Corey's Random Thoughts

College Football Conference Rankings

2012-01-03T20:45:00.000-06:00

With bowl season swinging into high gear, many will be rooting for their favorite conference to prevail. If you grew up in Alabama, you're almost certainly rooting for the SEC. And if you grew up in Ohio, you're almost certainly rooting for the Big Ten. And nothing's going to change your mind.

But what if you've moved around a lot? Or didn't grow up as a college football fan? Or attended school out-of-state? Or attended multiple schools? For which conference should you root, then?

What follows is a first attempt to rank the conferences by criteria that might be important to fans trying to pick the most virtuous conference. For the first year of these rankings, I've divided these criteria into three separate categories: academics, football academics, and football ethics.

Before I discuss the results, I need to stress that these rankings are crude and preliminary. This is but my first attempt to quantify the merits of each conference. Due to this fact, I entertained not posting them at all (hence why it's being posted this late into bowl season) . . . but since I already had the tabulations done, I figured I'd post them and note that a lot more could be done to make these better.

Results

The ACC and the Big Ten are the standouts in the academic category, ranking 1-2 in almost category. The Big Ten is the only conference with 100% AAU membership, but the ACC edges them out for the highest average SAT scores (25th-75th percentile of 1194-1384), highest average ranking in the US News & World Report (49th), and highest graduation rate (83%). The Pac 12 was a clear third, and the SEC, Big 12, and Big East were clustered at the bottom. Only 16.7% of SEC schools are AAU members, but the Big East has slightly lower SAT scores (1070-1265), USNWR rank (112th), and graduation rate (67%).

For football academics, I looked at the NCAA APR rating and the graduation rate of the football teams. The ACC ranked first in both -- 63% of football players graduate. The Pac-10 ranked at the bottom of the category, but the Big 12 has the lowest APR and the SEC has the lowest football graduation rate -- 51% of football players graduate.

For football ethics, I looked at oversigning and years spent on probation. The SEC was the biggest offender in recruiting, signing an average of 25.25 recruits per year despite scholarship limits of 85 per team (meaning a large number of recruits have to be encouraged or forced to leave school prematurely or enroll elsewhere). The Pac-10, however, had the most years spent on probation since 2000 -- an average of 1.83 per team -- in part due to the recent troubles of new conference members Utah and Colorado. The ACC and Big Ten signed the fewest athletes per year (22.16 and 22.28), while the Big East had zero teams on probation since 2000.

The averages in all the categories I described were standardized so that the school with the highest score had 100 points. Overall, the ACC ranked first, with 96.41 points out of 100 and the SEC ranked last, with 80.62 points. This was partially due to the fact that students at ACC schools score about 100 points higher on the SAT than students at SEC schools, and are almost 25% more likely to graduate, but the SEC ranked near the bottom in almost every category. Without further ado, here are this year's rankings:

	Acad	Ft. Acad	Ft. Ethics	Total
ACC	91.67	100.00	97.57	96.41
Big Ten	93.75	95.49	95.92	95.05
Pac 10	79.75	85.62	90.13	85.17
Big East	66.80	88.86	95.94	83.87
Big 12	70.44	82.93	90.63	81.33
SEC	65.23	89.00	87.64	80.62

The full results and tabulations can be found here, and here are details the measures that were used to construct the rankings. Each of these measures is problematic in multiple ways, but I'll spare you the full discussion (but please note again that these ratings are essentially an imperfect first draft):

AAU Membership
The American Association of Universities is a group of 59 of the most prestigious research universities in the country. I measured the percentage of schools in each conference that were AAU members.

UWNWR Ranks + Grad Rates + SAT scores
A number of the schools reported ACT scores, which were converted to SAT scores using the concordence tables published by both the ACT and SAT folks (which were identical). I used the average SAT or converted score for each conference in addition to the average rank and SAT score.

Oversigning
I used the 10 year average of scholarships awarded per year. Some of these numbers are inflated due to early departures to the NFL and some are deflated due to scholarship restrictions. But since they're a 10 year average and NFL players still have to remain in school for 3 years, the numbers should be pretty strongly correlated with the number of scholarships being awarded to players who are later removed from the team in one of a number of ways (as detailed by SI).

Academic Progress Rate
This is the NCAA's measure of academic progress -- essentially a way for them to assess whether students on the teams are progressing toward graduation. I used the latest APR for each school's football program.

Football Graduation Rate
The percentage of football players who graduate within six years.

Years on Probation
I calculated the total number of years spent on probation per team for each conference between 2000 and 2011.

Other possible criteria for future rankings:

Washington Monthly College Rankings
These rankings attempt to rank schools by their service to society rather than their academic prestige. I entertained the idea of using these rankings and/or pieces of these rankings, but decided against it largely because they were just released and I didn't want to take the time to enter all the data (see what I mean about these rankings being crude and preliminary?)

Sexist Team Names
In a recent study, schools with women's basketball teams who went by different, sexist, nicknames than the men's teams were found to be less likely to hire a female to coach the women's basketball team and gave relatively fewer athletic opportunities for women (as measured by Title IX proportionality).

Arrests
I originally planned on using this data on number of arrests per team, but it only includes last year's to 25 teams . . . and, as this update pointed out, the two programs with the most arrests have had only two arrests between them in the last 6 months -- one of whom wasn't even a practicing member of the team. If data were available on number of arrests by team, I would certainly use that.

Transfer Policies
This would be hard to measure, but I'd rather not root for teams that prevent their players from transferring closer to home to be near seriously ill parents

If I decide to do another set of rankings in the future, I'm open to any other suggestions as well . . .

Did Rogue Voters Alter the BCS Title Game?

2011-12-05T16:00:00.001-06:00

Despite trailing in the computer polls, Alabama beat out Oklahoma State for the second and final slot in the BCS title game by the narrowest margin ever -- averaging 94.19% of the vote across the Harris Poll, Coaches Poll, and Computer Polls to Oklahoma State's 93.33% of the vote (final tally).

The closeness of the vote has led to a closer examination of the human voters. Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples today writes about a number of renegade voters who didn't rank Oklahoma State either 2nd or 3rd. SI.com subtitled the piece "Head-scratching ballots played in (sic) key role in deciding who's No. 2."

Did these voters, in fact, wield enough influence to flip the order? That's actually an easy question to answer.

If we examine the voter breakdown of the coaches' poll, we find that 42 coaches ranked Alabama 2nd and 17 ranked them third. Meanwhile, 17 coaches ranked Oklahoma State 2nd, 36 ranked them 3rd, 5 ranked them 4th, and 1 ranked them 5th.

Overall, Alabama received 1399 points and Oklahoma St. received 1367 points. If the 6 voters who ranked Oklahoma State 4th or 5th instead ranked them third, their total would have increased to 1374, a gain of 7 points. This would have increased their share of the vote from 92.31% of the vote to 93.15% of the vote, a gain of 0.84.

If we examine the voter breakdown of the Harris Poll, we find that 80 voters ranked Alabama 2nd, 33 ranked them 3rd, and 2 ranked them 4th. 35 voters ranked OK St. 2nd, 64 ranked them 3rd, 9 ranked them 4th, 4 ranked them 5th, and 3 ranked them 6th.

In the original poll, Alabama received 2723 points to Oklahoma State's 2654. If we again assume that only three teams can receive votes, and switch the votes of the 2 voters who ranked Alabama below 3rd and the 16 voters who ranked Oklahoma State below third, we'd again see slightly different results. In such a scenario, Alabama would now outscore Oklahoma State 2725 (a gain of 2 points) to 2680 (a gain of 26 points). This would raise Oklahoma State's share of the vote from 92.31% to 93.22%, almost a full percentage point gain.

Under these assumptions, Alabama's score in the computer polls would remain .930, their coaches' poll score would remain .9485, and their Harris Poll score would rise slightly to .9478. Their new average would be .9421, only .0002 higher than the actual result.

Oklahoma State would gain more points. Their score in the computer polls would remain .950, but their coaches' poll score would rise to .9315 and their Harris Poll score would rise to .9322. Their new average would be .9379, up .0046 points from the actual result.

But .9379 would still trail Alabama's .9421. The difference would be more than halved (from .0086 to .0042), but Alabama would still be playing in the title game.

Did the "Head-scratching ballots" influence the scores? Yes. Oklahoma State received fewer points than they otherwise would have. Did they change the participants in the title game? No. Alabama would still be playing LSU even if no voters had ranked either Alabama or Oklahoma State 4th, 5th, or 6th in either poll.

Super Committee

2011-08-11T16:29:00.000-05:00

What are the odds of a "grand bargain" by the so-called "super committee" this fall? Below is a table of the 12 members and how their lifetime voting records compare to other members of their respective legislative bodies and caucuses.

One could use any number of rankings services or dissect their voting records in various ways and come up with quite different rankings -- as such, this should be interpreted as a first attempt to gain a rough idea of how liberal or conservative the various members are rather than any sort of authoritative study.

That said, the results are somewhat distressing to those hoping for a productive session. 8 of the 12 members are more liberal/conservative than the median member of their caucus and 9 of 12 have voted with their party more than 90% of the time. Democrat Max Baucus is slightly more conservative than the median Senator and Fred Upton is slightly more liberal than the median Representative, though Rob Portman has also been mentioned as somebody potentially willing to compromise in news reports despite his conservative voting record.

In the Senate it's plain to see that Harry Reid nominated far more moderate members than did Mitch McConnell (by both relative ranks within their party and absolute voting numbers) -- indeed, the most moderate Republican is more conservative than the least moderate Democrat is liberal. In the House, the story is more muddled. Relative to their respective caucuses the Republicans are more moderate, but based on their absolute voting records the Democrats could be seen as slightly more moderate.

On average, the Democrats on the committee are more liberal than 49% of their caucus and have voted with their party 89.3% of the time while the Republicans on the committee are more conservative than 63% of their caucus and have voted with their party 95% of the time. Based on these metrics, the Democrats could be described as more moderate than are the Republicans.

But the political leanings of the average member from each party may be less important than the potential swing votes. Any chance of the committee's recommendation receiving 7 votes may hinge on Republicans convincing Max Baucus to go along with their plan or Democrats convincing Fred Upton to go along with theirs. It seems somewhat less likely that the seven most moderate members across party lines would reach an agreement given that only 4 have more moderate voting records than the median member of their party.

