Is the SEC the Best Conference?

There are a million ways to answer the question, but the best evidence would be head-to-head match-ups with non-conference teams. Here are the SEC's victories over other BCS conference teams (in order from most to least impressive):

Florida (7-5) beat S. Florida (7-4) at home, 38-14
#8 Arkansas (10-2) won at #19 Texas A&M (9-3), 24-17
#17 Alabama (9-3) beat Penn St. (7-5) at home, 24-0
#11 LSU (10-2) beat W. Virginia (7-4) at home, 20-14
Kentucky (6-6) won at Louisville (6-6), 23-16
#18 S. Carolina (9-3) won at Clemson (6-6), 29-7
Georgia (6-6) beat Georgia Tech (6-6) at home, 42-34
#2 Auburn (12-0) beat Clemson (6-6) at home, 27-24
#11 LSU (10-2) beat N. Carolina (7-5) on a neutral field, 30-24
#17 Alabama (9-3) won at Duke(3-9), 62-13

That the two most impressive victories were against South Florida and Texas A&M really says it all about this list. SEC teams have, collectively, beaten only one ranked non-conference team and two other teams (both from the weak Big East) with fewer than five losses. In short, the SEC's victories against non-conference teams tell us almost nothing about the strength of the SEC.

What about the non-conference losses? Here are the SEC's losses to other BCS conference teams (in order from least to most embarrassing):

Vanderbilt (2-10) lost at home to Northwestern (7-5), 23-21
Tennessee (6-6) lost at home to #1 Oregon (11-0), 48-13
Vanderbilt (2-10) lost at UConn (7-4), 40-21
Florida (7-5) lost at #22 Florida St. (9-3), 31-7
Vanderbilt (2-10) lost at home to Wake Forest (3-9), 34-13
Georgia (6-6) lost at Colorado (5-7), 29-27

The list doesn't include Ole Miss's loss to Jacksonville St. and also doesn't shed a whole lot of light on the SEC's strength, as most of the match-ups were lopsided or involved Vanderbilt.

Overall, the SEC was 10-6 against BCS conference teams and 1-2 against ranked BCS conference teams. The conference was 1-5 when playing teams with fewer losses; 2-0 when playing teams with identical records; and 7-1 when playing teams with worse records. The conference was 5-3 at home; 4-3 on the road; and 1-0 on a neutral field.

So, what does this tell us about the strength of the SEC? Not much. 16 games played by a conference of 12 teams is almost never going to tell us all that much. It seems obvious both that the SEC isn't far worse than every other conference but also that it isn't far better than every other conference this year. I'm not sure anybody would disagree that the SEC has been the strongest conference over the past five years, but we simply don't have enough evidence to conclusively claim the same this year.

Top 25 Update

How things appear after today's games, with strengths and weaknesses of each team:

teams that look really good so far

1.) Oregon
strengths: outscored Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters; dominant in 2nd half all season; explosive offense
weaknesses: outscored in the first half by Arizona St.; let Washington St. and Tennessee hang around too long

2.) Boise St.
strengths: beat VaTech; handled Oregon St.
weaknesses: no decisive victories over top teams; weak schedule

3.) TCU
strengths: beat Oregon St.; crushed Baylor; crushed Air Force
weaknesses: were only up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.


teams that might be really good

4.) Auburn
strengths: beat South Carolina; beat Arkansas; the next Tim Tebow at QB

weaknesses: almost lost to Mississippi St.; almost lost to Kentucky; almost lost to Clemson

5.) Alabama
strengths: crushed Florida; beat Arkansas; dominant running game
weaknesses: lost to S. Carolina; inconsistent passing game; young defense

6.) Michigan St.
strengths: beat Wisconsin; beat Michigan
weaknesses: needed a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame; barely beat Northwestern

7.) Arizona
strengths: soundly beat Iowa; crushed Washington
weaknesses: lost to Oregon St.

