Top 25 Update

Starting this week, I'll be posting my own top 25 in addition to predicting what the AP voters will think.
(teams that lost crossed out, teams with big wins in green, and team with bad wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses -- I was within one spot on 23/32 and only missed by more than two on Auburn

Previous			Projected			My Rankings
1.	Florida		1.	Florida (1)		1.	Florida
2.	Texas		2.	Alabama (2)		2.	Alabama
3.	Alabama		3.	Texas (3)		3.	Texas
4.	LSU		4.	VaTech (4)		4.	VaTech
5.	VaTech		5.	USC (6)		5.	USC
6.	Boise St.		6.	Boise St. (5)		6.	Cincy
7.	USC		7.	Cincy (8)		7.	Ohio St.
8.	Cincy		8.	LSU (10)		8.	TCU
9.	Ohio St.		9.	Ohio St. (7)		9.	Iowa
10.	TCU		10.	TCU (12)		10.	Nebraska
11.	Miami		11.	Miami (9)		11.	Penn St.
12.	Iowa		12.	Iowa (11)		12.	Miami
13.	Oregon		13.	Oregon (13)		13.	LSU
14.	Penn St.		14.	Penn St. (14)		14.	Boise St.
15.	OK St.		15.	Nebraska (15)		15.	Houston
16.	Kansas		16.	OK St. (16)		16.	BYU
17.	Auburn		17.	Kansas (17)		17.	Oklahoma
18.	BYU		18.	BYU (18)		18.	GA Tech
18.	Oklahoma		19.	Oklahoma (19)		19.	Oregon
20.	Ole Miss		20.	GA Tech (20)		20.	S. Florida
21.	Nebraska		21.	S. Florida (21)		21.	S. Carolina
22.	GA Tech		22.	S. Carolina (22)		22.	OK St.
23.	S. Florida		23.	Houston (23)		23.	Kansas
24.	Missouri		24.	Auburn (27)		24.	Auburn
25.	S. Carolina		25.	Utah (24)		25.	West Virginia
26.	Wisconsin		26.	W. Virginia (28)		26.	Notre Dame
27.	Houston		27.	N. Dame (25)		27.	Utah
28.	Georgia		28.	Pitt (26)		28.	Pitt
29.	Stanford		29.	Wisconsin (30)		29.	Wisconsin
30.	Utah		30.	Missouri (31)		30.	Ole Miss
31.	Michigan		31.	Ole Miss (29)
32.	Boston Coll.		32.	Arkansas (32)
33.	Notre Dame

games between top 25 teams next week:

Oklahoma at Texas
S. Carolina at Alabama
VaTech at GA Tech
Cincinnati at S. Florida

other losable games for top 25 teams:

Arkansas at Florida
Boise St. at Tulsa
USC at Notre Dame
Iowa at Wisconsin
Missouri at OK State
Kansas at Colorado
Texas Tech at Nebraska
Utah at Air Force

update: other random thoughts
-I was impressed with how well I did on 23-32 given the number of teams that lost at the bottom of the rankings this week

-The 13-3 loss to Florida is now LSU's most impressive game -- which isn't saying much for a top ten team

-I thought Iowa might jump up in the rankings, but I suppose winning by two points at home against an inconsistent Michigan team that turned the ball over 5 teams isn't really all that impressive.  But if they win next week at Wisconsin, they deserve to be ahead of at least LSU and Miami

-I'm starting to wonder if VaTech and Miami are that good, or if the ACC is that bad

-It's pretty clear that the Big East has fewer elite teams than any other BCS conference, but I think they also have fewer bad teams.  Is any team other than Syracuse even below average?

Top 25 Update

Top 25
Teams that lost crossed out, teams with bad wins in red, and teams with big wins in green
update: actual rankings in parentheses (I was within one on 23/33 and within two on 30/33)

Previous			Projected
1.	Florida		1.	Florida (1)
2.	Texas		2.	Texas (2)
3.	Alabama		3.	Alabama (3)
4.	LSU		4.	LSU (4)
5.	Boise St.		5.	Boise St. (6)
6.	VaTech		6.	VaTech (5)
7.	USC		7.	USC (7)
8.	Oklahoma		8.	Ohio St. (9)
9.	Ohio St.		9.	Cincy (8)
10.	Cincy		10.	TCU (10)
11.	TCU		11.	Miami (11)
12.	Houston		12.	Iowa (12)
13.	Iowa		13.	OK St. (15)
14.	OK State		14.	Penn St. (14)
15.	Penn State		15.	Oregon (13)
16.	Oregon		16.	Kansas (16)
17.	Miami (Fl)		17.	BYU (18)
18.	Kansas		18.	Ole Miss (19)
18.	Georgia		19.	Nebraska (21)
20.	BYU		20.	Oklahoma (20)
21.	Ole Miss		21.	GA Tech (22)
22.	Michigan		22.	Auburn (17)
23.	Nebraska		23.	Missouri (24)
24.	Cal		24.	S. Carolina (25)
25.	GA Tech		25.	S. Florida (23)
26.	Missouri		26.	Georgia (28)
27.	Auburn		27.	Houston (27)
28.	S. Carolina		28.	Utah (30)
29.	S. Florida		29.	Wisconsin (26)
30.	UCLA		30.	N. Dame (33)
31.	Utah		31.	Stanford (29)
32.	Wisconsin		32.	Michigan (31)
33.	Notre Dame		33.	Bos. Coll. (32)