It's too early to give up hope entirely, but the voting records of the members of the committee appear to allow little chance of a productive and civil session. The better idea would have been to allow the four leaders to appoint one or more members from the opposite party to the committee.


Senate Democrats				Senate Republicans
	Liberal Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile		Conservative Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile
Max Baucus	52nd	75.49%	2%	Jon Kyl*	16th	96.20%	66%
Patty Murray*	26th	91.11%	51%	Rob Portman	12th	96.36%	74%
John Kerry	24th	91.50%	55%	Pat Toomey	2nd	98.15%	96%

House Democrats				House Republicans
	Liberal Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile		Conservative Rank	% Voting with Party	Party Percentile
James Clyburn	121st	89.48%	37%	Fred Upton	218th	84.70%	9%
Chris Van Hollen	60th	93.45%	69%	Dave Camp	150th	97.05%	37%
Xavier Becerra	41st	94.49%	79%	Jeb Hensarling	13th	97.80%	95%

*co-chairs

liberal/conservative rank: 1st corresponds to most liberal/conservative member of that body, the Senate has 53 Democrats (including two Independents) and 47 Republicans while the House has 240 Republicans and 193 Democrats

% Voting with Party: The percentage of the member's vote that have aligned with the party position during their career.

Party Percentile: The percentage of their respective caucus who the member is more liberal (in the case of Democrats) or conservative (in the case of Republicans) than: a higher number represents a less moderate politician.

Is the SEC the Best Conference?

2010-11-28T13:20:00.000-06:00

There are a million ways to answer the question, but the best evidence would be head-to-head match-ups with non-conference teams. Here are the SEC's victories over other BCS conference teams (in order from most to least impressive):

Florida (7-5) beat S. Florida (7-4) at home, 38-14
#8 Arkansas (10-2) won at #19 Texas A&M (9-3), 24-17
#17 Alabama (9-3) beat Penn St. (7-5) at home, 24-0
#11 LSU (10-2) beat W. Virginia (7-4) at home, 20-14
Kentucky (6-6) won at Louisville (6-6), 23-16
#18 S. Carolina (9-3) won at Clemson (6-6), 29-7
Georgia (6-6) beat Georgia Tech (6-6) at home, 42-34
#2 Auburn (12-0) beat Clemson (6-6) at home, 27-24
#11 LSU (10-2) beat N. Carolina (7-5) on a neutral field, 30-24
#17 Alabama (9-3) won at Duke(3-9), 62-13

That the two most impressive victories were against South Florida and Texas A&M really says it all about this list. SEC teams have, collectively, beaten only one ranked non-conference team and two other teams (both from the weak Big East) with fewer than five losses. In short, the SEC's victories against non-conference teams tell us almost nothing about the strength of the SEC.

What about the non-conference losses? Here are the SEC's losses to other BCS conference teams (in order from least to most embarrassing):

Vanderbilt (2-10) lost at home to Northwestern (7-5), 23-21
Tennessee (6-6) lost at home to #1 Oregon (11-0), 48-13
Vanderbilt (2-10) lost at UConn (7-4), 40-21
Florida (7-5) lost at #22 Florida St. (9-3), 31-7
Vanderbilt (2-10) lost at home to Wake Forest (3-9), 34-13
Georgia (6-6) lost at Colorado (5-7), 29-27

The list doesn't include Ole Miss's loss to Jacksonville St. and also doesn't shed a whole lot of light on the SEC's strength, as most of the match-ups were lopsided or involved Vanderbilt.

Overall, the SEC was 10-6 against BCS conference teams and 1-2 against ranked BCS conference teams. The conference was 1-5 when playing teams with fewer losses; 2-0 when playing teams with identical records; and 7-1 when playing teams with worse records. The conference was 5-3 at home; 4-3 on the road; and 1-0 on a neutral field.

So, what does this tell us about the strength of the SEC? Not much. 16 games played by a conference of 12 teams is almost never going to tell us all that much. It seems obvious both that the SEC isn't far worse than every other conference but also that it isn't far better than every other conference this year. I'm not sure anybody would disagree that the SEC has been the strongest conference over the past five years, but we simply don't have enough evidence to conclusively claim the same this year.

Top 25 Update

2010-10-24T00:47:00.000-05:00

How things appear after today's games, with strengths and weaknesses of each team:

teams that look really good so far

1.) Oregon
strengths: outscored Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters; dominant in 2nd half all season; explosive offense
weaknesses: outscored in the first half by Arizona St.; let Washington St. and Tennessee hang around too long

2.) Boise St.
strengths: beat VaTech; handled Oregon St.
weaknesses: no decisive victories over top teams; weak schedule

3.) TCU
strengths: beat Oregon St.; crushed Baylor; crushed Air Force
weaknesses: were only up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.

teams that might be really good

4.) Auburn
strengths: beat South Carolina; beat Arkansas; the next Tim Tebow at QB

weaknesses: almost lost to Mississippi St.; almost lost to Kentucky; almost lost to Clemson

5.) Alabama
strengths: crushed Florida; beat Arkansas; dominant running game
weaknesses: lost to S. Carolina; inconsistent passing game; young defense

6.) Michigan St.
strengths: beat Wisconsin; beat Michigan
weaknesses: needed a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame; barely beat Northwestern

7.) Arizona
strengths: soundly beat Iowa; crushed Washington
weaknesses: lost to Oregon St.

8.) Missouri
strengths: beat Oklahoma
weaknesses: no other victories over top teams

9.) Oklahoma
strengths: destroyed Florida St.; beat Air Force; beat Texas
weaknesses: barely escaped Cincy

10.) Wisconsin
strengths: beat Ohio St.; beat Iowa
weaknesses: struggled far too often against inferior teams

11.) Ohio St.
strengths: handled Miami; dynamic QB
weaknesses: escaped Illinois; no victories over top teams

12.) Stanford
strengths: beat USC; destroyed UCLA; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

13.) Utah
strengths: beat Pitt; blew out Iowa St.
weaknesses: only beat Pitt by 3 in OT; have yet to play a top team

14.) Florida State
strengths: beat Miami soundly; blew out 4 of other 6 opponents
weaknesses: blown out by Oklahoma; barely beat BC

teams that might be pretty good

15.) South Carolina
strengths: beat 'bama
weaknesses: lost to Kentucky; struggled to put away Vandy

16.) Nebraska
strengths: beat Oklahoma St.; destroyed Washington; destroyed Kansas St
weaknesses: lost to Texas; only beat South Dakota St. 17-3

17.) Iowa
strengths: soundly beat Penn St.; beat Michigan; elite defense
weaknesses: soundly beaten by Arizona; no victories over top teams

18.) LSU
strengths: beat Florida; played Auburn close; luckiest coach on Earth
weaknesses: almost blew a huge lead against a depleted UNC team; should've lost to Tennessee at home; almost lost to W. Virginia at home; took a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter; inconsistent offense

teams that haven't proven much of anything

19.) USC
strengths: crushed Cal; almost beat Stanford
weaknesses: lost to Washington; no victories over top teams

20.) Virginia Tech
strengths: almost beat Boise St.; beat NC State
weaknesses: lost to James Madison

21.) Oklahoma St.
strengths: undefeated; high-scoring offense
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Texas A&M; gave up 51 points to Nebraska

22.) Arkansas
strengths: almost beat Alabama; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: barely beat Texas A&M; gave up 65 points to Auburn; unimpressive win vs. Ole Miss; interception-prone QB

23.) Miami
strengths: crushed Pitt; crushed UNC
weaknesses: crushed by Florida St.; handled by Ohio St.; interception-prone QB

24.) Mississippi State
strengths: beat Florida
weaknesses: barely beat UAB;

25.) Nevada
strengths: destroyed Cal; prolific offense
weaknesses: struggled to put away BYU; lost to Hawaii

teams with resumes no less impressive

NC State
Pitt
Oregon St.
Baylor

Top 25 Update

2010-10-17T01:50:00.000-05:00

How things appear after today's games, with strengths and weaknesses of each team:

teams that look really good so far

1.) Oregon
strengths: outscored Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters; dominant in 2nd half all season; explosive offense
weaknesses: outscored in the first half by Arizona St.; let Washington St. and Tennessee hang around too long

2.) Boise St.
strengths: handled Oregon St.
weaknesses: escaped VaTech

3.) TCU
strengths: beat Oregon St.; crushed Baylor
weaknesses: were only up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.

4.) Oklahoma
strengths: destroyed Florida St.; beat Air Force; beat Texas
weaknesses: barely escaped Cincy

teams that might be really good

5.) Alabama
strengths: crushed Florida; beat Arkansas; dominant running game;
weaknesses: lost to S. Carolina; inconsistent passing game; young defense

6.) Auburn
strengths: beat South Carolina; beat Arkansas; the next Tim Tebow
weaknesses: almost lost to Mississippi St.; almost lost to Kentucky; almost lost to Clemson

7.) Michigan St.
strengths: beat Wisconsin; beat Michigan
weaknesses: needed a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame

8.) Arizona
strengths: soundly beat Iowa
weaknesses: lost to Oregon St.