8.) Missouri
strengths: beat Oklahoma
weaknesses: no other victories over top teams

9.) Oklahoma
strengths: destroyed Florida St.; beat Air Force; beat Texas
weaknesses: barely escaped Cincy

10.) Wisconsin
strengths: beat Ohio St.; beat Iowa
weaknesses: struggled far too often against inferior teams

11.) Ohio St.
strengths: handled Miami; dynamic QB
weaknesses: escaped Illinois; no victories over top teams

12.) Stanford
strengths: beat USC; destroyed UCLA; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

13.) Utah
strengths: beat Pitt; blew out Iowa St.
weaknesses: only beat Pitt by 3 in OT; have yet to play a top team

14.) Florida State
strengths: beat Miami soundly; blew out 4 of other 6 opponents
weaknesses: blown out by Oklahoma; barely beat BC


teams that might be pretty good

15.) South Carolina
strengths: beat 'bama
weaknesses: lost to Kentucky; struggled to put away Vandy 

16.) Nebraska
strengths: beat Oklahoma St.; destroyed Washington; destroyed Kansas St
weaknesses: lost to Texas; only beat South Dakota St. 17-3

17.) Iowa
strengths: soundly beat Penn St.; beat Michigan; elite defense
weaknesses: soundly beaten by Arizona; no victories over top teams

18.) LSU
strengths: beat Florida; played Auburn close; luckiest coach on Earth
weaknesses: almost blew a huge lead against a depleted UNC team; should've lost to Tennessee at home; almost lost to W. Virginia at home; took a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter; inconsistent offense


teams that haven't proven much of anything

19.) USC
strengths: crushed Cal; almost beat Stanford
weaknesses: lost to Washington; no victories over top teams

20.) Virginia Tech
strengths: almost beat Boise St.; beat NC State
weaknesses: lost to James Madison

21.) Oklahoma St.
strengths: undefeated; high-scoring offense
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Texas A&M; gave up 51 points to Nebraska

22.) Arkansas
strengths: almost beat Alabama; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: barely beat Texas A&M; gave up 65 points to Auburn; unimpressive win vs. Ole Miss; interception-prone QB

23.) Miami
strengths: crushed Pitt; crushed UNC
weaknesses: crushed by Florida St.; handled by Ohio St.; interception-prone QB

24.) Mississippi State
strengths: beat Florida
weaknesses: barely beat UAB;

25.) Nevada
strengths: destroyed Cal; prolific offense
weaknesses: struggled to put away BYU; lost to Hawaii


teams with resumes no less impressive


NC State
Pitt
Oregon St.
Baylor

Top 25 Update

How things appear after today's games, with strengths and weaknesses of each team:

teams that look really good so far

1.) Oregon
strengths: outscored Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters; dominant in 2nd half all season; explosive offense
weaknesses: outscored in the first half by Arizona St.; let Washington St. and Tennessee hang around too long

2.) Boise St.
strengths: handled Oregon St.
weaknesses: escaped VaTech

3.) TCU
strengths: beat Oregon St.; crushed Baylor
weaknesses: were only up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.

4.) Oklahoma
strengths: destroyed Florida St.; beat Air Force; beat Texas
weaknesses: barely escaped Cincy


teams that might be really good

5.) Alabama
strengths: crushed Florida; beat Arkansas; dominant running game;
weaknesses: lost to S. Carolina; inconsistent passing game; young defense


6.) Auburn
strengths: beat South Carolina; beat Arkansas; the next Tim Tebow
weaknesses: almost lost to Mississippi St.; almost lost to Kentucky; almost lost to Clemson

7.) Michigan St.
strengths: beat Wisconsin; beat Michigan
weaknesses: needed a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame

8.) Arizona
strengths: soundly beat Iowa
weaknesses: lost to Oregon St.

9.) Iowa
strengths: soundly beat Penn St.; beat Michigan; elite defense
weaknesses: soundly beaten by Arizona; no victories over top teams

10.) Wisconsin
strengths: beat Ohio St.
weaknesses: struggled far too often against inferior teams



11.) Ohio St.
strengths: handled Miami; dynamic QB
weaknesses: escaped Illinois; no victories over top teams

12.) Stanford
strengths: beat USC; destroyed UCLA; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

13.) Utah
strengths: beat Pitt
weaknesses: only beat Pitt by 3 in OT; have yet to play a top team

14.) Florida State
strengths: beat Miami soundly; blew out 4 of other 6 opponents
weaknesses: blown out by Oklahoma; barely beat BC


teams that might be pretty good

15.) South Carolina
strengths: beat 'bama
weaknesses: lost to Kentucky; inconsistent offense 



16.) Nebraska
strengths: destroyed Washington; destroyed Kansas St.; talented QB
weaknesses: lost to Texas; only beat South Dakota St. 17-3; young QB

17.) LSU
strengths: beat Florida; luckiest coach on Earth
weaknesses: almost blew a huge lead against a depleted UNC team; should've lost to Tennessee at home; almost lost to W. Virginia at home; took a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter; inconsistent offense; playing poorly and using poor strategy is bound to backfire eventually

