Election Odds #4

After SC/FL Primaries
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 60% (+5)
Clinton 40% (-3)

Obama's big win in SC gives him a boost, but Hillary's leading in the big Super Tuesday states

Republicans
McCain 75% (+20)
Romney 24% (+9)
Huckabee 1% (-14)

McCain is now the man to beat, but don't count out Romney's deep pockets

Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 40% (+3)
McCain 35% (+10)
Clinton 15% (-3)
Romney 8% (+2)
Huckabee 1% (-7)
Bloomberg 1% (--)

Obama and McCain, the most electable Democrat and Republican, look like the two most likely heirs to the throne

By Party
Democratic 55% (-1)
Republican 44% (+1)
Independent 1% (--)

The rise of McCain and Hillary's strong campaign organization make it more likely that a Republican will be in office next January

Election Odds #3

Version 3:
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 55% (-5)
Clinton 43% (+8)
Edwards 2% (-3)

Republicans
McCain 55% (+15)
Huckabee 20% (-10)
Romney 15% (+1)
Giuliani 10% (-5)



Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 37% (-3)
McCain 25% (+7)
Clinton 18% (+3)
Huckabee 8% (-4)
Romney 6% (+2)
Giuliani 4% (-1)
Bloomberg 1% (--)
Edwards 1% (-3)

By Party
Democratic 56%
Republican 43%
Independent 1%

Election Odds #2

Version 2:
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee:

Democrats
Obama 60%
Clinton 35%
Edwards 5%

Republicans
McCain 40%
Huckabee 30%
Giuliani 15%
Romney 14%
Thompson 1%


Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 40%
McCain 18%
Clinton 15%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 5%
Edwards 4%
Romney 4%
Bloomberg 1%
Thompson 1%

Election Odds

Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee:

Democrats
Obama 65%
Edwards 20%
Clinton 14%
Richardson 1%

Republicans
Huckabee 25%
McCain 24%
Romney 23%
Giuliani 22%
Thompson 5%
Paul 1%


Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 45%
Huckabee 14%
Edwards 11%
McCain 10%
Giuliani 8%
Romney 6%
Clinton 3%
Bloomberg 1%
Richardson 1%
Thompson 1%