Did Rogue Voters Alter the BCS Title Game?

Despite trailing in the computer polls, Alabama beat out Oklahoma State for the second and final slot in the BCS title game by the narrowest margin ever -- averaging 94.19% of the vote across the Harris Poll, Coaches Poll, and Computer Polls to Oklahoma State's 93.33% of the vote (final tally).

The closeness of the vote has led to a closer examination of the human voters.  Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples today writes about a number of renegade voters who didn't rank Oklahoma State either 2nd or 3rd.  SI.com subtitled the piece "Head-scratching ballots played in (sic) key role in deciding who's No. 2."

Did these voters, in fact, wield enough influence to flip the order?  That's actually an easy question to answer.

If we examine the voter breakdown of the coaches' poll, we find that 42 coaches ranked Alabama 2nd and 17 ranked them third.  Meanwhile, 17 coaches ranked Oklahoma State 2nd, 36 ranked them 3rd, 5 ranked them 4th, and 1 ranked them 5th.

Overall, Alabama received 1399 points and Oklahoma St. received 1367 points.  If the 6 voters who ranked Oklahoma State 4th or 5th instead ranked them third, their total would have increased to 1374, a gain of 7 points.  This would have increased their share of the vote from 92.31% of the vote to 93.15% of the vote, a gain of 0.84.

If we examine the voter breakdown of the Harris Poll, we find that 80 voters ranked Alabama 2nd, 33 ranked them 3rd, and 2 ranked them 4th. 35 voters ranked OK St. 2nd, 64 ranked them 3rd, 9 ranked them 4th, 4 ranked them 5th, and 3 ranked them 6th.

In the original poll, Alabama received 2723 points to Oklahoma State's 2654.  If we again assume that only three teams can receive votes, and switch the votes of the 2 voters who ranked Alabama below 3rd and the 16 voters who ranked Oklahoma State below third, we'd again see slightly different results.  In such a scenario, Alabama would now outscore Oklahoma State 2725 (a gain of 2 points) to 2680 (a gain of 26 points).  This would raise Oklahoma State's share of the vote from 92.31% to 93.22%, almost a full percentage point gain.

Under these assumptions, Alabama's score in the computer polls would remain .930, their coaches' poll score would remain .9485, and their Harris Poll score would rise slightly to .9478.  Their new average would be .9421, only .0002 higher than the actual result.

Oklahoma State would gain more points.  Their score in the computer polls would remain .950, but their coaches' poll score would rise to .9315 and their Harris Poll score would rise to .9322.  Their new average would be .9379, up .0046 points from the actual result.

But .9379 would still trail Alabama's .9421.  The difference would be more than halved (from .0086 to .0042), but Alabama would still be playing in the title game.

Did the "Head-scratching ballots" influence the scores?  Yes.  Oklahoma State received fewer points than they otherwise would have.  Did they change the participants in the title game?  No.  Alabama would still be playing LSU even if no voters had ranked either Alabama or Oklahoma State 4th, 5th, or 6th in either poll.

Super Committee

What are the odds of a "grand bargain" by the so-called "super committee" this fall?  Below is a table of the 12 members and how their lifetime voting records compare to other members of their respective legislative bodies and caucuses.

One could use any number of rankings services or dissect their voting records in various ways and come up with quite different rankings -- as such, this should be interpreted as a first attempt to gain a rough idea of how liberal or conservative the various members are rather than any sort of authoritative study.

That said, the results are somewhat distressing to those hoping for a productive session.  8 of the 12 members are more liberal/conservative than the median member of their caucus and 9 of 12 have voted with their party more than 90% of the time.  Democrat Max Baucus is slightly more conservative than the median Senator and Fred Upton is slightly more liberal than the median Representative, though Rob Portman has also been mentioned as somebody potentially willing to compromise in news reports despite his conservative voting record.

In the Senate it's plain to see that Harry Reid nominated far more moderate members than did Mitch McConnell (by both relative ranks within their party and absolute voting numbers) -- indeed, the most moderate Republican is more conservative than the least moderate Democrat is liberal.  In the House, the story is more muddled.  Relative to their respective caucuses the Republicans are more moderate, but based on their absolute voting records the Democrats could be seen as slightly more moderate.

On average, the Democrats on the committee are more liberal than 49% of their caucus and have voted with their party 89.3% of the time while the Republicans on the committee are more conservative than 63% of their caucus and have voted with their party 95% of the time.  Based on these metrics, the Democrats could be described as more moderate than are the Republicans.

But the political leanings of the average member from each party may be less important than the potential swing votes.  Any chance of the committee's recommendation receiving 7 votes may hinge on Republicans convincing Max Baucus to go along with their plan or Democrats convincing Fred Upton to go along with theirs.  It seems somewhat less likely that the seven most moderate members across party lines would reach an agreement given that only 4 have more moderate voting records than the median member of their party.

It's too early to give up hope entirely, but the voting records of the members of the committee appear to allow little chance of a productive and civil session.  The better idea would have been to allow the four leaders to appoint one or more members from the opposite party to the committee.

	Senate Democrats				Senate Republicans
		Liberal Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile		Conservative Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile
	Max Baucus	52nd	75.49%	2%	Jon Kyl*	16th	96.20%	66%
	Patty Murray*	26th	91.11%	51%	Rob Portman	12th	96.36%	74%
	John Kerry	24th	91.50%	55%	Pat Toomey	2nd	98.15%	96%
	House Democrats				House Republicans
		Liberal Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile		Conservative Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile
	James Clyburn	121st	89.48%	37%	Fred Upton	218th	84.70%	9%
	Chris Van Hollen	60th	93.45%	69%	Dave Camp	150th	97.05%	37%
	Xavier Becerra	41st	94.49%	79%	Jeb Hensarling	13th	97.80%	95%

*co-chairs

liberal/conservative rank: 1st corresponds to most liberal/conservative member of that body, the Senate has 53 Democrats (including two Independents) and 47 Republicans while the House has 240 Republicans and 193 Democrats

% Voting with Party: The percentage of the member's vote that have aligned with the party position during their career.

Party Percentile: The percentage of their respective caucus who the member is more liberal (in the case of Democrats) or conservative (in the case of Republicans) than: a higher number represents a less moderate politician.