According to the BCS computers (with AP rank/computer rank in parentheses)
underrated due to a lack of a football tradition
Arizona St. (9/4)
UVa (16/12)
Illinois (20/16)
Cincinnati (21/17)
UConn (25/18)
S. Florida (29/23)
overrated due to a lack of wins over top teams
Oklahoma (3/7)
Texas (12/20)
Hawaii (13/27)
Boise St. (17/26)
Again, the computers seem to disagree most with the humans about the Big East (underrated) and the Big XII (overrated)
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Thursday, November 08, 2007
upset watch
This weekend is a lousy one for college football fans: no top 15 teams play each other and (depending on the poll) only two games involve two teams from the top 25. ESPN is so unimpressed that the Gameday crew is covering Williams-Amherst. Not all hope is lost though -- there could still be some upsets. I was going to make a list of a few likely upsets, and then I noticed that virtually every top team is playing a team potentially capable of an upset. So I decided to rank them in order of most likely to least likely. I'll put the under/over at seven of these actually happening.
The following is the list grouped into bunches (with the number I predict will actually happen in parentheses -- predictions have a margin of error of +/- 1 game)
likely (2)
Auburn over Georgia (Heck, Georgia should've lost to Vandy)
Arkansas over Tennessee (I don't understand who actually thinks Tennessee is good)
Miami (FL) over UVa (UVa can't keep winning by one point, can they?)
50/50 (2)
Cincy over UConn (I want to believe in UConn, but I already believe in Cincy)
Miss. St. over 'bama ('bama already lost to Florida St. and Miss. St. already beat Auburn)
Wake Forest over Clemson (which would barely qualify as an upset)
Fresno St. over Hawaii (even though they don't have David Carr anymore)
Maybe (2)
Vandy over Kentucky (though Vandy has already had their one upset this year)
Wisconsin over Michigan (Gulp . . . I hope not)
Oklahoma St. over Kansas (Arguably the best team Kansas has faced to date (which isn't saying much))
Texas Tech over Texas (Texas can't keep coming back from 10+ down in the 4th quarter, can they?)
Cal over USC (This assumes, of course, that Cal can actually win a game (other than against Tennessee))
S. Carolina over Florida (Remember when S. Carolina crushed Kentucky and then Kentucky beat LSU?)
Maryland over BC (If they can lose to Florida St., why not Maryland?)
Crazier Things have happened (1)
Illinois over Ohio St. (Illinois is a decent team)
Florida St. over VaTech (they beat BC -- it could happen)
UCLA over Arizona St. (Remember when UCLA beat Cal?)
Louisville over West Virginia (I can't stop thinking that Louisville will play one good game this year)
Texas A&M over Missouri (I don't think this will happen, but you never know)
Even I would be Surprised (0)
Utah St. over Boise St. (although it's not being played on the magical blue field)
Temple over Penn St. (maybe Temple is good at praying)
Baylor over Oklahoma (I think even Appy St. is better than Baylor)
LaTech over LSU (same goes for LaTech)
The following is the list grouped into bunches (with the number I predict will actually happen in parentheses -- predictions have a margin of error of +/- 1 game)
likely (2)
Auburn over Georgia (Heck, Georgia should've lost to Vandy)
Arkansas over Tennessee (I don't understand who actually thinks Tennessee is good)
Miami (FL) over UVa (UVa can't keep winning by one point, can they?)
50/50 (2)
Cincy over UConn (I want to believe in UConn, but I already believe in Cincy)
Miss. St. over 'bama ('bama already lost to Florida St. and Miss. St. already beat Auburn)
Wake Forest over Clemson (which would barely qualify as an upset)
Fresno St. over Hawaii (even though they don't have David Carr anymore)
Maybe (2)
Vandy over Kentucky (though Vandy has already had their one upset this year)
Wisconsin over Michigan (Gulp . . . I hope not)
Oklahoma St. over Kansas (Arguably the best team Kansas has faced to date (which isn't saying much))
Texas Tech over Texas (Texas can't keep coming back from 10+ down in the 4th quarter, can they?)
Cal over USC (This assumes, of course, that Cal can actually win a game (other than against Tennessee))
S. Carolina over Florida (Remember when S. Carolina crushed Kentucky and then Kentucky beat LSU?)
Maryland over BC (If they can lose to Florida St., why not Maryland?)
Crazier Things have happened (1)
Illinois over Ohio St. (Illinois is a decent team)
Florida St. over VaTech (they beat BC -- it could happen)
UCLA over Arizona St. (Remember when UCLA beat Cal?)
Louisville over West Virginia (I can't stop thinking that Louisville will play one good game this year)
Texas A&M over Missouri (I don't think this will happen, but you never know)
Even I would be Surprised (0)
Utah St. over Boise St. (although it's not being played on the magical blue field)
Temple over Penn St. (maybe Temple is good at praying)
Baylor over Oklahoma (I think even Appy St. is better than Baylor)
LaTech over LSU (same goes for LaTech)
Sunday, November 04, 2007
overrated/underrated #4
According to the BCS computers (with AP rank/computer rank in parentheses)
underrated due to lack of football tradition
Arizona St. (9/5)
UConn (16/11)
UVa (23/14) - their low margins of victory also skew the computer rankings
underrated b/c they haven't received enough credit for their best victories
Penn St. (29/19)
S. Florida (33/25)
overrated b/c they haven't beaten top teams
West Virginia (6/12)
Hawaii (14/unrated) - not among the top 26 teams according to the computers
underrated due to lack of football tradition
Arizona St. (9/5)
UConn (16/11)
UVa (23/14) - their low margins of victory also skew the computer rankings
underrated b/c they haven't received enough credit for their best victories
Penn St. (29/19)
S. Florida (33/25)
overrated b/c they haven't beaten top teams
West Virginia (6/12)
Hawaii (14/unrated) - not among the top 26 teams according to the computers
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