games between top 25 teams next week:

Florida at LSU
'bama at Ole Miss
Nebraska at Missouri

other potentially losable games for top 25 teams

BC at VaTech
Baylor at Oklahoma
Michigan at Iowa
Oregon at UCLA
GaTech at Florida St.

other random thoughts

-LSU once again squeaked by in a game they should've lost.  I'd say they don't deserve to be the #4 team in the country, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good -- now the big question: will they luck out and face a Tebow-less Florida next week (yes, if Urban Meyer has a heart)


-Will Oregon's victory over Cal mean any less to the voters now that Cal's been exposed?  My guess is that it won't.  Update: Looks like I was right -- Oregon inexplicably jumped over Penn St. and Oklahoma St. this week.

-Teams of which I'm skeptical: LSU, Boise St., Oregon, Kansas, BYU, Missouri

-Teams I expect to rise: USC, Oklahoma, Notre Dame

-Update: I'm not really surprised that Auburn shot up in the rankings (I did have them jumping three teams), but I don't understand why a win against 2-3 Tennessee is so meaningful.

Top 25 Update

Previous			Projected
1.	Florida		1.	Florida (1)
2.	Texas		2.	Texas (2)
3.	USC		3.	Alabama (3)
4.	Alabama		4.	Ole Miss (4)
5.	Ole Miss		5.	Penn State (5)
5.	Penn State		6.	Cal (6)
7.	BYU		7.	LSU (7)
8.	Cal		8.	USC (12)
9.	LSU		9.	Miami (9)
10.	Boise St.		10.	Boise St. (8)
11.	Ohio St.		11.	Ohio St. (13)
12.	Oklahoma		12.	Oklahoma (10)
13.	VaTech		13.	VaTech (11)
14.	GA Tech		14.	TCU (15)
15.	TCU		15.	OK State (16)
16.	OK State		16.	Cincy (14)
17.	Cincy		17.	Houston (17)
18.	Utah		18.	Kansas (20)
19.	Nebraska		19.	Georgia (21)
20.	Miami (Fl)		20.	Wash. (24)
21.	Houston		21.	BYU (19)
22.	Kansas		22.	UNC (22)
23.	Georgia		23.	Michigan (23)
24.	N. Carolina		24.	Missouri (26)
25.	Michigan		25.	Nebraska (25)
26.	Missouri		26.	GA Tech (26)
27.	Pitt		27.	Pitt (29)
28.	Oregon St.		28.	Florida St. (18)
29.	Tex Tech		29.	Tex Tech (33)
30.	UCLA		30.	UCLA (30)
31.	Notre Dame		31.	Auburn (27)
32.	West Virginia		32.	N. Dame (34)
33.	Auburn		33.	Iowa (31)
34.	Iowa		34.	Clemson (36)
35.	Boston Coll.		35.	Oregon (32)
36.	Baylor		36.	Utah (35)
			37.	Ore. St. (38)

update: actual rankings in parentheses, I was within two on 31 of 37 teams (I'm not impressed)
Seems like Texas Tech and Pitt were moved down when they didn't deserve to be, and I'm skeptical that the same Florida St. team that trailed Jacksonville St. 9-7 late in the 4th quarter last week really deserves to be #18.   And I wonder how high Boise St. can possibly move up without a top 30 team on its schedule.



Games Between Top 25 Teams Next Week
Miami at VaTech

Other Potentially Losable Games for Ranked Teams
Arkansas at Alabama
Ole Miss at South Carolina
Iowa at Penn State
Colorado St. at BYU
Cal at Oregon
UNC at GA Tech
TCU at Clemson
Fresno St. at Cincinnati
Texas Tech at Houston
Boise St. at Bowling Green
Fresno St. at Cincy
LSU at Mississippi St.
S. Florida at Florida St.