18.) Texas
strengths: beat Nebraska; loads of talent
weaknesses: blown out at home by UCLA; no impressive victories; inexperienced QB




teams that haven't proven much of anything

19.) Oklahoma St.
strengths: undefeated; high-scoring offense
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Texas A&M


20.) Arkansas
strengths: almost beat Alabama; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: almost lost to Georgia; barely beat Texas A&M; interception-prone QB; suspect defense

21.) West Virginia
strengths: 5-1
weaknesses: no really impressive victories; almost lost to Marshall


22.) USC
strengths: crushed Cal; almost beat Stanford
weaknesses: lost to Washington; no victories over top teams

23.) Virginia Tech
strengths: almost beat Boise St.; beat NC State
weaknesses: lost to James Madison

24.) Missouri
strengths: undefeated; beat San Diego St.

weaknesses: haven't beaten any other teams with a winning record

25.) Nevada
strengths: destroyed Cal; prolific offense
weaknesses: struggled to put away BYU; lost to Hawaii

teams with resumes no less impressive




Mississippi St.
Miami

Kansas St.
North Carolina
NC State
Rutgers
Oregon St.

Top 25 Update

How things appear after today's games, with strengths and weaknesses of each team:

teams that look really good so far

1.) Oregon
strengths: outscored Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters; dominant in 2nd half all season; explosive offense
weaknesses: outscored in the first half by Arizona St.; let Washington St. and Tennessee hang around too long

2.) Ohio St.
strengths: handling Miami
weaknesses: escaping Illinois

3.) Boise St.
strengths: handling Oregon St.
weaknesses: escaping VaTech

4.) TCU
strengths: beat Oregon St.; crushed Baylor
weaknesses: were only up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.

5.) Oklahoma
strengths: destroyed Florida St.; beat Air Force; beat Texas
weaknesses: barely escaped Cincy


teams that might be really good

6.) Nebraska
strengths: destroyed Washington; destroyed Kansas St.; talented QB
weaknesses: haven't played a top team; only beat South Dakota St. 17-3; young QB

7.) Auburn
strengths: beat South Carolina
weaknesses: almost lost to Mississippi; almost lost to Kentucky; almost lost to Clemson

8.) South Carolina
strengths: beat 'bama
weaknesses: no other really impressive victories; inconsistent offense

9.) Alabama
strengths: crushed Florida; beat Arkansas; dominant running game; probably better than many teams above them
weaknesses: lost to S. Carolina; inconsistent passing game; young defense


teams that are probably pretty good

10.) Michigan St.
strengths: beat Wisconsin; beat Michigan

weaknesses: needed a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame

11.) Arizona
strengths: soundly beat Iowa
weaknesses: lost to Oregon St.

12.) Iowa
strengths: soundly beat Penn St.; elite defense
weaknesses: soundly beaten by Arizona

13.) Arkansas
strengths: almost beat Alabama; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: almost lost to Georgia; barely beat Texas A&M; interception-prone QB

14.) Stanford
strengths: beat USC; destroyed UCLA; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

15.) Utah
strengths: beat Pitt; blew out Iowa St.
weaknesses: only beat Pitt by 3 in OT; have yet to play a top team

16.) Florida State
strengths: beat Miami; blew out 4 of other 5 opponents
weaknesses: blown out by Oklahoma



teams that might be pretty good

17.) Nevada
strengths: destroyed Cal; prolific offense
weaknesses: struggled to put away BYU

18.) LSU
strengths: beat Florida; luckiest coach on Earth
weaknesses: almost blew a huge lead against a depleted UNC team; should've lost to Tennessee at home; almost lost to W. Virginia at home; took a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter; inconsistent offense; playing poorly and using poor strategy is bound to backfire eventually

19.) Air Force
strengths: almost beat Oklahoma on the road; beat Navy; strong ground game
weaknesses: only beat Wyoming by 6; less talent than top teams



20.) Oregon St.
strengths: beat Arizona
weaknesses: lost to Boise/TCU

21.) North Carolina State
strengths: soundly beat Georgia Tech; beat Cincy; dynamic QB
weaknesses: blew large lead against Virginia Tech; barely beat UCF


Teams that haven't really earned a spot in the top 25, but I can't just leave the rest blank

22.) Wisconsin
strengths: managed to win 5 games
weaknesses: struggled far too often against inferior teams

