And the best BCS conference is . . .

For those of you who like to argue about which conference is the best, here's the complete list of how each BCS conference fared each other BCS conference along with the conference's overall record against non-conference BCS teams and Top 25 non-conference BCS teams. Games against Notre Dame were not included, nor were Washington's win over Boise St. or UCLA's win over BYU.

BCS Conferences: Games and Record vs. Other BCS Conf.
Conf.	Big E.			ACC			Big 12			Big 10			Pac 10			SEC			Record			v. Top25
Big E.				4	-	3	0	-	0	0	-	3	1	-	1	2	-	1	7	-	8	1-3
ACC	3	-	4				2	-	2	1	-	0	0	-	0	3	-	3	9	-	9	0-6
Big 12	0	-	0	2	-	2				2	-	0	0	-	2	1	-	2	5	-	6	1-4
Big 10	3	-	0	0	-	1	0	-	2				2	-	1	0	-	0	5	-	4	0-2
Pac-10	1	-	1	0	-	0	2	-	0	1	-	2				1	-	0	5	-	3	1-1
SEC	1	-	2	3	-	3	2	-	1	0	-	0	0	-	1				6	-	7	1-3

The one hole in the LSU debate

If you logically examine the top teams from which one could pick a BCS title game participant opposite Ohio St., LSU seems to make the most sense on many levels. They're the champs of what is probably the most difficult conference and they shellacked ACC champ VaTech head-to-head.

Here's the biggest problem I have with this:

If LSU had beaten Arkansas last week and lost to Tennessee yesterday, their record would be more impressive. They would still have two losses, but the losses would have come to better teams. In short, they would be better on paper. And yet, I don't think they would even be mentioned in the list of contenders for the #2 slot if that had happened.

BCS Title Game

Let me say this right now. There is no national champion this year. I don't care who wins what bowl games.

That said, here are the most likely teams, in order, to face Ohio St. in the BCS Title Game:

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Kansas
5. USC
6. Hawaii

Personally, I hope that the computers sneak Kansas into the title game simply b/c it will be so ridiculous that nobody will agree with the decision.

overrated/underrated #5

According to the BCS computers (with AP rank/computer rank in parentheses)

underrated due to a lack of a football tradition
Arizona St. (9/4)
UVa (16/12)
Illinois (20/16)
Cincinnati (21/17)
UConn (25/18)
S. Florida (29/23)

overrated due to a lack of wins over top teams
Oklahoma (3/7)
Texas (12/20)
Hawaii (13/27)
Boise St. (17/26)

Again, the computers seem to disagree most with the humans about the Big East (underrated) and the Big XII (overrated)

upset watch

This weekend is a lousy one for college football fans: no top 15 teams play each other and (depending on the poll) only two games involve two teams from the top 25. ESPN is so unimpressed that the Gameday crew is covering Williams-Amherst. Not all hope is lost though -- there could still be some upsets. I was going to make a list of a few likely upsets, and then I noticed that virtually every top team is playing a team potentially capable of an upset. So I decided to rank them in order of most likely to least likely. I'll put the under/over at seven of these actually happening.

The following is the list grouped into bunches (with the number I predict will actually happen in parentheses -- predictions have a margin of error of +/- 1 game)

likely (2)

Auburn over Georgia (Heck, Georgia should've lost to Vandy)
Arkansas over Tennessee (I don't understand who actually thinks Tennessee is good)
Miami (FL) over UVa (UVa can't keep winning by one point, can they?)

50/50 (2)

Cincy over UConn (I want to believe in UConn, but I already believe in Cincy)
Miss. St. over 'bama ('bama already lost to Florida St. and Miss. St. already beat Auburn)
Wake Forest over Clemson (which would barely qualify as an upset)
Fresno St. over Hawaii (even though they don't have David Carr anymore)

Maybe (2)

Vandy over Kentucky (though Vandy has already had their one upset this year)
Wisconsin over Michigan (Gulp . . . I hope not)
Oklahoma St. over Kansas (Arguably the best team Kansas has faced to date (which isn't saying much))
Texas Tech over Texas (Texas can't keep coming back from 10+ down in the 4th quarter, can they?)
Cal over USC (This assumes, of course, that Cal can actually win a game (other than against Tennessee))
S. Carolina over Florida (Remember when S. Carolina crushed Kentucky and then Kentucky beat LSU?)
Maryland over BC (If they can lose to Florida St., why not Maryland?)