Random Thoughts:
-My prediction that TCU will emerge as the best non-BCS team is looking pretty good
-I have no idea how far Washington and Florida St. are going to rise after their wins
-I'm also unsure how far BYU and Utah will fall and Oregon will rise

Top 25 Update

Top 25 heading into the weekend and tomorrow's projected Top 25
(teams that lost crossed out, teams with impressive victories in green, teams with less than impressive victories in red)  update: actual rankings in parentheses, I was within one place on 27 of 36 teams

Previous			Projected
1.	Florida		1.	Florida (1)
2.	Texas		2.	Texas (2)
3.	USC		3.	USC (3)
4.	Alabama		4.	Alabama (4)
5.	OK State		5.	Ole Miss (5)
6.	Ole Miss		6.	Penn State (5)
7.	Penn State		7.	BYU (7)
8.	Ohio St.		8.	Cal (8)
9.	BYU		9.	LSU (9)
10.	Cal		10.	Boise St. (10)
11.	LSU		11.	Oklahoma (12)
12.	Boise St.		12.	Ohio St. (11)
13.	Oklahoma		13.	VaTech (13)
14.	VaTech		14.	GA Tech (14)
15.	GA Tech		15.	TCU (15)
16.	TCU		16.	OK State (16)
17.	Utah		17.	Utah (18)
18.	Notre Dame		18.	Miami (20)
19.	N. Carolina		19.	Georgia (23)
20.	Miami (Fl)		20.	Nebraska (19)
21.	Georgia		21.	Cincy (17)
22.	Nebraska		22.	UNC (24)
23.	Cincy		23.	Kansas (22)
24.	Kansas		24.	Michigan (25)
25.	Missouri		25.	Pitt (27)
26.	Oregon St.		26.	Missouri (26)
27.	Michigan St.		27.	Houston (21)
28.	Pitt		28.	Tex Tech (29)
29.	Tex Tech		29.	UCLA (30)
30.	Oregon		30.	Oregon (38)
31.	Clemson		31.	WVU (32)
32.	Florida St.		32.	ND (31)
33.	West Virginia		33.	Ore St. (28)
34.	Tennessee		34.	Iowa (34)
35.	Iowa		35.	Auburn (33)
36.	Michigan		36.	FSU (42)
37.	UCLA

Games matching up top 25 teams next week:
Nebraska at VaTech
GA Tech at Miami

Losable games for top 25 teams:
Tennessee at Florida
Texas Tech at Texas
USC at Washington
Ohio State at Toledo
Florida St. at BYU
Cal at Minnesota
Boise St. at Fresno St.
Utah at Oregon
East Carolina at UNC
Georgia at Arkansas
Cincy at Oregon St.
Navy at Pitt

Other Thoughts
-Houston could be ranked anywhere between about 20th and 30th, I have no idea what voters will do with them.

-By the end of the year I think TCU will emerge as the best non-BCS team.

-I don't like the rule that gave UNC a safety due to a holding penalty in the endzone by UConn.  The QB probably wouldn't have been sacked if the lineman hadn't held -- it was certainly no more likely to result in a safety than pass interference in the endzone is to result in a TD.

-updated: I'm really surprised that Oregon St. only fell two spots after needing a last-second FG to beat UNLV.  UNC and Georgia dropped more than I thought they would, but that seems fair after both were lucky to escape with wins against unranked teams.

Top 25 Update

AP Top 25 before this weekend (teams who lost crossed out, teams with impressive victories in green, less than impressive in red):
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. USC
5. Alabama
6. Ohio State
7. VaTech
8. Ole Miss
9. OK State
10. Penn State
11. LSU
12. Cal
13. Georgia
14. Boise State
15. GA Tech
16. Oregon
17. TCU
18. Florida St.
19. Utah
20. BYU
21. UNC
22. Iowa
23. Notre Dame
24. Nebraska
25. Kansas
26. Oregon State
27. Illinois
28. Pitt
29. Mich St.
30. Rutgers
31. Texas Tech
32. WVU
33. Cincy
34. Clemson
35. Miami (Fla)


Projected Top 25 due out tomorrow:
update: actual rankings in parentheses, I was within one spot for 23 of 32 teams.  Miami was the only team I missed really badly on, I guess I wasn't as impressed by that victory as were others.  I was most impressed by nailing the rankings of Cal, LSU, Oklahoma, and VaTech since I wasn't sure how far they'd climb/drop

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. USC (3)
4. Alabama (4)
5. Ole Miss (6)
6. OK State (5)
7. BYU (9)
8. Penn State (7)
9. Boise State (12)
10. Cal (10)
11. LSU (11)
12. Ohio St. (8)
13. Oklahoma (13)
14. VaTech (14)
15. GA Tech (15)
16. TCU (16)
17. Utah (17)
18. Georgia (21)
19. UNC (19)
20. Notre Dame (18)
21. Nebraska (22)
22. Cincy (23)
23. Kansas (24)
24. Oregon St. (26)
25. Pitt (28)
26. Missouri (25)
27. Mich. St. (27)
28. Miami (20)
29. Iowa (35)
30. Oregon (30)
31. FSU (32)
32. Clemson (31)

Games between ranked teams next week:
USC at Ohio St.

