Occasional musings too long to fit in my facebook status updates

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Election Odds #6

After the Potomac Primaries
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):


Democrats
Obama 70% (+10)
Clinton 30% (-10)

Obama takes eight straight and the momentum. The large, decisive, states loom in the distance.

Republicans
McCain 99% (+9)
Huckabee 1% (-6)

Huckabee says he majored in miracles, not math, in college -- he needs one to win.

Overall
Obama 45% (+5)
McCain 43% (+2)
Clinton 10% (-4)
Huckabee 1% (-2)
Bloomberg 1% (--)

It looks like both parties will nominate their most electable candidate

By Party
Democratic 54% (-1)
Republican 45% (+1)
Independent 1% (--)

Now that McCain is all but the nominee, Republicans have nothing to do but hope Hillary wins

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Election Odds #5

After Super Tuesday
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):


Democrats
Obama 60% (--)
Clinton 40% (--)

Obama makes a comeback to virtually tie Hillary on Super Tuesday. Now what?

Republicans
McCain 90% (+15)
Huckabee 7% (+6)
Romney 3% (-21)

McCain is still the man to beat, but Huckabee looks like the only one capable of doing so (but maybe only if Romney drops out).

Overall
McCain 41% (+1)
Obama 40% (--)
Clinton 14% (-1)
Romney 1% (-7)
Huckabee 3% (+2)
Bloomberg 1% (--)

Obama and McCain, the most electable Democrat and Republican, still look like the two most likely heirs to the throne

By Party
Democratic 54% (-1)
Republican 45% (+1)
Independent 1% (--)

The continued rise of McCain makes it more likely that a Republican will be in office next January

About Me

Buffalo, New York, United States