23.) Texas
strengths: played in the national title game last year; beat Texas Tech; loads of talent
weaknesses: blown out at home by UCLA; no impressive victories; inexperienced QB

24.) Oklahoma St.
strengths: undefeated; high-scoring offense
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Texas A&M

25.) West Virginia
strengths: 4-1
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Marshall


teams with resumes no less impressive

Miami
Florida
Missouri

I'm skeptical that South Carolina or Auburn are legitimate top 10 teams, but Auburn has to be above S. Carolina, who has to be above Alabama, who I'm pretty sure is a legitimate top 10 team (at least).  On a related note, I'd be shocked if Alabama won out and didn't go to the national championship game over an undefeated Boise State, TCU, Utah, or Nevada.

Top 25 Update

After 5 weeks of football, we now have enough info to start making some educated guesses as to which are the best teams in college football.  Here's how I'd rank the top 25, with the most impressive and least impressive thing that each team has done:

teams that are probably really good

1.) Alabama
most impressive: crushing Florida
least impressive: getting down early vs. Arkansas

2.) Oregon
most impressive: outscoring Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters
least impressive: being outscored in the first half by Arizona St.

3.) Ohio St.
most impressive: handling Miami
least impressive: escaping Illinois

4.) Boise St.
most impressive: handling Oregon St.
least impressive: escaping VaTech

teams that might be really good

5.) TCU
most impressive: crushing Baylor?
least impressive: being up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.

6.) Oklahoma
most impressive: destroying Florida St.
least impressive: barely escaping Cincy

7.) Nebraska
most impressive: destroying Washington
least impressive: beating South Dakota St. 17-3

8.) Arkansas
most impressive: almost beating Alabama
least impressive: almost losing to Georgia

9.) Arizona
most impressive: soundly beating Iowa
least impressive: barely beating Cal

10.) Iowa
most impressive: soundly beating Penn St.
being soundly beaten by Arizona

teams that are probably pretty good

11.) Florida
most impressive: not losing its first 4 games despite trying pretty hard to do so
least impressive: being crushed by Alabama

12.) Stanford
most impressive: destroying UCLA
least impressive: being outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

13.) Auburn
most impressive: beating South Carolina
least impressive: almost losing to Mississippi

14.) Utah
most impressive: beating Pitt
least impressive: only beating Pitt by 3 in OT

teams that might be pretty good

15.) Michigan St.
most impressive: beating Wisconsin
least impressive: needing a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame

16.) Michigan
most impressive: its offense in every game
least impressive: its defense in every game

17.) Miami
most impressive: destroying Pitt
least impressive: every ball Jacory Harris floats up in the air hoping it gets caught by his team

18.) Nevada
most impressive: destroying Cal
least impressive: struggling to put away BYU

19.) LSU
most impressive: somehow winning every game they've played
least impressive: the offense, almost blowing a huge lead against a depleted UNC team, almost losing to Tennessee at home, almost losing to W. Virginia at home, taking a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter, and being far more talented than every team they've played but still routinely being outplayed . . . also, why wasn't LSU flagged on the penultimate play against UT when the player removed his helmet and threw it to the ground?  I'd have to surmise it was b/c the refs thought the game was over.  Oops.

20.) Air Force
most impressive: almost beating Oklahoma on the road
least impressive: only beating Wyoming by 6

teams that are probably above average and could possibly be better, but we're not really sure

21.) South Carolina
most impressive: beating Georgia?
least impressive: that their signature win came when they scored 17 points against a now 1-4 team

22.) Wisconsin
most impressive: managing to win their first 4 games
least impressive: struggling to win too many of their first 4 games

23.) Texas
most impressive: playing in the national title game last year
least impressive: being blown out at home by UCLA

23.) Florida State
most impressive: blowing out 4 of their 5 opponents
least impressive: getting blown out by Oklahoma

24.) North Carolina State
most impressive: soundly beating Georgia Tech
least impressive: blowing a large lead against Virginia Tech

25.) Kansas St.
most impressive: beating above average teams UCLA and Iowa St.
least impressive: only beating UCF by 4


As you can see, there aren't many teams that have done much to prove themselves this year.  I'm confident that the top 10 teams are all good teams that deserve to be ranked in the top 25, but the next 10 are dicey and after #20 we might as well just pull 5 teams out of a hat.

Has Opinion on Health Care Shifted?

