Super Committee

What are the odds of a "grand bargain" by the so-called "super committee" this fall?  Below is a table of the 12 members and how their lifetime voting records compare to other members of their respective legislative bodies and caucuses.

One could use any number of rankings services or dissect their voting records in various ways and come up with quite different rankings -- as such, this should be interpreted as a first attempt to gain a rough idea of how liberal or conservative the various members are rather than any sort of authoritative study.

That said, the results are somewhat distressing to those hoping for a productive session.  8 of the 12 members are more liberal/conservative than the median member of their caucus and 9 of 12 have voted with their party more than 90% of the time.  Democrat Max Baucus is slightly more conservative than the median Senator and Fred Upton is slightly more liberal than the median Representative, though Rob Portman has also been mentioned as somebody potentially willing to compromise in news reports despite his conservative voting record.

In the Senate it's plain to see that Harry Reid nominated far more moderate members than did Mitch McConnell (by both relative ranks within their party and absolute voting numbers) -- indeed, the most moderate Republican is more conservative than the least moderate Democrat is liberal.  In the House, the story is more muddled.  Relative to their respective caucuses the Republicans are more moderate, but based on their absolute voting records the Democrats could be seen as slightly more moderate.

On average, the Democrats on the committee are more liberal than 49% of their caucus and have voted with their party 89.3% of the time while the Republicans on the committee are more conservative than 63% of their caucus and have voted with their party 95% of the time.  Based on these metrics, the Democrats could be described as more moderate than are the Republicans.

But the political leanings of the average member from each party may be less important than the potential swing votes.  Any chance of the committee's recommendation receiving 7 votes may hinge on Republicans convincing Max Baucus to go along with their plan or Democrats convincing Fred Upton to go along with theirs.  It seems somewhat less likely that the seven most moderate members across party lines would reach an agreement given that only 4 have more moderate voting records than the median member of their party.

It's too early to give up hope entirely, but the voting records of the members of the committee appear to allow little chance of a productive and civil session.  The better idea would have been to allow the four leaders to appoint one or more members from the opposite party to the committee.

	Senate Democrats				Senate Republicans
		Liberal Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile		Conservative Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile
	Max Baucus	52nd	75.49%	2%	Jon Kyl*	16th	96.20%	66%
	Patty Murray*	26th	91.11%	51%	Rob Portman	12th	96.36%	74%
	John Kerry	24th	91.50%	55%	Pat Toomey	2nd	98.15%	96%
	House Democrats				House Republicans
		Liberal Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile		Conservative Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile
	James Clyburn	121st	89.48%	37%	Fred Upton	218th	84.70%	9%
	Chris Van Hollen	60th	93.45%	69%	Dave Camp	150th	97.05%	37%
	Xavier Becerra	41st	94.49%	79%	Jeb Hensarling	13th	97.80%	95%

*co-chairs

liberal/conservative rank: 1st corresponds to most liberal/conservative member of that body, the Senate has 53 Democrats (including two Independents) and 47 Republicans while the House has 240 Republicans and 193 Democrats

% Voting with Party: The percentage of the member's vote that have aligned with the party position during their career.

Party Percentile: The percentage of their respective caucus who the member is more liberal (in the case of Democrats) or conservative (in the case of Republicans) than: a higher number represents a less moderate politician.