9.) Iowa
strengths: soundly beat Penn St.; beat Michigan; elite defense
weaknesses: soundly beaten by Arizona; no victories over top teams

10.) Wisconsin
strengths: beat Ohio St.
weaknesses: struggled far too often against inferior teams

11.) Ohio St.
strengths: handled Miami; dynamic QB
weaknesses: escaped Illinois; no victories over top teams

12.) Stanford
strengths: beat USC; destroyed UCLA; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

13.) Utah
strengths: beat Pitt
weaknesses: only beat Pitt by 3 in OT; have yet to play a top team

14.) Florida State
strengths: beat Miami soundly; blew out 4 of other 6 opponents
weaknesses: blown out by Oklahoma; barely beat BC

teams that might be pretty good

15.) South Carolina
strengths: beat 'bama
weaknesses: lost to Kentucky; inconsistent offense

16.) Nebraska
strengths: destroyed Washington; destroyed Kansas St.; talented QB
weaknesses: lost to Texas; only beat South Dakota St. 17-3; young QB

17.) LSU
strengths: beat Florida; luckiest coach on Earth
weaknesses: almost blew a huge lead against a depleted UNC team; should've lost to Tennessee at home; almost lost to W. Virginia at home; took a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter; inconsistent offense; playing poorly and using poor strategy is bound to backfire eventually

18.) Texas
strengths: beat Nebraska; loads of talent
weaknesses: blown out at home by UCLA; no impressive victories; inexperienced QB

teams that haven't proven much of anything

19.) Oklahoma St.
strengths: undefeated; high-scoring offense
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Texas A&M

20.) Arkansas
strengths: almost beat Alabama; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: almost lost to Georgia; barely beat Texas A&M; interception-prone QB; suspect defense

21.) West Virginia
strengths: 5-1
weaknesses: no really impressive victories; almost lost to Marshall

22.) USC
strengths: crushed Cal; almost beat Stanford
weaknesses: lost to Washington; no victories over top teams

23.) Virginia Tech
strengths: almost beat Boise St.; beat NC State
weaknesses: lost to James Madison

24.) Missouri
strengths: undefeated; beat San Diego St.

weaknesses: haven't beaten any other teams with a winning record

25.) Nevada
strengths: destroyed Cal; prolific offense
weaknesses: struggled to put away BYU; lost to Hawaii

teams with resumes no less impressive

Mississippi St.
Miami

Kansas St.
North Carolina
NC State
Rutgers
Oregon St.

Top 25 Update

2010-10-10T01:10:00.001-05:00

How things appear after today's games, with strengths and weaknesses of each team:

teams that look really good so far

1.) Oregon
strengths: outscored Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters; dominant in 2nd half all season; explosive offense
weaknesses: outscored in the first half by Arizona St.; let Washington St. and Tennessee hang around too long

2.) Ohio St.
strengths: handling Miami
weaknesses: escaping Illinois

3.) Boise St.
strengths: handling Oregon St.
weaknesses: escaping VaTech

4.) TCU
strengths: beat Oregon St.; crushed Baylor
weaknesses: were only up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.

5.) Oklahoma
strengths: destroyed Florida St.; beat Air Force; beat Texas
weaknesses: barely escaped Cincy

teams that might be really good

6.) Nebraska
strengths: destroyed Washington; destroyed Kansas St.; talented QB
weaknesses: haven't played a top team; only beat South Dakota St. 17-3; young QB

7.) Auburn
strengths: beat South Carolina
weaknesses: almost lost to Mississippi; almost lost to Kentucky; almost lost to Clemson

8.) South Carolina
strengths: beat 'bama
weaknesses: no other really impressive victories; inconsistent offense

9.) Alabama
strengths: crushed Florida; beat Arkansas; dominant running game; probably better than many teams above them
weaknesses: lost to S. Carolina; inconsistent passing game; young defense

teams that are probably pretty good

10.) Michigan St.
strengths: beat Wisconsin; beat Michigan

weaknesses: needed a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame

11.) Arizona
strengths: soundly beat Iowa
weaknesses: lost to Oregon St.

12.) Iowa
strengths: soundly beat Penn St.; elite defense
weaknesses: soundly beaten by Arizona

13.) Arkansas
strengths: almost beat Alabama; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: almost lost to Georgia; barely beat Texas A&M; interception-prone QB

14.) Stanford
strengths: beat USC; destroyed UCLA; strong-armed QB
weaknesses: outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

15.) Utah
strengths: beat Pitt; blew out Iowa St.
weaknesses: only beat Pitt by 3 in OT; have yet to play a top team

16.) Florida State
strengths: beat Miami; blew out 4 of other 5 opponents
weaknesses: blown out by Oklahoma

teams that might be pretty good

17.) Nevada
strengths: destroyed Cal; prolific offense
weaknesses: struggled to put away BYU

18.) LSU
strengths: beat Florida; luckiest coach on Earth
weaknesses: almost blew a huge lead against a depleted UNC team; should've lost to Tennessee at home; almost lost to W. Virginia at home; took a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter; inconsistent offense; playing poorly and using poor strategy is bound to backfire eventually

19.) Air Force
strengths: almost beat Oklahoma on the road; beat Navy; strong ground game
weaknesses: only beat Wyoming by 6; less talent than top teams

20.) Oregon St.
strengths: beat Arizona
weaknesses: lost to Boise/TCU

21.) North Carolina State
strengths: soundly beat Georgia Tech; beat Cincy; dynamic QB
weaknesses: blew large lead against Virginia Tech; barely beat UCF

Teams that haven't really earned a spot in the top 25, but I can't just leave the rest blank

22.) Wisconsin
strengths: managed to win 5 games
weaknesses: struggled far too often against inferior teams

23.) Texas
strengths: played in the national title game last year; beat Texas Tech; loads of talent
weaknesses: blown out at home by UCLA; no impressive victories; inexperienced QB

24.) Oklahoma St.
strengths: undefeated; high-scoring offense
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Texas A&M

25.) West Virginia
strengths: 4-1
weaknesses: no impressive victories; almost lost to Marshall

teams with resumes no less impressive

Miami
Florida
Missouri

I'm skeptical that South Carolina or Auburn are legitimate top 10 teams, but Auburn has to be above S. Carolina, who has to be above Alabama, who I'm pretty sure is a legitimate top 10 team (at least). On a related note, I'd be shocked if Alabama won out and didn't go to the national championship game over an undefeated Boise State, TCU, Utah, or Nevada.

Top 25 Update

2010-10-03T00:34:00.002-05:00

After 5 weeks of football, we now have enough info to start making some educated guesses as to which are the best teams in college football. Here's how I'd rank the top 25, with the most impressive and least impressive thing that each team has done:

teams that are probably really good

1.) Alabama
most impressive: crushing Florida
least impressive: getting down early vs. Arkansas

2.) Oregon
most impressive: outscoring Stanford 49-10 the last three quarters
least impressive: being outscored in the first half by Arizona St.

3.) Ohio St.
most impressive: handling Miami
least impressive: escaping Illinois

4.) Boise St.
most impressive: handling Oregon St.
least impressive: escaping VaTech

teams that might be really good

5.) TCU
most impressive: crushing Baylor?
least impressive: being up 6-0 at halftime vs. Colorado St.

6.) Oklahoma
most impressive: destroying Florida St.
least impressive: barely escaping Cincy

7.) Nebraska
most impressive: destroying Washington
least impressive: beating South Dakota St. 17-3

8.) Arkansas
most impressive: almost beating Alabama
least impressive: almost losing to Georgia

9.) Arizona
most impressive: soundly beating Iowa
least impressive: barely beating Cal

10.) Iowa
most impressive: soundly beating Penn St.
being soundly beaten by Arizona

teams that are probably pretty good

11.) Florida
most impressive: not losing its first 4 games despite trying pretty hard to do so
least impressive: being crushed by Alabama

12.) Stanford
most impressive: destroying UCLA
least impressive: being outscored 49-10 by Oregon the last three quarters

13.) Auburn
most impressive: beating South Carolina
least impressive: almost losing to Mississippi

14.) Utah
most impressive: beating Pitt
least impressive: only beating Pitt by 3 in OT

teams that might be pretty good

15.) Michigan St.
most impressive: beating Wisconsin
least impressive: needing a trick play in OT to beat Notre Dame

16.) Michigan
most impressive: its offense in every game
least impressive: its defense in every game

17.) Miami
most impressive: destroying Pitt
least impressive: every ball Jacory Harris floats up in the air hoping it gets caught by his team

18.) Nevada
most impressive: destroying Cal
least impressive: struggling to put away BYU

19.) LSU
most impressive: somehow winning every game they've played
least impressive: the offense, almost blowing a huge lead against a depleted UNC team, almost losing to Tennessee at home, almost losing to W. Virginia at home, taking a 10-3 lead against Vandy into the 4th quarter, and being far more talented than every team they've played but still routinely being outplayed . . . also, why wasn't LSU flagged on the penultimate play against UT when the player removed his helmet and threw it to the ground? I'd have to surmise it was b/c the refs thought the game was over. Oops.

20.) Air Force
most impressive: almost beating Oklahoma on the road
least impressive: only beating Wyoming by 6

teams that are probably above average and could possibly be better, but we're not really sure

21.) South Carolina
most impressive: beating Georgia?
least impressive: that their signature win came when they scored 17 points against a now 1-4 team

22.) Wisconsin
most impressive: managing to win their first 4 games
least impressive: struggling to win too many of their first 4 games

23.) Texas
most impressive: playing in the national title game last year
least impressive: being blown out at home by UCLA

23.) Florida State
most impressive: blowing out 4 of their 5 opponents
least impressive: getting blown out by Oklahoma

24.) North Carolina State
most impressive: soundly beating Georgia Tech
least impressive: blowing a large lead against Virginia Tech

25.) Kansas St.
most impressive: beating above average teams UCLA and Iowa St.
least impressive: only beating UCF by 4

As you can see, there aren't many teams that have done much to prove themselves this year. I'm confident that the top 10 teams are all good teams that deserve to be ranked in the top 25, but the next 10 are dicey and after #20 we might as well just pull 5 teams out of a hat.

Has Opinion on Health Care Shifted?

2010-03-29T02:29:00.000-05:00

For months leading up to the passage of health care, the pollster.com average found a net plurality of around 5-12 percentage points disapproved of the plan. The first poll taken after passage, however, found the public in favor of the plan by a 49-40 margin. Was that just an outlier, or has opinion actually shifted?

There have been five polls polls taken after passage of the bill. Here's how they stack up:

	Favor	Oppose	Net
WaPo	46	50	-4
CBS	42	46	-4
Quinnipiac	40	49	-9
USA Today-Gallup	49	40	9
YouGov	50	50	0
average	45.4	47	-1.6

Across these five polls, a plurality still disapprove of health care -- but only a very slight one. Let's compare them to the last five polls released before passage:

	Favor	Oppose	Net
Bloomberg	38	50	-12
CNN	39	59	-20
CBS	37	48	-11
Quinnipiac	36	54	-18
Rasmussen	41	54	-13
average	38.2	53	-14.8

The last five polls were among the most negative of the past year. Whether this is due to the build-up before passage or simply the five that happened to be last, I can't quite say. Comparing these 10, we see a 13 point swing in net approval of the health care bill. But this might not be the right comparison groups. Given the different questions and samples of the polls, it might be better to compare polls taken by the same organization before and after. There have been three of these:

	After			Before
	Favor	Oppose	Net	Favor	Oppose	Net
CBS	42	46	-4	37	48	-11
Quinnipiac	40	49	-9	36	54	-18
YouGov	50	50	0	48	53	-5
average	44	48.33	-4.33	40.33	51.67	-11.33

Looking at only these three, we find a 7 point swing in net approval -- and we still see a small plurality (though not majority) opposed to the bill.