For months leading up to the passage of health care, the pollster.com average found a net plurality of around 5-12 percentage points disapproved of the plan.  The first poll taken after passage, however, found the public in favor of the plan by a 49-40 margin.  Was that just an outlier, or has opinion actually shifted?

There have been five polls polls taken after passage of the bill.  Here's how they stack up:

	Favor	Oppose	Net
WaPo	46	50	-4
CBS	42	46	-4
Quinnipiac	40	49	-9
USA Today-Gallup	49	40	9
YouGov	50	50	0
average	45.4	47	-1.6

Across these five polls, a plurality still disapprove of health care -- but only a very slight one.  Let's compare them to the last five polls released before passage:

	Favor	Oppose	Net
Bloomberg	38	50	-12
CNN	39	59	-20
CBS	37	48	-11
Quinnipiac	36	54	-18
Rasmussen	41	54	-13
average	38.2	53	-14.8

The last five polls were among the most negative of the past year.  Whether this is due to the build-up before passage or simply the five that happened to be last, I can't quite say.  Comparing these 10, we see a 13 point swing in net approval of the health care bill.  But this might not be the right comparison groups.  Given the different questions and samples of the polls, it might be better to compare polls taken by the same organization before and after.  There have been three of these:

	After			Before
	Favor	Oppose	Net	Favor	Oppose	Net
CBS	42	46	-4	37	48	-11
Quinnipiac	40	49	-9	36	54	-18
YouGov	50	50	0	48	53	-5
average	44	48.33	-4.33	40.33	51.67	-11.33

Looking at only these three, we find a 7 point swing in net approval -- and we still see a small plurality (though not majority) opposed to the bill.

The trend could be just a blip, could be based on a few faulty polls, or could be a genuine shift in how Americans view the health care bill (or at least how they report they feel).  If the first two are true, new polls will pretty quickly bear this out.  But there are two fairly good reasons to believe that the last one is, in fact, happening:

1.) The initial results were misleading.  Take the these results from a Bloomberg poll taken right before the vote in which 38% favored the bill and 50% were opposed

Health care is so complicated it is hard for the average American to understand the proposals that are currently being discussed
75% Agree, 23% Disagree

The cost of doing nothing on health care will be greater than the cost of the proposed plan to overhaul it
51% Agree, 40% Disagree

The health care system is fine the way it is
20% Agree, 79% Disagree

In short, people don't know much about the health care bill but they want to do something to fix the broken health care system.

2.) As 538 points out, a small but meaningful number of people opposed the bill b/c it wasn't liberal enough.  The approval numbers among Independents and Republicans in the new USA Today/Gallup poll is roughly similar to other previous polls, but the approval numbers among Democrats are much higher.

In the last poll before the bill passed (and outlier in terms of negativity toward the bill), conducted by CNN, 59% reported that they were opposed to the bill -- but 13% reported opposing the bill b/c it wasn't liberal enough.  In other words, 52% of the population either favored the bill or thought it wasn't liberal enough while 43% opposed the bill b/c it was too liberal.

The Pirates' Turnaround: Where's the Proof?

After a multi-part fire sale and two consecutive years of record draft expenditures, the Pirates' brass claims to have transformed the system so that the team can now build from within.  But where's the evidence of this?

In a 30 team league, only two Pirates ranked among the top 100 prospects, their fewest since 2005, (all-time list of Pirates who have ranked among BA's top 100 ) -- only two organizations had fewer this year.  Even worse, it appears that only four would rank among the top 200 or so . . . and three of these four are slated to make their major league debuts this year.

So even if those three pan out, where does this leave the team next year and down the road?  Will lower rated players and new draft picks shine this summer and move up the ranks?  While that might have seemed like a legitimate hope five years ago, it hasn't happened much recently.

When we look at the past couple years, that possibility looks less likely than one might imagine.  Of last year's top 10 prospects, one (McCutchen) moved up to the bigs, three maintained their positions (Alvarez, Tabata, and Lincoln), and the other 6 dropped out of the top 10.  If we go back another year to the 2008 top 10, we see that only two (McCutchen and Lincoln) made the bigs or remain top prospects.  So even if we assume that the top four will pan out, the past few years don't lend much evidence that numbers 5-10 will move up the ranks.