Crazier Things have happened (1)

Illinois over Ohio St. (Illinois is a decent team)
Florida St. over VaTech (they beat BC -- it could happen)
UCLA over Arizona St. (Remember when UCLA beat Cal?)
Louisville over West Virginia (I can't stop thinking that Louisville will play one good game this year)
Texas A&M over Missouri (I don't think this will happen, but you never know)

Even I would be Surprised (0)

Utah St. over Boise St. (although it's not being played on the magical blue field)
Temple over Penn St. (maybe Temple is good at praying)
Baylor over Oklahoma (I think even Appy St. is better than Baylor)
LaTech over LSU (same goes for LaTech)

overrated/underrated #4

According to the BCS computers (with AP rank/computer rank in parentheses)

underrated due to lack of football tradition
Arizona St. (9/5)
UConn (16/11)
UVa (23/14) - their low margins of victory also skew the computer rankings

underrated b/c they haven't received enough credit for their best victories
Penn St. (29/19)
S. Florida (33/25)

overrated b/c they haven't beaten top teams
West Virginia (6/12)
Hawaii (14/unrated) - not among the top 26 teams according to the computers

overrated/underrated #3

According to the BCS computers (with AP rank/computer rank in parentheses)

Overrated due to a lack of wins over top teams
Oklahoma (5/9)
Missouri (9/13)
Hawaii (12/unrated) - 27 teams received a share of the computer vote
Texas (14/unrated) - Neither Hawaii nor Texas were among these 27
USC (13/25)

Underrated b/c they're not traditional football powers
UConn (16/11)
S. Florida (20/12)
UVa (29/18) - computers, however, overrate them since they don't take margin of victory into account

Underrated b/c of a tough schedule
Auburn (19/14)

The computers seem to think that humans overrate the Big 12 and underrate the Big East.

remote eject

It's so disappointing when you eject a dvd or video using the remote. Just when you think you can take care of everything while still lying on the couch you realize you have to get up and go get the movie.

overrated/underrated college football teams #2

(with AP rating/BCS computer ranking in parentheses)

overrated b/c they haven't beaten top teams
Oregon (5/9)
West Virginia (6/10)
Oklahoma (4/14)
USC (9/21)
Hawaii (16/unrated) - 29 teams received a share of the computer "vote" and Hawaii wasn't one of them
Texas (17/unrated) nor was Texas
Cal (18/27)

underrated b/c they're not normally a football power and/or they started off low
S. Florida (11/5) - an undeserving 12th in the coaches'/Harris polls - only LSU has beaten more ranked teams
UVa (21/6)
UConn (29/17)
Wake Forest (28/18)

underrated due to a tough schedule
Auburn (23/16)

underrated b/c, apparently, being undefeated means more to the computers
Arizona St. (7/3)
Kansas (12/7)
I'm not sure how much I can agree with the computers here since neither team has even played (yet alone beaten) a team currently in the Top 25

The fact that point differential is not taken into account by the computers also hurts Oregon (who killed Michigan and barely lost to Cal) and helps UVa (who's won the last three games by a combined 4 points) quite a bit.

overrated/underrated college football teams

With the first BCS poll of the year being released, it becomes easier to see which teams might be overrated or underrated. In the past I've noticed that the computer rankings more accurately reflected a team's prowess than did human rankings. This occurs for various reasons and is, of course, not always true. Given that the season is only about half over it's still difficult to tell how good most teams actually are. The lists that follow are of teams that are ranked notably higher or lower by the computer polls than they are by the human polls. The team's AP and Computer rankings are in parentheses after the school's name and they're under a heading trying to explain the discrepancy.

Overrated b/c they haven't beaten any top teams:
Ohio State (1/5)
Boston College (3/7)
Oklahoma (4/11) -- That Miami win no longer looks so impressive.
Oregon (7/13) -- I think they've gotten credit for almost beating Cal, a team the computers don't particularly like. They could rise if Michigan keeps winning.
USC (13/23) -- That Nebraska win no longer looks so impressive.
Florida (14/17) -- moved down in this week's human polls to narrow the gap
Hawaii (17/25)
Texas (19/unrated) -- 27 teams have at least a percentage of the vote by the computers, Texas is not one of them (meaning the computers view them as no better than the 28th best team).
Texas Tech (22/unrated)

Underrated b/c they started low in the polls:
Kentucky (8/4) -- An inexplicable 13th in the coaches' poll
Virginia (27/14)

Underrated b/c the computers consider 0 losses more impressive than do the humans:
Arizona State (12/5)
Kansas (15/8)

Underrated b/c of a tough schedule:
Auburn (18/12)

Election '08 #1

I've noticed that the only candidates who are consistently forthright and honest are the ones with no chance to win.

I wonder . . . do they tell the truth because they have no chance, or do they have no chance because they tell the truth?

1/4 mark

We're one-fourth of the way through the season and the Pirates have a better record than the Yankees.

bird feeder

I wonder . . . when birds see a bird feeder, do they think "hmm, I wonder how this food got here?" or do they just think "FOOD!"?

lunch

Given my limited resources in the office, I had to be creative. This is what I came up with: the 5-layer PB&J sandwich. That's 6 pieces of bread, 3 layers of jelly, and 2 layers of peanut butter. It was delicious. I'm not sure I convinced anybody else of this, but I'm pretty sure it tasted better than my other idea (making the loaf of bread into one, giant, breadball) would have.

e-LAME eight

What kind of tournament is this? The eight teams left are seeded 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 3. Upsets are the main reason that the tourney is the best sporting event of the year. I'm officially declaring this the worst tournament I've ever witnessed, regardless of the fact that there are three rounds left.