The trend could be just a blip, could be based on a few faulty polls, or could be a genuine shift in how Americans view the health care bill (or at least how they report they feel). If the first two are true, new polls will pretty quickly bear this out. But there are two fairly good reasons to believe that the last one is, in fact, happening:

1.) The initial results were misleading. Take the these results from a Bloomberg poll taken right before the vote in which 38% favored the bill and 50% were opposed

Health care is so complicated it is hard for the average American to understand the proposals that are currently being discussed
75% Agree, 23% Disagree

The cost of doing nothing on health care will be greater than the cost of the proposed plan to overhaul it
51% Agree, 40% Disagree

The health care system is fine the way it is
20% Agree, 79% Disagree

In short, people don't know much about the health care bill but they want to do something to fix the broken health care system.

2.) As 538 points out, a small but meaningful number of people opposed the bill b/c it wasn't liberal enough. The approval numbers among Independents and Republicans in the new USA Today/Gallup poll is roughly similar to other previous polls, but the approval numbers among Democrats are much higher.

In the last poll before the bill passed (and outlier in terms of negativity toward the bill), conducted by CNN, 59% reported that they were opposed to the bill -- but 13% reported opposing the bill b/c it wasn't liberal enough. In other words, 52% of the population either favored the bill or thought it wasn't liberal enough while 43% opposed the bill b/c it was too liberal.

The Pirates' Turnaround: Where's the Proof?

2010-03-10T14:00:00.000-06:00

After a multi-part fire sale and two consecutive years of record draft expenditures, the Pirates' brass claims to have transformed the system so that the team can now build from within. But where's the evidence of this?

In a 30 team league, only two Pirates ranked among the top 100 prospects, their fewest since 2005, (all-time list of Pirates who have ranked among BA's top 100 ) -- only two organizations had fewer this year. Even worse, it appears that only four would rank among the top 200 or so . . . and three of these four are slated to make their major league debuts this year.

So even if those three pan out, where does this leave the team next year and down the road? Will lower rated players and new draft picks shine this summer and move up the ranks? While that might have seemed like a legitimate hope five years ago, it hasn't happened much recently.

When we look at the past couple years, that possibility looks less likely than one might imagine. Of last year's top 10 prospects, one (McCutchen) moved up to the bigs, three maintained their positions (Alvarez, Tabata, and Lincoln), and the other 6 dropped out of the top 10. If we go back another year to the 2008 top 10, we see that only two (McCutchen and Lincoln) made the bigs or remain top prospects. So even if we assume that the top four will pan out, the past few years don't lend much evidence that numbers 5-10 will move up the ranks.

Indeed, if we go back further and examine the Pirates' top ten prospects over the past 7 years we see that only one player (Steve Pearce, #8-2006/#3-2007) has moved from the bottom half to the top half of the list in the past 5. As the table below shows, 17 of the 18 prospects ranked 5-10 dropped off the list the following year (1, Pearce, moved up to the majors) between 2007 and 2010. Between 2004 and 2007, however, only 4 dropped off the list the following year while 7 remained on the list and 8 moved up to the majors.

Pirates Prospects #5-10 the following year

years	steady	up	down	majors	dropped
2009-10	0	0	0	0	6
2008-09	0	0	0	0	6
2007-08	0	1	0	0	5
2006-07	0	0	0	6	0
2005-06	0	3	1	1	1
2004-05	0	2	0	1	3

As you might notice from the tables I linked to, all of the prospects who topped out in the bottom five and went on to become impact major leaguers -- Nate McLouth (#6, 2006), Matt Capps (#10, 2006), Freddy Sanchez (#7, 2004), and Ryan Doumit (#10, 2004) -- were from the earlier time period. Daniel McCutchen is the only name that stands out from 2007-09 who could potentially be added to that list. And maybe it's just my imagination, but it seems that the lists have recently been dominated by first-round draft picks and outside acquisitions while in the past there were more later round draft picks (e.g. Zach Duke, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell) who ascended up the list.

Of course, maybe this year will be different. After all, in addition to standouts Alvarez and Sanchez, they have five former top 100 prospects (Jose Tabata, Gorkys Hernandez, Brad Lincoln, Neil Walker, and Tim Alderson) in their system along with a number of later-round selections from the past couple years who signed for over-slot bonuses. Maybe the new management team's draft and development brilliance will begin to shine through this year (and, given the discussion above, it might be imperative that it does). But such an occurrence would stand in stark contrast to recent trends.

I suppose the best measure may come when Baseball America ranks farm systems again -- the Pirates ranked 18th last year. Though, given the context, I'd argue that next year's rating might be far more important.

As a Pirates fan, I very much want to believe that new management has transformed the minor league system. But I see very little objective evidence that it has.

Final Top 25 Update

2010-01-08T08:37:00.000-06:00

Even though I think bowl games are meaningless, I couldn't resist one last update. Here's how the bowl season played out (teams that lost crossed out):

Previous		Projected		My Rankings
1.	Alabama	1.	Alabama	1.	Alabama
2.	~~Texas~~	2.	Florida	2.	Florida
3.	~~TCU~~	3.	Boise State	3.	Texas
4.	~~Cincinnati~~	4.	Texas	4.	Boise State
5.	Florida	5.	Ohio State	5.	TCU
6.	Boise State	6.	TCU	6.	Ohio State
7.	~~Oregon~~	7.	Cincinnati	7.	Iowa
8.	Ohio State	8.	Iowa	8.	Cincinnati
9.	~~Georgia Tech~~	9.	Penn State	9.	Penn State
10.	Iowa	10.	VA Tech	10.	VA Tech
11.	Penn State	11.	Oregon	11.	Oregon
12.	Virginia Tech	12.	GA Tech	12.	GA Tech
13.	~~LSU~~	13.	BYU	13.	Pitt
14.	~~Miami (Fla.)~~	14.	Pitt	14.	Nebraska
15.	Brigham Young	15.	Nebraska	15.	Wisconsin
16.	~~Oregon State~~	16.	LSU	16.	LSU
17.	Pittsburgh	17.	Miami (Fla.)	17.	Miami (Fla.)
18.	~~West Virginia~~	18.	Utah	18.	Tex Tech
19.	~~Stanford~~	19.	Wisconsin	19.	BYU
20.	Nebraska	20.	C. Michigan	20.	Oregon St.
21.	~~Okla St.~~	21.	Tex Tech	21.	USC
22.	~~Arizona~~	22.	Oregon St.	22.	Ole Miss
23.	Utah	23.	USC	23.	Rutgers
24.	Wisconsin	24.	Clemson	24.	Stanford
25.	C. Michigan	25.	Ole Miss	25.	W. Virginia
26.	~~E. Carolina~~	26.	W. Virginia	26.	C. Michigan
27.	~~Houston~~	27.	Stanford
28.	Texas Tech	28.	OK State
29.	USC	29.	Rutgers
30.	~~Northwestern~~	30.	Georgia
31.	Clemson	31.	Navy
32.	~~Cal~~	32.	Oklahoma
33.	Ole Miss
34.	~~UNC~~
35.	Oklahoma
36.	~~Tennessee~~
37.	~~Missouri~~

Other Random Thoughts

-I don't attach much, if any, meaning to the outcomes of the bowl games. The teams often have layoffs of a month or more, coaching staffs turnover, seniors start thinking about the NFL, teams play in weird places and try out new schemes, and so on . . . In the end, all but one of them is an exhibition game and the National Championship Game has had more than its share of fluky results as well.

-I'm not sure if I've ever seen two less impressive teams in the title game. Despite Texas trying very hard to lose the game, it took Alabama 58 minutes to seal the deal. In the end, 'bama only passed for 58 yards and averaged 4.0 yards per rush. Despite Texas' offensive ineptitude, they actually outgained 'bama. It's impossible to say whether the game wouldn't turned out differently had McCoy not gotten hurt, but I'm pretty darn sure that McCoy wouldn't have finished 15/40 with 4 INT's.

-Here are the final conference records for the bowl games. Again, not that this means much:

Conf.	W	L	%
Big East	4	2	0.667
SEC	6	4	0.600
Big Ten	4	3	0.571
Pac 10	3	4	0.429
ACC	3	4	0.429
Big XII	3	5	0.375

Are the Pirates Really a "Small-Market" Team?

2009-12-16T02:34:00.001-06:00

In today's posting on the Pittsburgh Baseball Club blog, Pirates Columnist Dejan Kovacevic takes issue with those who call Pittsburgh a "small-market" team. He cites a list of US television markets ranked by size to show that there are a number of teams based in smaller markets than Pittsburgh. Using that same list and simply dividing by two when a market has two teams, we end up with the table below of teams ranked by TV market size. The Pirates rank 25th out of 30 teams.

It seems to me that ranking at the 17th percentile in terms of market size would merit the term "small-market". To make matters worse, a number of teams below the Pirates have sizable fan bases in nearby large markets. The Orioles have a numbers of fans in the DC/Hagerstown and Norfolk/Portsmouth/Newport News areas and the Reds have fans in the Columbus and Nashville areas. All four of these markets are made up around a million households or more. What other large market contains a significant number of Pirates fans? Harrisburg? The closest team above the Pirates are the Cardinals, who have a number of fans in nearby Memphis. In short, the only teams that I'm confident don't have more people within their area of influence (or "country of baseball") are San Diego, Kansas City, and Milwaukee. Even if it's the case that these three teams are in smaller markets, that doesn't disprove the notion that Pittsburgh is a small market -- remember, it's small market; not smallest market.

In terms of his other points, I agree that market-size is not a huge issue for the Steelers and Penguins -- partially due to salary caps in their respective leagues and partially due to the immense popularity of the two teams -- and that a market, to some extent, is what a teams makes of it. I guess the demarcation is between saying that the Pirates are hampered between being in a small market and saying that the Pirates can never compete because they're in a small market. The former is demonstrably true, while the latter is demonstrably false.