Indeed, if we go back further and examine the Pirates' top ten prospects over the past 7 years we see that only one player (Steve Pearce, #8-2006/#3-2007) has moved from the bottom half to the top half of the list in the past 5.  As the table below shows, 17 of the 18 prospects ranked 5-10 dropped off the list the following year (1, Pearce, moved up to the majors) between 2007 and 2010.  Between 2004 and 2007, however, only 4 dropped off the list the following year while 7 remained on the list and 8 moved up to the majors.

Pirates Prospects #5-10 the following year

years	steady	up	down	majors	dropped
2009-10	0	0	0	0	6
2008-09	0	0	0	0	6
2007-08	0	1	0	0	5
2006-07	0	0	0	6	0
2005-06	0	3	1	1	1
2004-05	0	2	0	1	3

As you might notice from the tables I linked to, all of the prospects who topped out in the bottom five and went on to become impact major leaguers -- Nate McLouth (#6, 2006), Matt Capps (#10, 2006), Freddy Sanchez (#7, 2004), and Ryan Doumit (#10, 2004) -- were from the earlier time period.  Daniel McCutchen is the only name that stands out from 2007-09 who could potentially be added to that list.  And maybe it's just my imagination, but it seems that the lists have recently been dominated by first-round draft picks and outside acquisitions while in the past there were more later round draft picks (e.g. Zach Duke, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell) who ascended up the list.

Of course, maybe this year will be different.  After all, in addition to standouts Alvarez and Sanchez, they have five former top 100 prospects (Jose Tabata, Gorkys Hernandez, Brad Lincoln, Neil Walker, and Tim Alderson) in their system along with a number of later-round selections from the past couple years who signed for over-slot bonuses.  Maybe the new management team's draft and development brilliance will begin to shine through this year (and, given the discussion above, it might be imperative that it does).  But such an occurrence would stand in stark contrast to recent trends.

I suppose the best measure may come when Baseball America ranks farm systems again -- the Pirates ranked 18th last year.  Though, given the context, I'd argue that next year's rating might be far more important.

As a Pirates fan, I very much want to believe that new management has transformed the minor league system.  But I see very little objective evidence that it has.

Final Top 25 Update

Even though I think bowl games are meaningless, I couldn't resist one last update.  Here's how the bowl season played out (teams that lost crossed out):

 

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Alabama		1.	Alabama		1.	Alabama
2.	Texas		2.	Florida		2.	Florida
3.	TCU		3.	Boise State		3.	Texas
4.	Cincinnati		4.	Texas		4.	Boise State
5.	Florida		5.	Ohio State		5.	TCU
6.	Boise State		6.	TCU		6.	Ohio State
7.	Oregon		7.	Cincinnati		7.	Iowa
8.	Ohio State		8.	Iowa		8.	Cincinnati
9.	Georgia Tech		9.	Penn State		9.	Penn State
10.	Iowa		10.	VA Tech		10.	VA Tech
11.	Penn State		11.	Oregon		11.	Oregon
12.	Virginia Tech		12.	GA Tech		12.	GA Tech
13.	LSU		13.	BYU		13.	Pitt
14.	Miami (Fla.)		14.	Pitt		14.	Nebraska
15.	Brigham Young		15.	Nebraska		15.	Wisconsin
16.	Oregon State		16.	LSU		16.	LSU
17.	Pittsburgh		17.	Miami (Fla.)		17.	Miami (Fla.)
18.	West Virginia		18.	Utah		18.	Tex Tech
19.	Stanford		19.	Wisconsin		19.	BYU
20.	Nebraska		20.	C. Michigan		20.	Oregon St.
21.	Okla St.		21.	Tex Tech		21.	USC
22.	Arizona		22.	Oregon St.		22.	Ole Miss
23.	Utah		23.	USC		23.	Rutgers
24.	Wisconsin		24.	Clemson		24.	Stanford
25.	C. Michigan		25.	Ole Miss		25.	W. Virginia
26.	E. Carolina		26.	W. Virginia		26.	C. Michigan
27.	Houston		27.	Stanford
28.	Texas Tech		28.	OK State
29.	USC		29.	Rutgers
30.	Northwestern		30.	Georgia
31.	Clemson		31.	Navy
32.	Cal		32.	Oklahoma
33.	Ole Miss
34.	UNC
35.	Oklahoma
36.	Tennessee
37.	Missouri

 
Other Random Thoughts

-I don't attach much, if any, meaning to the outcomes of the bowl games.  The teams often have layoffs of a month or more, coaching staffs turnover, seniors start thinking about the NFL, teams play in weird places and try out new schemes, and so on . . . In the end, all but one of them is an exhibition game and the National Championship Game has had more than its share of fluky results as well.

