The closeness of the vote has led to a closer examination of the human voters. Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples today writes about a number of renegade voters who didn't rank Oklahoma State either 2nd or 3rd. SI.com subtitled the piece "Head-scratching ballots played in (sic) key role in deciding who's No. 2."
Did these voters, in fact, wield enough influence to flip the order? That's actually an easy question to answer.
If we examine the voter breakdown of the coaches' poll, we find that 42 coaches ranked Alabama 2nd and 17 ranked them third. Meanwhile, 17 coaches ranked Oklahoma State 2nd, 36 ranked them 3rd, 5 ranked them 4th, and 1 ranked them 5th.
Overall, Alabama received 1399 points and Oklahoma St. received 1367 points. If the 6 voters who ranked Oklahoma State 4th or 5th instead ranked them third, their total would have increased to 1374, a gain of 7 points. This would have increased their share of the vote from 92.31% of the vote to 93.15% of the vote, a gain of 0.84.
If we examine the voter breakdown of the Harris Poll, we find that 80 voters ranked Alabama 2nd, 33 ranked them 3rd, and 2 ranked them 4th. 35 voters ranked OK St. 2nd, 64 ranked them 3rd, 9 ranked them 4th, 4 ranked them 5th, and 3 ranked them 6th.
In the original poll, Alabama received 2723 points to Oklahoma State's 2654. If we again assume that only three teams can receive votes, and switch the votes of the 2 voters who ranked Alabama below 3rd and the 16 voters who ranked Oklahoma State below third, we'd again see slightly different results. In such a scenario, Alabama would now outscore Oklahoma State 2725 (a gain of 2 points) to 2680 (a gain of 26 points). This would raise Oklahoma State's share of the vote from 92.31% to 93.22%, almost a full percentage point gain.
Under these assumptions, Alabama's score in the computer polls would remain .930, their coaches' poll score would remain .9485, and their Harris Poll score would rise slightly to .9478. Their new average would be .9421, only .0002 higher than the actual result.
Oklahoma State would gain more points. Their score in the computer polls would remain .950, but their coaches' poll score would rise to .9315 and their Harris Poll score would rise to .9322. Their new average would be .9379, up .0046 points from the actual result.
But .9379 would still trail Alabama's .9421. The difference would be more than halved (from .0086 to .0042), but Alabama would still be playing in the title game.
Did the "Head-scratching ballots" influence the scores? Yes. Oklahoma State received fewer points than they otherwise would have. Did they change the participants in the title game? No. Alabama would still be playing LSU even if no voters had ranked either Alabama or Oklahoma State 4th, 5th, or 6th in either poll.
In the original poll, Alabama received 2723 points to Oklahoma State's 2654. If we again assume that only three teams can receive votes, and switch the votes of the 2 voters who ranked Alabama below 3rd and the 16 voters who ranked Oklahoma State below third, we'd again see slightly different results. In such a scenario, Alabama would now outscore Oklahoma State 2725 (a gain of 2 points) to 2680 (a gain of 26 points). This would raise Oklahoma State's share of the vote from 92.31% to 93.22%, almost a full percentage point gain.
Under these assumptions, Alabama's score in the computer polls would remain .930, their coaches' poll score would remain .9485, and their Harris Poll score would rise slightly to .9478. Their new average would be .9421, only .0002 higher than the actual result.
Oklahoma State would gain more points. Their score in the computer polls would remain .950, but their coaches' poll score would rise to .9315 and their Harris Poll score would rise to .9322. Their new average would be .9379, up .0046 points from the actual result.
But .9379 would still trail Alabama's .9421. The difference would be more than halved (from .0086 to .0042), but Alabama would still be playing in the title game.
Did the "Head-scratching ballots" influence the scores? Yes. Oklahoma State received fewer points than they otherwise would have. Did they change the participants in the title game? No. Alabama would still be playing LSU even if no voters had ranked either Alabama or Oklahoma State 4th, 5th, or 6th in either poll.