Rank	Team	Designated Market Area (DMA)	TV Households
1	Yankees	New York, NY (/2)	3,746,765
2	Mets	New York, NY (/2)	3,746,765
3	Phillies	Philadelphia, PA	2,955,190
4	Dodgers	Los Angeles, CA (/2)	2,829,585
5	Angels	Los Angeles, CA (/2)	2,829,585
6	Rangers	Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX	2,544,410
7	Red Sox	Boston, MA (Manchester, NH)	2,410,180
8	Blue Jays	Toronto (est*)	2,400,000
9	Braves	Atlanta, GA	2,387,520
10	Nationals	Washington, DC (Hagerstown, MD)	2,335,040
11	Astros	Houston, TX	2,123,460
12	Tigers	Detroit, MI	1,890,220
13	Diamondbacks	Phoenix, AZ	1,873,930
14	Mariners	Seattle-Tacoma, WA	1,833,990
15	Rays	Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), FL	1,805,810
16	Cubs	Chicago, IL (/2)	1,750,505
17	White Sox	Chicago, IL (/2)	1,750,505
18	Twins	Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN	1,732,050
19	Rockies	Denver, CO	1,539,380
20	Marlins	Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL	1,538,090
21	Indians	Cleveland-Akron (Canton), OH	1,520,750
22	Giants	San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA (/2)	1,251,700
23	A's	San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA (/2)	1,251,700
24	Cardinals	St. Louis, MO	1,249,450
25	Pirates	Pittsburgh, PA	1,154,950
26	Orioles	Baltimore, MD	1,093,170
27	Padres	San Diego, CA	1,073,390
28	Royals	Kansas City, MO	941,360
29	Reds	Cincinnati, OH	918,670
30	Brewers	Milwaukee, WI	901,790

notes: Dividing markets in half when that market has two teams results in misleading numbers, both because fan bases aren't split 50/50 and because most of those teams have geographic bases that cover other markets (e.g. the Yankees and Hartford, the Giants and Sacramento, and the Mariners and Portland (OR)). The figure for Toronto was estimated based on the fact that Toronto's metro area of 5.5 million people is slightly larger than the metro area for Atlanta. I don't know what their actual Nielsen-equivalent number of households would be, but it's clearly much larger than the Pirates.

Top 25 Update

2009-12-06T00:05:00.001-06:00

How this weekend played out:
(Teams that lost crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green)
update: actual rankings in parentheses -- I was within 1 for 19/30 teams

Previous		Projected		My Rankings
1.	~~Florida~~	1.	Alabama (1)	1.	Alabama
2.	Alabama	2.	Texas (2)	2.	Texas
3.	Texas	3.	TCU (3)	3.	Cincinnati
4.	TCU	4.	Cincinnati (4)	4.	TCU
5.	Cincinnati	5.	Florida (5)	5.	Florida
6.	Boise State	6.	Boise State (6)	6.	Boise State
7.	Oregon	7.	Oregon (7)	7.	Oregon
8.	Ohio State	8.	Ohio State (8)	8.	Ohio State
9.	Iowa	9.	Iowa (10)	9.	Iowa
10.	Penn State	10.	Penn State (11)	10.	Penn State
11.	Virginia Tech	11.	Virginia Tech (12)	11.	Virginia Tech
12.	Georgia Tech	12.	Georgia Tech (9)	12.	Georgia Tech
13.	~~Oregon State~~	13.	LSU (13)	13.	Oregon State
14.	~~Pitt~~	14.	Oregon St. (16)	14.	LSU
15.	LSU	15.	Pitt (17)	15.	Miami (Fla.)
16.	BYU	16.	BYU (15)	16.	West Virginia
17.	Miami (Fla.)	17.	Miami (Fla.) (14)	17.	Pitt
18.	~~Houston~~	18.	OK State (21)	18.	Stanford
19.	~~California~~	19.	Stanford (19)	19.	Nebraska
20.	~~USC~~	20.	West Virginia (18)	20.	Arizona
21.	~~Nebraska~~	21.	Nebraska (20)	21.	Wisconsin
22.	OK State	22.	Arizona (22)	22.	OK State
23.	Stanford	23.	Wisconsin (24)	23.	Clemson
24.	West Virginia	24.	Utah (23)	24.	Tex Tech
25.	~~Clemson~~	25.	Tex Tech (28)	25.	USC
26.	Utah	26.	USC (29)	26.	UNC
27.	Wisconsin	27.	Clemson (31)
28.	Tex Tech	28.	Ole Miss (33)
29.	Arizona	29.	Northwestern (30)
30.	Ole Miss	30.	C. Michigan (25)
31.	Northwestern
32.	C. Michigan

Other Random Thoughts

-Despite a number of exciting games, that was the least interesting second half of a season in recent memory -- zero (0) major upsets and virtually no BCS drama. At least 'bama v. Texas should be an interesting match-up in the title game.

-Nebraska and Pitt both lost, in part, because of ultra-conservative play-calling late in the game. Both have good defenses, but the coaches need to realize that good offense beats good defense right now in college football . . . and their teams were playing two of the best offenses in the country. In Pitt's case, it marks the second time they've lost this year after being up 14 points in the 4th quarter.

-Worst play call by Pitt: an inside hand-off to their fullback on 3rd and 24 in the 3rd quarter. 2nd worst play call: a play-action pass (that resulted in a sack) on 4th down with 10 seconds left and 50+ yards away from FG range.

-It appeared that Pelini's decision to simply move the ball to the middle of the field on 3rd and 6 worked out well when they made a go ahead FG on the next play with 1:44 left. But 1:44 is an awful lot of time for Colt McCoy to move his team into FG range.

-Speaking of McCoy, he almost made one of the dumbest plays of all time when he inexplicably let the game clock tick down to only 7 seconds remaining before snapping the ball. Despite the initial controversy, there's absolutely no doubt that there was, in fact, 1 second left when his pass hit the ground. But, still . . . what was he thinking?

-Somebody said there was an ACC title game today? Did anybody else hear that rumor?

-Predicted Heisman voting:
1.) Ingram
2.) McCoy
3.) Suh
4.) Gerhart
5.) Tebow
6.) Spiller
7.) Tate

-My Heisman Ballot:
1.) Ingram
2.) Suh
3.) Spiller

update: I got the top 5 in the Heisman voting right, though time will tell how close I was on the order. I think Suh might be higher and McCoy lower than I originally predicted.

Top 25 Update

2009-11-14T23:41:00.002-06:00

How this weekend played out:
(teams that won crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses -- I was within one for all of the top 17, but for only 3 of the next 17

Previous		Projected		My Rankings
1.	Florida	1.	Florida (1)	1.	Texas
2.	Texas	2.	Texas (3)	2.	Alabama
3.	Alabama	3.	Alabama (2)	3.	Florida
4.	TCU	4.	TCU (4)	4.	TCU
5.	Cincy	5.	Cincy (5)	5.	Cincy
6.	Boise St.	6.	Boise St. (6)	6.	Pitt
7.	GA Tech	7.	GA Tech (7)	7.	GA Tech
8.	Pitt	8.	Pitt (8)	8.	Ohio St.
9.	LSU	9.	Ohio St. (9)	9.	Oregon
10.	Ohio St.	10.	LSU (10)	10.	LSU
11.	~~USC~~	11.	Oregon (11)	11.	Boise St.
12.	~~Miami~~	12.	OK State (12)	12.	Iowa
13.	~~Houston~~	13.	Penn St. (13)	13.	Penn St.
14.	Oregon	14.	Stanford (14)	14.	Stanford
15.	~~Iowa~~	15.	VaTech (16)	15.	VaTech
16.	~~Utah~~	16.	Wisconsin (17)	16.	Wisconsin
17.	OK State	17.	Clemson (18)	17.	Oregon St.
18.	~~Arizona~~	18.	Iowa (15)	18.	Rutgers
19.	Penn St.	19.	Oregon St. (20)	19.	OK State
20.	VaTech	20.	USC (22)	20.	USC
21.	Wisconsin	21.	Rutgers (25)	21.	Clemson
22.	BYU	22.	Miami (21)	22.	Nebraska
23.	~~S. Florida~~	23.	Nebraska (27)	23.	UNC
24.	Clemson	24.	BYU (19)	24.	Miami
25.	Stanford	25.	UNC (26)	25.	Ole Miss
26.	Oregon St.	26.	Arizona (29)	26.	S. Florida
27.	~~W. Virginia~~	27.	Ole Miss (30)
28.	~~Auburn~~	28.	Navy (31)
29.	~~Texas Tech~~	29.	BC (38)
30.	Navy	30.	Utah (23)
31.	~~Tennessee~~	31.	Cal (28)
32.	Rutgers	32.	W. Virginia (35)
33.	Nebraska	33.	Houston (24)
		34.	S. Florida (NR)
		35.	Temple (32)

games between top 25 teams next week:

LSU at Ole Miss

other losable games for top 25 teams next week:

Ohio St. at Michigan
Duke at Miami
Oregon at Arizona
Minnesota at Iowa
Penn St. at Michigan St.
Wisconsin at Northwestern
Air Force at BYU
Cal at Stanford
UNC at BC
Kansas St. at Nebraska

other random thoughts:

-worst coaching move of the day goes to Kirk Ferentz of Iowa for running out the clock at the end of the game instead of trying to get into field goal position. When your team is tied on the road against a top team, you have to take risks to win. When his team had the ball within 40 yards of FG range with a minute on the clock he needed to make some sort of attempt to win the game. Instead, he let it go into overtime and promptly lost.

-I don't know why that ball Jimmy Clausen tried to throw was ruled a fumble instead of an incomplete pass. I've never seen a fumble propelled 8 yards forward by a QB's arm before. The only possible explanation that I can think of is that he lost control of the ball before his arm moved forward (sure would've been nice if Musberger, Herbstreit, or somebody from the ABC crew had taken the time to figure out what the actual rule was during the review or the next two minutes of game time).