Other potentially interesting games involving Top 25 teams:
Syracuse at Penn State
Vandy at LSU
S. Carolina at Georgia
Clemson at GA Tech
TCU at UVa
UNC at UConn
Notre Dame at Michigan
Pitt at Buffalo

Is Early Voting McCain's Death Knell?

Think that McCain has no chance of winning? You might be right. In addition to Obama's leads in a number of formerly red states, he's doing quite well among early voters. The Associated Press released a polls today from most of the key states. They might not be accurate, but if they are then McCain has a huge problem. Not only is Obama ahead in all of the states -- and by pretty large margins in some of them -- but significant numbers of people have voted early in most of them and most of the early voters are going for Obama.

Underrated/Overrated (2008)

With the first BCS poll out yesterday, here are the teams that the computers think are underrated or overrated (with AP rank/computer rank in parentheses)

Overrated
Penn St. (3/7)
best win so far is against Oregon St. -- this will change if they beat OSU on Saturday

USC (6/10)
Somewhat puzzling given that the computers rank OSU #5, but they did lose to the OSU of the west

Florida (5/12)
Lost to Ole Miss + computer doesn't give much credence to LSU victory (or factor in margin of victory)

Texas Tech (8/11)
Downy-soft schedule

LSU (11/19)
No quality wins -- and, no, Auburn doesn't count

S. Florida (14/23)
Beat Kansas, but the computers don't respect Kansas

Kansas (19/unranked)
Quick, name a team they've beaten + a close loss to Okla doesn't matter to the computers


Underrated

Ohio St. (10/5)
After getting routed in the last two title games, nobody wants to see them in another

Oklahoma St. (7/3)
Started off really low

Georgia Tech (21/16)
ditto, plus the computers don't factor in a 3 point win over Gardner-Webb

Utah (12/8)
Boise St. (13/9)
The computers don't differentiate between BCS and non-BCS

Lakefood and Riverfood

What is seafood called when it's not from the sea?

Battleground States

Both candidates are trying to make a case that they're the more electable candidate based on which states they've won. I'm not convinced that this means anything anyway, but what they're forgetting is that at least 30 states won't be in play no matter who's the nominee. Here's a list, courtesy of wikipedia, of the states that were close in 2004. I've added in who (if anybody) has won this year.

States where margin of victory <5%

1. Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38% -- Obama (+17)
   
2. Iowa, Bush, 0.67% -- Obama (+9)
   
3. New Mexico, Bush, 0.79% -- Clinton (+1)
   
4. New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37% -- Clinton (+2)
   
5. Ohio, Bush, 2.11% -- Clinton (+10)
   
6. Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50% -- undecided
   
7. Nevada, Bush, 2.59% -- Clinton (+6)
   
8. Michigan, Kerry, 3.42% -- undecided
   
9. Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48% -- Obama (+34)
   
10. Oregon, Kerry, 4.16% -- undecided
    
11. Colorado, Bush, 4.67% -- Obama (+35)
    

States where margin of victory 5%<10%>

1. Florida, Bush, 5.01% -- undecided
   
2. New Jersey, Kerry, 6.68% -- Clinton (+10)
   
3. Washington, Kerry, 7.18% -- Obama (+5/37)
   
4. Missouri, Bush, 7.20% -- Obama (+1)
   
5. Delaware, Kerry, 7.60% -- Obama (+10)
   
6. Virginia, Bush, 8.20% -- Obama (+29)
   
7. Hawaii, Kerry, 8.75% -- Obama (+52)
   
8. Maine, Kerry, 8.99% -- Obama (+19)
   
9. Arkansas, Bush, 9.76% -- Clinton (+44)
   
10. California, Kerry, 9.95% -- Clinton (+9)
    

Final Tally: 4 to 4 in states decided by <5%, href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html">http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Election Odds #6

After the Potomac Primaries
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 70% (+10)
Clinton 30% (-10)

Obama takes eight straight and the momentum. The large, decisive, states loom in the distance.

Republicans
McCain 99% (+9)
Huckabee 1% (-6)

Huckabee says he majored in miracles, not math, in college -- he needs one to win.

Overall
Obama 45% (+5)
McCain 43% (+2)
Clinton 10% (-4)
Huckabee 1% (-2)
Bloomberg 1% (--)

It looks like both parties will nominate their most electable candidate

By Party
Democratic 54% (-1)
Republican 45% (+1)
Independent 1% (--)

Now that McCain is all but the nominee, Republicans have nothing to do but hope Hillary wins