-I'm not sure if I've ever seen two less impressive teams in the title game.  Despite Texas trying very hard to lose the game, it took Alabama 58 minutes to seal the deal.  In the end, 'bama only passed for 58 yards and averaged 4.0 yards per rush.  Despite Texas' offensive ineptitude, they actually outgained 'bama.  It's impossible to say whether the game wouldn't turned out differently had McCoy not gotten hurt, but I'm pretty darn sure that McCoy wouldn't have finished 15/40 with 4 INT's.

-Here are the final conference records for the bowl games.  Again, not that this means much:

Conf.	W	L	%
Big East	4	2	0.667
SEC	6	4	0.600
Big Ten	4	3	0.571
Pac 10	3	4	0.429
ACC	3	4	0.429
Big XII	3	5	0.375

Are the Pirates Really a "Small-Market" Team?

In today's posting on the Pittsburgh Baseball Club blog, Pirates Columnist Dejan Kovacevic takes issue with those who call Pittsburgh a "small-market" team.  He cites a list of US television markets ranked by size to show that there are a number of teams based in smaller markets than Pittsburgh.  Using that same list and simply dividing by two when a market has two teams, we end up with the table below of teams ranked by TV market size.  The Pirates rank 25th out of 30 teams.

It seems to me that ranking at the 17th percentile in terms of market size would merit the term "small-market".  To make matters worse, a number of teams below the Pirates have sizable fan bases in nearby large markets. The Orioles have a numbers of fans in the DC/Hagerstown and Norfolk/Portsmouth/Newport News areas and the Reds have fans in the Columbus and Nashville areas.  All four of these markets are made up around a million households or more.  What other large market contains a significant number of Pirates fans?  Harrisburg?  The closest team above the Pirates are the Cardinals, who have a number of fans in nearby Memphis.  In short, the only teams that I'm confident don't have more people within their area of influence (or "country of baseball") are San Diego, Kansas City, and Milwaukee.  Even if it's the case that these three teams are in smaller markets, that doesn't disprove the notion that Pittsburgh is a small market -- remember, it's small market; not smallest market.

In terms of his other points, I agree that market-size is not a huge issue for the Steelers and Penguins -- partially due to salary caps in their respective leagues and partially due to the immense popularity of the two teams -- and that a market, to some extent, is what a teams makes of it.  I guess the demarcation is between saying that the Pirates are hampered between being in a small market and saying that the Pirates can never compete because they're in a small market.  The former is demonstrably true, while the latter is demonstrably false.

Rank	Team	Designated Market Area (DMA)	TV Households
1	Yankees	New York, NY (/2)	3,746,765
2	Mets	New York, NY (/2)	3,746,765
3	Phillies	Philadelphia, PA	2,955,190
4	Dodgers	Los Angeles, CA (/2)	2,829,585
5	Angels	Los Angeles, CA (/2)	2,829,585
6	Rangers	Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX	2,544,410
7	Red Sox	Boston, MA (Manchester, NH)	2,410,180
8	Blue Jays	Toronto (est*)	2,400,000
9	Braves	Atlanta, GA	2,387,520
10	Nationals	Washington, DC (Hagerstown, MD)	2,335,040
11	Astros	Houston, TX	2,123,460
12	Tigers	Detroit, MI	1,890,220
13	Diamondbacks	Phoenix, AZ	1,873,930
14	Mariners	Seattle-Tacoma, WA	1,833,990
15	Rays	Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), FL	1,805,810
16	Cubs	Chicago, IL (/2)	1,750,505
17	White Sox	Chicago, IL (/2)	1,750,505
18	Twins	Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN	1,732,050
19	Rockies	Denver, CO	1,539,380
20	Marlins	Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL	1,538,090
21	Indians	Cleveland-Akron (Canton), OH	1,520,750
22	Giants	San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA (/2)	1,251,700
23	A's	San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA (/2)	1,251,700
24	Cardinals	St. Louis, MO	1,249,450
25	Pirates	Pittsburgh, PA	1,154,950
26	Orioles	Baltimore, MD	1,093,170
27	Padres	San Diego, CA	1,073,390
28	Royals	Kansas City, MO	941,360
29	Reds	Cincinnati, OH	918,670
30	Brewers	Milwaukee, WI	901,790

notes: Dividing markets in half when that market has two teams results in misleading numbers, both because fan bases aren't split 50/50 and because most of those teams have geographic bases that cover other markets (e.g. the Yankees and Hartford, the Giants and Sacramento, and the Mariners and Portland (OR)). The figure for Toronto was estimated based on the fact that Toronto's metro area of 5.5 million people is slightly larger than the metro area for Atlanta.  I don't know what their actual Nielsen-equivalent number of households would be, but it's clearly much larger than the Pirates.