-I still stand by my prediction that TCU will emerge as the best non-BCS conference team by the end of the year

-Iowa has two losses and beat Wisconsin and Penn State, who both have two losses as well, on the road. I'm betting the AP voters rank both ahead of Iowa anyway in this week's big rankings blunder. Other head-to-head winners with identical records that will likely be ranked below the team they beat: UNC behind Miami, Cal behind Oregon, and South Florida behind West Virginia
update: Miami is, indeed, 5 spots ahead of UNC -- who continues to get little respect. West Virginia is also ahead of South Florida, but Cal is one spot ahead of Arizona. And, no, I don't think it's a travesty that Houston is behind Oklahoma St. since their records outside of that game are totally different.

another update:
underrated teams: Iowa, Rutgers, UNC, S. Florida
overrated teams: Boise St., OK State, BYU, Utah, Houston

Top 25 Update

2009-11-07T23:43:00.001-06:00

How this weekend played out:
(teams that won crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses, I was way off -- only came within one place on 15/34 teams.

Previous		Projected		My Rankings
1.	Florida	1.	Florida (1)	1.	Alabama
2.	Texas	2.	Alabama (3)	2.	Florida
3.	Alabama	3.	Texas (2)	3.	Texas
4.	Cincy	4.	Cincy (5)	4.	Cincy
5.	Boise St.	5.	TCU (4)	5.	TCU
6.	TCU	6.	Boise St. (6)	6.	Pitt
7.	~~Oregon~~	7.	GA Tech (7)	7.	GA Tech
8.	~~Iowa~~	8.	Oregon (16)	8.	Boise St.
9.	~~LSU~~	9.	USC (10)	9.	Oregon
10.	GA Tech	10.	Ohio St. (8)	10.	USC
11.	~~Penn St.~~	11.	Pitt (9)	11.	Ohio St.
12.	USC	12.	Iowa (13)	12.	Iowa
13.	Houston	13.	LSU (11)	13.	Penn St.
14.	Pitt	14.	Houston (12)	14.	LSU
15.	Ohio St.	15.	Miami (15)	15.	VaTech
16.	Miami	16.	Utah (14)	16.	Wisconsin
17.	Utah	17.	Okla St. (18)	17.	Arizona
18.	Okla St.	18.	Arizona (19)	18.	Miami
19.	~~Notre Dame~~	19.	Penn St. (17)	19.	S. Florida
20.	Oklahoma	20.	VaTech (21)	20.	Stanford
21.	Arizona	21.	Stanford (27)	21.	W. Virginia
22.	VaTech	22.	Wisconsin (20)	22.	Houston
23.	~~Cal~~	23.	Oregon St. (28)	23.	Oregon St.
24.	Wisconsin	24.	BYU (22)	24.	Okla St.
25.	BYU	25.	Nebraska (30)	25.	Rutgers
26.	S. Florida	26.	S. Florida (24)	26.	Clemson
27.	Clemson	27.	Clemson (26)
28.	Auburn	28.	Auburn (25)
29.	Texas Tech	29.	Texas Tech (29)
30.	W. Virginia	30.	W. Virginia (NR)
31.	Rutgers	31.	Rutgers (37)
		32.	UNC (34)
		33.	Navy (31)
		34.	Notre Dame (NR)

Games between top 25 teams next week:

Utah at TCU
Iowa at Ohio St.
Stanford at USC

Other losable games for top 25 teams:

Notre Dame at Pitt
Florida at S. Carolina
Cincy vs. W. Virginia
Texas Tech at OK St.
Arizona at Cal
Michigan at Wisconsin
Washington at Oregon St.
Miami at UNC

Other random thoughts

-I'm confident that the top four teams are legitimately top 10 teams, I'm somewhat convinced that TCU belongs, but past that I'm really not sure. I'm not buying GA Tech, (who had another close win over a mediocre team) Boise St., (who had another close win over a below average team) or Pitt (who's schedule strength has been less than impressive) as legitimate top 10 teams at this point in time. And USC, Oregon, Ohio St., and Iowa seem to alternate between impressive and unimpressive victories on a weekly basis.

-It's hard to believe that Oregon will only drop one spot in the rankings after losing to Stanford, but they can't drop below USC, who can't drop below Ohio St. And how many teams can jump all three?
update: Apparently they can. Oregon trounced USC, who beat Ohio St. on the road. All three have identical records and pretty similar wins/losses outside of those games. But Ohio St. is #8, USC is #10, and Oregon is #16. Huh?

Top 25 Update

2009-10-31T22:55:00.003-05:00

How this weekend played out
(teams that won crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses. I did pretty well on the top 17 (15/17 within one spot), but horribly after that (4/16 within one spot).

Previous		Projected		My Rankings
1.	Florida	1.	Florida (1)	1.	Alabama
2.	Alabama	2.	Alabama (3)	2.	Florida
3.	Texas	3.	Texas (2)	3.	Texas
4.	~~USC~~	4.	Cincy (4)	4.	Cincy
5.	Cincy	5.	Boise St. (5)	5.	Iowa
6.	Boise St.	6.	Oregon (7)	6.	TCU
7.	Iowa	7.	Iowa (8)	7.	Penn St.
8.	TCU	8.	TCU (6)	8.	Boise St.
9.	LSU	9.	LSU (9)	9.	Oregon
10.	Oregon	10.	GA Tech (10)	10.	GA Tech
11.	GA Tech	11.	Penn St. (11)	11.	LSU
12.	Penn St.	12.	USC (12)	12.	USC
13.	~~Okla St.~~	13.	Pitt (14)	13.	Pitt
14.	~~VaTech~~	14.	Ohio St. (15)	14.	Ohio St.
15.	Houston	15.	Houston (13)	15.	Oklahoma
16.	Pitt	16.	Miami (16)	16.	VaTech
17.	Ohio St.	17.	Utah (17)	17.	Wisconsin
18.	Miami	18.	Oklahoma (20)	18.	Miami
19.	Utah	19.	Arizona (21)	19.	Arizona
20.	~~W. Virginia~~	20.	Okla St. (18)	20.	Houston
21.	~~S. Carolina~~	21.	Notre Dame (19)	21.	Notre Dame
22.	Oklahoma	22.	BYU (25)	22.	S. Florida
23.	Arizona	23.	VaTech (22)	23.	W. Virginia
24.	~~Ole Miss~~	24.	Cal (24)	24.	Okla St.
25.	Notre Dame	25.	Texas Tech (29)	25.	Cal
26.	BYU	26.	Wisconsin (24)	26.	Rutgers
27.	~~C. Michigan~~	27.	Clemson (27)
28.	Cal	28.	UNC (NR)
29.	Texas Tech	29.	S. Florida (26)
30.	Wisconsin	30.	W. Virginia (30)
31.	~~Navy~~	31.	Auburn (28)
32.	~~Kansas~~	32.	S. Carolina (37)
33.	Clemson	33.	Rutgers (31)

games between top 25 teams next week:

LSU at 'bama
Ohio St. at Penn St.

other losable games for top 25 teams:

UConn at Cincy
Wake Forest at GA Tech
Navy at Notre Dame
Oregon St. at Cal
Oklahoma at Nebraska

other random thoughts:

-Oregon has played too well the last few weeks to keep them out of the top ten, and maybe even the top five. But when Brent Musberger asked when we might start thinking about them as a possible BCS title game contender, there's an easy answer: when Boise State loses. They're playing as well as anybody in the country right now, but they were less than stellar the first three weeks of the season. If you look at their schedule, you'll see these results:

week 1: lost to Boise St. while looking out of sorts all game and going the entire first half without a first down
week 2: barely scraped by Purdue -- a team that lost to Northern Illinois the following week -- at home, a game in which they were outgained by over 100 yards
week 3: narrowly beat Utah at home in a game in which Masoli was 4-16 for 95 yards passing

Since then, they've been a different team (though Masoli's still not a great passer). So the question becomes: do we base Oregon's ranking on their play in October, or their play for the entire season? I think the answer is the latter -- which means that, at the very least, we cannot rank them ahead of Boise St. right now, regardless of what Kirk Herbstreit says. update: Last week, two people (one of them being Herbstreit) ranked Oregon above Boise St. This week, eight people did (not including Herbstreit, who apparently didn't vote this week).

-With VaTech losing and Miami and GA Tech both trailing during the second half, it was almost a nightmare week for ACC boosters. I think it's pretty unanimous that the Big East is the weakest BCS conference, but they'll have more top 15 teams when the next poll is released than will the ACC (2- Cincy and Pitt vs. 1-GA Tech). 5 out of 8 Big East teams have 2 losses or fewer, while that's only true of 2 out of 12 ACC teams. That doesn't mean that the former is stronger than the latter (it doesn't take schedule strength, for one, into account), but it sure is interesting.

-The bottom of the top 25 is once again complete chaos. I see about 16 teams that look pretty good, and then every team after that has significant weaknesses and/or lacks wins over good teams. I don't know who's best, for example, between Arizona, Notre Dame, and Utah -- but I do know they've given me little reason to think that they're elite teams.

-update: now that the standings are out, I'm picking Houston as the most overrated team (now that their wins against OK St. and Texas Tech look less impressive, their loss against UTEP even worse, and they're barely squeaking by teams like Southern Miss) and UNC as the most underrated team (how they failed to get a vote after beating VaTech on the road is beyond me). I'd pick Oklahoma State as the most likely to finish the season ranked lower than they are right now and Wisonsin, VaTech, and Oklahoma as the most likely to finish higher (not very adventurous on the latter two, I know).

