fairly reasonable proxy for how strict a state's gun control laws are.  So it seems almost certain that, controlling for nothing else, states with stricter gun control laws tend to have fewer gun deaths per capita.  Which means that gun control works . . . right?  Not really.  Like I said, this controls for nothing else.  One potentially mediating variable is gun ownership.  I have to believe the rates of gun ownership are fairly strongly correlated with how conservative a state is -- hence states with more guns were less likely to vote for Kerry or Obama.  Though even if that's true, I see two problems with arguing that it invalidates these statistics:

1.) One of the arguments against gun control is that people can -- and do -- safely own guns.  And that guns don't kill people -- people kill people.  But if states with higher rates of gun ownership also have higher rates of gun deaths that calls that assumption into question.

2.) One of the goals of gun control is to reduce both the number of people who own guns and the number of guns each person owns.  The narrative I've heard in the media is that it's not very successful at doing this -- which I find quite plausible -- but it's still possible that gun control reduces gun ownership a little bit, which would mean that gun ownership would be associated both with how much people feel they need guns and rules regarding gun ownership.

One of the commenters on 538 argues that gun deaths is a misleading statistic, and that we should use homicides involving guns instead.  But I disagree.  Gun control doesn't aim only to prevent murders with guns, it also aims to prevent gun accidents (e.g. by requiring child-proof safety locks).  It's certainly worth looking at both, but I'd put the latter above the former in terms of importance.


I find it most interesting that despite having more urban areas (which usually have higher rates of crime), more liberal states have fewer gun deaths.  Indeed, if we were going to conduct a rigorous investigation of whether gun control works or not, we'd certainly have to factor in urbanicity, poverty, non-gun crime rates, gun ownership rates, and a number of other variables.  We'd also want to know if there were any other effects of the gun control policy beside that on gun deaths (e.g. were more people killed with knives, or were there more home invasions b/c robbers knew homeowners were less likely to have guns?)

Anyway, here are the possible conclusions we can draw from these data (and given the limited scope we can't be sure that any one of these conclusions is better than the rest):

1.) The data are faulty -- real life isn't usually that neat and clean, and the list could have been doctored or simply made up

2.) Gun control works -- states that have stricter gun control laws also tend to have fewer gun deaths despite being more urban

3.) Gun control is irrelevant, demographic factors matter a lot more

4.) Gun ownership is dangerous, regardless of whether one is in an urban or rural location


5.) Nothing.  Far more research would be needed to draw any conclusions.

I'll stick with number 5 until I see more evidence.

Top 25 Update

Starting this week, I'll be posting my own top 25 in addition to predicting what the AP voters will think.
(teams that lost crossed out, teams with big wins in green, and team with bad wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses -- I was within one spot on 23/32 and only missed by more than two on Auburn

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Florida		1.	Florida (1)		1.	Florida
2.	Texas		2.	Alabama (2)		2.	Alabama
3.	Alabama		3.	Texas (3)		3.	Texas
4.	LSU		4.	VaTech (4)		4.	VaTech
5.	VaTech		5.	USC (6)		5.	USC
6.	Boise St.		6.	Boise St. (5)		6.	Cincy
7.	USC		7.	Cincy (8)		7.	Ohio St.
8.	Cincy		8.	LSU (10)		8.	TCU
9.	Ohio St.		9.	Ohio St. (7)		9.	Iowa
10.	TCU		10.	TCU (12)		10.	Nebraska
11.	Miami		11.	Miami (9)		11.	Penn St.
12.	Iowa		12.	Iowa (11)		12.	Miami
13.	Oregon		13.	Oregon (13)		13.	LSU
14.	Penn St.		14.	Penn St. (14)		14.	Boise St.
15.	OK St.		15.	Nebraska (15)		15.	Houston
16.	Kansas		16.	OK St. (16)		16.	BYU
17.	Auburn		17.	Kansas (17)		17.	Oklahoma
18.	BYU		18.	BYU (18)		18.	GA Tech
18.	Oklahoma		19.	Oklahoma (19)		19.	Oregon
20.	Ole Miss		20.	GA Tech (20)		20.	S. Florida
21.	Nebraska		21.	S. Florida (21)		21.	S. Carolina
22.	GA Tech		22.	S. Carolina (22)		22.	OK St.
23.	S. Florida		23.	Houston (23)		23.	Kansas
24.	Missouri		24.	Auburn (27)		24.	Auburn
25.	S. Carolina		25.	Utah (24)		25.	West Virginia
26.	Wisconsin		26.	W. Virginia (28)		26.	Notre Dame
27.	Houston		27.	N. Dame (25)		27.	Utah
28.	Georgia		28.	Pitt (26)		28.	Pitt
29.	Stanford		29.	Wisconsin (30)		29.	Wisconsin
30.	Utah		30.	Missouri (31)		30.	Ole Miss
31.	Michigan		31.	Ole Miss (29)
32.	Boston Coll.		32.	Arkansas (32)
33.	Notre Dame

games between top 25 teams next week:

Oklahoma at Texas
S. Carolina at Alabama
VaTech at GA Tech
Cincinnati at S. Florida

other losable games for top 25 teams:

Arkansas at Florida
Boise St. at Tulsa
USC at Notre Dame
Iowa at Wisconsin
Missouri at OK State
Kansas at Colorado
Texas Tech at Nebraska
Utah at Air Force

update: other random thoughts
-I was impressed with how well I did on 23-32 given the number of teams that lost at the bottom of the rankings this week

-The 13-3 loss to Florida is now LSU's most impressive game -- which isn't saying much for a top ten team

-I thought Iowa might jump up in the rankings, but I suppose winning by two points at home against an inconsistent Michigan team that turned the ball over 5 teams isn't really all that impressive.  But if they win next week at Wisconsin, they deserve to be ahead of at least LSU and Miami

-I'm starting to wonder if VaTech and Miami are that good, or if the ACC is that bad

-It's pretty clear that the Big East has fewer elite teams than any other BCS conference, but I think they also have fewer bad teams.  Is any team other than Syracuse even below average?

Top 25 Update

Top 25
Teams that lost crossed out, teams with bad wins in red, and teams with big wins in green
update: actual rankings in parentheses (I was within one on 23/33 and within two on 30/33)

Previous			Projected
1.	Florida		1.	Florida (1)
2.	Texas		2.	Texas (2)
3.	Alabama		3.	Alabama (3)
4.	LSU		4.	LSU (4)
5.	Boise St.		5.	Boise St. (6)
6.	VaTech		6.	VaTech (5)
7.	USC		7.	USC (7)
8.	Oklahoma		8.	Ohio St. (9)
9.	Ohio St.		9.	Cincy (8)
10.	Cincy		10.	TCU (10)
11.	TCU		11.	Miami (11)
12.	Houston		12.	Iowa (12)
13.	Iowa		13.	OK St. (15)
14.	OK State		14.	Penn St. (14)
15.	Penn State		15.	Oregon (13)
16.	Oregon		16.	Kansas (16)
17.	Miami (Fl)		17.	BYU (18)
18.	Kansas		18.	Ole Miss (19)
18.	Georgia		19.	Nebraska (21)
20.	BYU		20.	Oklahoma (20)
21.	Ole Miss		21.	GA Tech (22)
22.	Michigan		22.	Auburn (17)
23.	Nebraska		23.	Missouri (24)
24.	Cal		24.	S. Carolina (25)
25.	GA Tech		25.	S. Florida (23)
26.	Missouri		26.	Georgia (28)
27.	Auburn		27.	Houston (27)
28.	S. Carolina		28.	Utah (30)
29.	S. Florida		29.	Wisconsin (26)
30.	UCLA		30.	N. Dame (33)
31.	Utah		31.	Stanford (29)
32.	Wisconsin		32.	Michigan (31)
33.	Notre Dame		33.	Bos. Coll. (32)

games between top 25 teams next week:

Florida at LSU
'bama at Ole Miss
Nebraska at Missouri

other potentially losable games for top 25 teams

BC at VaTech
Baylor at Oklahoma
Michigan at Iowa
Oregon at UCLA
GaTech at Florida St.

other random thoughts

-LSU once again squeaked by in a game they should've lost.  I'd say they don't deserve to be the #4 team in the country, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good -- now the big question: will they luck out and face a Tebow-less Florida next week (yes, if Urban Meyer has a heart)


-Will Oregon's victory over Cal mean any less to the voters now that Cal's been exposed?  My guess is that it won't.  Update: Looks like I was right -- Oregon inexplicably jumped over Penn St. and Oklahoma St. this week.

-Teams of which I'm skeptical: LSU, Boise St., Oregon, Kansas, BYU, Missouri

-Teams I expect to rise: USC, Oklahoma, Notre Dame

-Update: I'm not really surprised that Auburn shot up in the rankings (I did have them jumping three teams), but I don't understand why a win against 2-3 Tennessee is so meaningful.