Top 25 Update

How this weekend played out:
(Teams that lost crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green)
update: actual rankings in parentheses -- I was within 1 for 19/30 teams

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Florida		1.	Alabama (1)		1.	Alabama
2.	Alabama		2.	Texas (2)		2.	Texas
3.	Texas		3.	TCU (3)		3.	Cincinnati
4.	TCU		4.	Cincinnati (4)		4.	TCU
5.	Cincinnati		5.	Florida (5)		5.	Florida
6.	Boise State		6.	Boise State (6)		6.	Boise State
7.	Oregon		7.	Oregon (7)		7.	Oregon
8.	Ohio State		8.	Ohio State (8)		8.	Ohio State
9.	Iowa		9.	Iowa (10)		9.	Iowa
10.	Penn State		10.	Penn State (11)		10.	Penn State
11.	Virginia Tech		11.	Virginia Tech (12)		11.	Virginia Tech
12.	Georgia Tech		12.	Georgia Tech (9)		12.	Georgia Tech
13.	Oregon State		13.	LSU (13)		13.	Oregon State
14.	Pitt		14.	Oregon St. (16)		14.	LSU
15.	LSU		15.	Pitt (17)		15.	Miami (Fla.)
16.	BYU		16.	BYU (15)		16.	West Virginia
17.	Miami (Fla.)		17.	Miami (Fla.) (14)		17.	Pitt
18.	Houston		18.	OK State (21)		18.	Stanford
19.	California		19.	Stanford (19)		19.	Nebraska
20.	USC		20.	West Virginia (18)		20.	Arizona
21.	Nebraska		21.	Nebraska (20)		21.	Wisconsin
22.	OK State		22.	Arizona (22)		22.	OK State
23.	Stanford		23.	Wisconsin (24)		23.	Clemson
24.	West Virginia		24.	Utah (23)		24.	Tex Tech
25.	Clemson		25.	Tex Tech (28)		25.	USC
26.	Utah		26.	USC (29)		26.	UNC
27.	Wisconsin		27.	Clemson (31)
28.	Tex Tech		28.	Ole Miss (33)
29.	Arizona		29.	Northwestern (30)
30.	Ole Miss		30.	C. Michigan (25)
31.	Northwestern
32.	C. Michigan

Other Random Thoughts

-Despite a number of exciting games, that was the least interesting second half of a season in recent memory -- zero (0) major upsets and virtually no BCS drama.  At least 'bama v. Texas should be an interesting match-up in the title game.

-Nebraska and Pitt both lost, in part, because of ultra-conservative play-calling late in the game.  Both have good defenses, but the coaches need to realize that good offense beats good defense right now in college football . . . and their teams were playing two of the best offenses in the country.  In Pitt's case, it marks the second time they've lost this year after being up 14 points in the 4th quarter.

-Worst play call by Pitt: an inside hand-off to their fullback on 3rd and 24 in the 3rd quarter.  2nd worst play call: a play-action pass (that resulted in a sack) on 4th down with 10 seconds left and 50+ yards away from FG range.

-It appeared that Pelini's decision to simply move the ball to the middle of the field on 3rd and 6 worked out well when they made a go ahead FG on the next play with 1:44 left.  But 1:44 is an awful lot of time for Colt McCoy to move his team into FG range.

-Speaking of McCoy, he almost made one of the dumbest plays of all time when he inexplicably let the game clock tick down to only 7 seconds remaining before snapping the ball.  Despite the initial controversy, there's absolutely no doubt that there was, in fact, 1 second left when his pass hit the ground.  But, still . . . what was he thinking?

-Somebody said there was an ACC title game today?  Did anybody else hear that rumor?

-Predicted Heisman voting:
1.) Ingram
2.) McCoy
3.) Suh
4.) Gerhart
5.) Tebow
6.) Spiller
7.) Tate

-My Heisman Ballot:
1.) Ingram
2.) Suh
3.) Spiller

update: I got the top 5 in the Heisman voting right, though time will tell how close I was on the order.  I think Suh might be higher and McCoy lower than I originally predicted.