Top 25 Update

2009-10-25T01:03:00.003-05:00

How this weekend played out
(teams that won crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses, I was within one spot for 29/31 teams in the easiest week to predict yet

Previous		Projected		My Rankings
1.	Alabama	1.	Alabama (2)	1.	Alabama
2.	Florida	2.	Florida (1)	2.	Florida
3.	Texas	3.	Texas (3)	3.	Texas
4.	USC	4.	USC (4)	4.	Cincy
5.	Cincy	5.	Cincy (5)	5.	USC
6.	Boise St.	6.	Boise St. (6)	6.	Iowa
7.	Iowa	7.	Iowa (7)	7.	TCU
8.	~~Miami~~	8.	LSU (9)	8.	Penn St.
9.	LSU	9.	TCU (8)	9.	GA Tech
10.	TCU	10.	GA Tech (11)	10.	Boise St.
11.	GA Tech	11.	Oregon (10)	11.	Houston
12.	Oregon	12.	Penn St. (12)	12.	Okla St.
13.	Penn St.	13.	Okla St. (13)	13.	Oregon
14.	OK St.	14.	VaTech (14)	14.	VaTech
15.	VaTech	15.	Houston (15)	15.	LSU
16.	~~BYU~~	16.	Ohio St. (17)	16.	Pitt
17.	Houston	17.	Miami (18)	17.	Ohio St.
18.	Ohio St.	18.	Pitt (16)	18.	Oklahoma
19.	Utah	19.	Utah (19)	19.	W. Virginia
20.	Pitt	20.	W. Virginia (20)	20.	Miami
21.	~~Tx Tech~~	21.	S. Carolina (21)	21.	Notre Dame
22.	West Virginia	22.	BYU (26)	22.	S. Carolina
23.	S. Carolina	23.	Oklahoma (22)	23.	Ole Miss
24.	~~Kansas~~	24.	Notre Dame (25)	24.	Arizona
25.	Oklahoma	25.	Ole Miss (24)	25.	Cal
26.	Notre Dame	26.	Arizona (23)	26.	Wisconsin
27.	Ole Miss	27.	C. Michigan (27)
28.	~~S. Florida~~	28.	Cal (28)
29.	~~Nebraska~~	29.	Wisconsin (30)
30.	~~Michigan~~	30.	Navy (31)
31.	C. Michigan	31.	Kansas (32)
32.	Cal
33.	Arizona

games between top 25 teams next week:
Texas at Oklahoma St.
USC at Oregon

Other losable games for top 25 teams:
Georgia at Florida
Indiana at Iowa
Miami at Wake Forest
Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt
UNC at VaTech
West Virgina at S. Florida
South Carolina at Tennessee

Other Random Thoughts
-Not only does it look like the refs blew the call on Florida's fumble at the goal line, they also failed to call the most obvious excessive celebration of the season. After all the flags they've thrown this season for people calling attention to themselves, I don't know how they missed somebody high-stepping into the endzone. I don't for a second believe there's any sort of conspiracy, but you have to believe that Florida's luck with the officials has to run out at some point.

-Worst coaching decision of the day goes to Lane Kiffin for failing to try and move closer for the game winning field goal. His team had 1st and 10 with about 41 seconds left in position to kick a 44 yard field goal. Despite the fact that his kicker had already had a 43 yarder blocked after kicking it too low and missed a 47 yarder short, Kiffin decided to play it safe. They ran toward the middle of the field for no gain, let the clock run down to 4 seconds, spiked the ball, and then attempted the kick. Not surprisingly, it was blocked after it was kicked too low. When you're playing the #1 team on the road, you have to take some risks if you want to win the game.

-TCU deserves to skip over some teams above them after their performance, but I'm somewhat skeptical that they will. Does anybody see LSU getting jumped after their best victory of the year? It's possible that Iowa could fall after once again barely eking out victory against an inferior opponent. They probably should jump Boise State, but I don't see that happening either.

-Hardest team to predict this week: BYU. With two losses and a win over Oklahoma, they have a pretty good case for staying above the Sooners, but with the way they've been shellacked by FSU and TCU since that opening victory, I have to believe at least a few people will simply drop them from their top 25.

-I've previously picked Kansas, Missouri, LSU, Oregon, and Boise St. as overrated. I was right on the first two. LSU had its best victory, but that's not really saying much. Oregon is starting to make a believer out of me, but they really weren't that good the first few weeks of the season regardless of how well they play at the end. And nobody knows how good Boise State really is.

-Last week I picked Oklahoma, VaTech, Penn State, and Texas Tech to finish higher in the polls than they were at the time. I guess three out of four ain't bad.

Top 25 Update

2009-10-18T01:10:00.003-05:00

A recap of this weekend.
(teams that lost crossed out, teams with impressive wins in green, teams with less than impressive wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses -- I was within one on 26/33 (I knew the bottom half would be tough)

Previous		Projected		My Rankings
1.	Florida	1.	Florida (2)	1.	Alabama
2.	Alabama	2.	Alabama (1)	2.	Florida
3.	Texas	3.	Texas (3)	3.	Cincy
4.	~~VaTech~~	4.	Cincy (5)	4.	Iowa
5.	Boise St.	5.	USC (4)	5.	Texas
6.	USC	6.	Boise St. (6)	6.	USC
7.	~~Ohio St.~~	7.	Iowa (7)	7.	TCU
8.	Cincy	8.	Miami (8)	8.	Miami
9.	Miami	9.	LSU (9)	9.	Penn St.
10.	LSU	10.	TCU (10)	10.	Houston
11.	Iowa	11.	Oregon (12)	11.	OK St.
12.	TCU	12.	Penn St. (13)	12.	GA Tech
13.	Oregon	13.	OK St. (14)	13.	Boise St.
14.	Penn St.	14.	GA Tech (11)	14.	Oregon
15.	~~Nebraska~~	15.	BYU (16)	15.	LSU
16.	OK St.	16.	Houston (17)	16.	VaTech
17.	~~Kansas~~	17.	Utah (19)	17.	Pitt
18.	BYU	18.	VaTech (15)	18.	Ohio St.
19.	GA Tech	19.	Ohio St. (18)	19.	Tx Tech
20.	~~Oklahoma~~	20.	Pitt (20)	20.	West Virginia
21.	~~S. Florida~~	21.	W. Virginia (22)	21.	BYU
22.	~~S. Carolina~~	22.	Tx Tech (21)	22.	Oklahoma
23.	Houston	23.	Kansas (24)	23.	Utah
24.	Utah	24.	Oklahoma (25)	24.	Nebraska
25.	~~Notre Dame~~	25.	Nebraska (29)	25.	Ole Miss
26.	Pitt	26.	S. Florida (28)	26.	Michigan
27.	~~Auburn~~	27.	Ole Miss (27)
28.	West Virginia	28.	S. Carolina (23)
29.	Ole Miss	29.	Michigan (30)
30.	~~Wisconsin~~	30.	Notre Dame (26)
31.	~~Missouri~~	31.	C. Michigan (31)
32.	~~Arkansas~~	32.	Cal (33)
		33.	Arizona (32)

games between (projected) top 25 teams next week:

TCU at BYU
Oklahoma at Kansas

other losable games for top 25 teams:

Tennessee at Alabama
Oregon St. at USC
Auburn at LSU
Iowa at Michigan St.
Oregon at Washington
Penn St. at Michigan
Georgia Tech at UVa
South Florida at Pitt
Air Force at Utah
UConn at West Virginia

other random thoughts:

-Other than figuring out how high Iowa and Cincy will rise (my guess: not as much as they deserve to), it's hard for me to imagine the top 17 being much different. But everything after that is almost a blind guess -- I see a lot of teams that don't deserve to be ranked that high and nowhere else to put them.

-A couple weeks ago I said I was skeptical of Kansas and Missouri -- that seems like a good guess. And I'm still skeptical of LSU, Oregon, and Boise St. Add BYU to the list of teams I expect to fall as the season continues. I expect Oklahoma, VaTech, Texas Tech, and possibly Penn St. to finish the regular season ranked higher than they will be this week.

-Is anybody else completely underwhelmed by what they've seen by Texas so far? I'm underwhelmed by Florida as well, but that's partially because the bar was set so high in the first place. Both teams were mighty lucky to escape with wins today.

-If we ranked teams purely based on what we've seen on the field so far this year, the top 5 would have to be: 1.) Alabama, 2.) Cincy, 3.) Iowa, 4.) Florida, 5.) Texas

update: I think it was well-deserved, but I'm still quite surprised that 'bama jumped over Florida to claim the #1 ranking. I was also surprised that S. Carolina and Notre Dame only dropped one place each, but I think those are fair rankings.

Does Gun Control Work?

2009-10-14T17:35:00.000-05:00

I always assumed that states with stricter gun control also had more gun deaths per capita, for two reasons: 1.) I figured more rural areas usually had less crime and since more rural states are more conservative, that they'd also have laxer gun control laws, and 2.) states with more gun deaths would have more motivation to pass stricter gun control laws. If my assumption were true, it would be easy for anybody to argue that states with fewer gun regulations also have fewer gun deaths. Apparently I was wrong.

Over at 538 today, Tom Schaller mentioned that, outside of DC, "the ten states with the lowest per-capital gun death rates voted for Obama." He referenced this chart of firearm deaths per 100,000 residents by state. If we cross-reference these data with the percent that voted for Obama in each state (here), we get a rather striking picture.

DC is a notable outlier -- it's no surprise that there are more gun deaths there than anywhere else. But if we look at only the 50 states, the correlation between gun deaths and the percent who voted for Obama is a strikingly high -.63, (p<.001). If we graph only the 50 states, it's readily apparent that the relationship is quite strong.

The data are almost too perfect -- there don't even appear to be any real outliers. Indeed, if we look at the original chart in a new way -- color coded by the political leanings of the state -- it again appears almost too perfect. In the chart below, the state is blue if it voted for both Kerry and Obama, purple if it voted for Bush and Obama, and red if it voted for Bush and McCain in '04 and '08.

24 of the top 25 states voted for Bush in 2004, and and 20 of the 25 bottom states voted for Obama in 2008. If we break down the average gun deaths by type of state, we get:

red: 13.83
purple: 12.1
blue: 7.47

In other words, blue states have almost half the rate of gun deaths as do red states. If we regress gun deaths on the percentage voting for Obama, we find out that a 10 percentage point gain in Obama voting is associated with a decrease of 2.9 gun deaths per 100,000 people, or .67 standard deviations (r squared = .402).

So, what does this mean? Well, I think it's fair to assume that the percentage of people in a state who voted for Obama is fairly reasonable proxy for how liberal a state is -- which should also be a fairly reasonable proxy for how strict a state's gun control laws are. So it seems almost certain that, controlling for nothing else, states with stricter gun control laws tend to have fewer gun deaths per capita. Which means that gun control works . . . right? Not really. Like I said, this controls for nothing else. One potentially mediating variable is gun ownership. I have to believe the rates of gun ownership are fairly strongly correlated with how conservative a state is -- hence states with more guns were less likely to vote for Kerry or Obama. Though even if that's true, I see two problems with arguing that it invalidates these statistics:

1.) One of the arguments against gun control is that people can -- and do -- safely own guns. And that guns don't kill people -- people kill people. But if states with higher rates of gun ownership also have higher rates of gun deaths that calls that assumption into question.

2.) One of the goals of gun control is to reduce both the number of people who own guns and the number of guns each person owns. The narrative I've heard in the media is that it's not very successful at doing this -- which I find quite plausible -- but it's still possible that gun control reduces gun ownership a little bit, which would mean that gun ownership would be associated both with how much people feel they need guns and rules regarding gun ownership.

One of the commenters on 538 argues that gun deaths is a misleading statistic, and that we should use homicides involving guns instead. But I disagree. Gun control doesn't aim only to prevent murders with guns, it also aims to prevent gun accidents (e.g. by requiring child-proof safety locks). It's certainly worth looking at both, but I'd put the latter above the former in terms of importance.

I find it most interesting that despite having more urban areas (which usually have higher rates of crime), more liberal states have fewer gun deaths. Indeed, if we were going to conduct a rigorous investigation of whether gun control works or not, we'd certainly have to factor in urbanicity, poverty, non-gun crime rates, gun ownership rates, and a number of other variables. We'd also want to know if there were any other effects of the gun control policy beside that on gun deaths (e.g. were more people killed with knives, or were there more home invasions b/c robbers knew homeowners were less likely to have guns?)

Anyway, here are the possible conclusions we can draw from these data (and given the limited scope we can't be sure that any one of these conclusions is better than the rest):

1.) The data are faulty -- real life isn't usually that neat and clean, and the list could have been doctored or simply made up

2.) Gun control works -- states that have stricter gun control laws also tend to have fewer gun deaths despite being more urban

3.) Gun control is irrelevant, demographic factors matter a lot more

4.) Gun ownership is dangerous, regardless of whether one is in an urban or rural location

5.) Nothing. Far more research would be needed to draw any conclusions.

I'll stick with number 5 until I see more evidence.

Top 25 Update

2009-10-11T00:57:00.001-05:00

Starting this week, I'll be posting my own top 25 in addition to predicting what the AP voters will think.
(teams that lost crossed out, teams with big wins in green, and team with bad wins in red)
update: actual rankings in parentheses -- I was within one spot on 23/32 and only missed by more than two on Auburn

Previous		Projected		My Rankings
1.	Florida	1.	Florida (1)	1.	Florida
2.	Texas	2.	Alabama (2)	2.	Alabama
3.	Alabama	3.	Texas (3)	3.	Texas
4.	~~LSU~~	4.	VaTech (4)	4.	VaTech
5.	VaTech	5.	USC (6)	5.	USC
6.	Boise St.	6.	Boise St. (5)	6.	Cincy
7.	USC	7.	Cincy (8)	7.	Ohio St.
8.	Cincy	8.	LSU (10)	8.	TCU
9.	Ohio St.	9.	Ohio St. (7)	9.	Iowa
10.	TCU	10.	TCU (12)	10.	Nebraska
11.	Miami	11.	Miami (9)	11.	Penn St.
12.	Iowa	12.	Iowa (11)	12.	Miami
13.	Oregon	13.	Oregon (13)	13.	LSU
14.	Penn St.	14.	Penn St. (14)	14.	Boise St.
15.	OK St.	15.	Nebraska (15)	15.	Houston
16.	Kansas	16.	OK St. (16)	16.	BYU
17.	~~Auburn~~	17.	Kansas (17)	17.	Oklahoma
18.	BYU	18.	BYU (18)	18.	GA Tech
18.	Oklahoma	19.	Oklahoma (19)	19.	Oregon
20.	~~Ole Miss~~	20.	GA Tech (20)	20.	S. Florida
21.	Nebraska	21.	S. Florida (21)	21.	S. Carolina
22.	GA Tech	22.	S. Carolina (22)	22.	OK St.
23.	S. Florida	23.	Houston (23)	23.	Kansas
24.	~~Missouri~~	24.	Auburn (27)	24.	Auburn
25.	S. Carolina	25.	Utah (24)	25.	West Virginia
26.	~~Wisconsin~~	26.	W. Virginia (28)	26.	Notre Dame
27.	Houston	27.	N. Dame (25)	27.	Utah
28.	~~Georgia~~	28.	Pitt (26)	28.	Pitt
29.	~~Stanford~~	29.	Wisconsin (30)	29.	Wisconsin
30.	Utah	30.	Missouri (31)	30.	Ole Miss
31.	~~Michigan~~	31.	Ole Miss (29)
32.	~~Boston Coll.~~	32.	Arkansas (32)
33.	Notre Dame

games between top 25 teams next week:

Oklahoma at Texas
S. Carolina at Alabama
VaTech at GA Tech
Cincinnati at S. Florida

other losable games for top 25 teams:

Arkansas at Florida
Boise St. at Tulsa
USC at Notre Dame
Iowa at Wisconsin
Missouri at OK State
Kansas at Colorado
Texas Tech at Nebraska
Utah at Air Force

update: other random thoughts
-I was impressed with how well I did on 23-32 given the number of teams that lost at the bottom of the rankings this week

-The 13-3 loss to Florida is now LSU's most impressive game -- which isn't saying much for a top ten team

-I thought Iowa might jump up in the rankings, but I suppose winning by two points at home against an inconsistent Michigan team that turned the ball over 5 teams isn't really all that impressive. But if they win next week at Wisconsin, they deserve to be ahead of at least LSU and Miami

-I'm starting to wonder if VaTech and Miami are that good, or if the ACC is that bad

-It's pretty clear that the Big East has fewer elite teams than any other BCS conference, but I think they also have fewer bad teams. Is any team other than Syracuse even below average?

Top 25 Update

2009-10-04T00:36:00.001-05:00

Top 25
Teams that lost crossed out, teams with bad wins in red, and teams with big wins in green
update: actual rankings in parentheses (I was within one on 23/33 and within two on 30/33)

Previous		Projected
1.	Florida	1.	Florida (1)
2.	Texas	2.	Texas (2)
3.	Alabama	3.	Alabama (3)
4.	LSU	4.	LSU (4)
5.	Boise St.	5.	Boise St. (6)
6.	VaTech	6.	VaTech (5)
7.	USC	7.	USC (7)
8.	~~Oklahoma~~	8.	Ohio St. (9)
9.	Ohio St.	9.	Cincy (8)
10.	Cincy	10.	TCU (10)
11.	TCU	11.	Miami (11)
12.	~~Houston~~	12.	Iowa (12)
13.	Iowa	13.	OK St. (15)
14.	OK State	14.	Penn St. (14)
15.	Penn State	15.	Oregon (13)
16.	Oregon	16.	Kansas (16)
17.	Miami (Fl)	17.	BYU (18)
18.	Kansas	18.	Ole Miss (19)
18.	~~Georgia~~	19.	Nebraska (21)
20.	BYU	20.	Oklahoma (20)
21.	Ole Miss	21.	GA Tech (22)
22.	~~Michigan~~	22.	Auburn (17)
23.	Nebraska	23.	Missouri (24)
24.	~~Cal~~	24.	S. Carolina (25)
25.	GA Tech	25.	S. Florida (23)
26.	Missouri	26.	Georgia (28)
27.	Auburn	27.	Houston (27)
28.	S. Carolina	28.	Utah (30)
29.	S. Florida	29.	Wisconsin (26)
30.	~~UCLA~~	30.	N. Dame (33)
31.	Utah	31.	Stanford (29)
32.	Wisconsin	32.	Michigan (31)
33.	Notre Dame	33.	Bos. Coll. (32)

games between top 25 teams next week:

Florida at LSU
'bama at Ole Miss
Nebraska at Missouri

other potentially losable games for top 25 teams

BC at VaTech
Baylor at Oklahoma
Michigan at Iowa
Oregon at UCLA
GaTech at Florida St.

other random thoughts

-LSU once again squeaked by in a game they should've lost. I'd say they don't deserve to be the #4 team in the country, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good -- now the big question: will they luck out and face a Tebow-less Florida next week (yes, if Urban Meyer has a heart)

-Will Oregon's victory over Cal mean any less to the voters now that Cal's been exposed? My guess is that it won't. Update: Looks like I was right -- Oregon inexplicably jumped over Penn St. and Oklahoma St. this week.

-Teams of which I'm skeptical: LSU, Boise St., Oregon, Kansas, BYU, Missouri

-Teams I expect to rise: USC, Oklahoma, Notre Dame

-Update: I'm not really surprised that Auburn shot up in the rankings (I did have them jumping three teams), but I don't understand why a win against 2-3 Tennessee is so meaningful.

Top 25 Update

2009-09-20T03:41:00.001-05:00

Previous		Projected
1.	Florida	1.	Florida (1)
2.	Texas	2.	Texas (2)
3.	USC	3.	Alabama (3)
4.	Alabama	4.	Ole Miss (4)
5.	Ole Miss	5.	Penn State (5)
5.	Penn State	6.	Cal (6)
7.	BYU	7.	LSU (7)
8.	Cal	8.	USC (12)
9.	LSU	9.	Miami (9)
10.	Boise St.	10.	Boise St. (8)
11.	Ohio St.	11.	Ohio St. (13)
12.	Oklahoma	12.	Oklahoma (10)
13.	VaTech	13.	VaTech (11)
14.	GA Tech	14.	TCU (15)
15.	TCU	15.	OK State (16)
16.	OK State	16.	Cincy (14)
17.	Cincy	17.	Houston (17)
18.	Utah	18.	Kansas (20)
19.	Nebraska	19.	Georgia (21)
20.	Miami (Fl)	20.	Wash. (24)
21.	Houston	21.	BYU (19)
22.	Kansas	22.	UNC (22)
23.	Georgia	23.	Michigan (23)
24.	N. Carolina	24.	Missouri (26)
25.	Michigan	25.	Nebraska (25)
26.	Missouri	26.	GA Tech (26)
27.	Pitt	27.	Pitt (29)
28.	Oregon St.	28.	Florida St. (18)
29.	Tex Tech	29.	Tex Tech (33)
30.	UCLA	30.	UCLA (30)
31.	Notre Dame	31.	Auburn (27)
32.	West Virginia	32.	N. Dame (34)
33.	Auburn	33.	Iowa (31)
34.	Iowa	34.	Clemson (36)
35.	Boston Coll.	35.	Oregon (32)
36.	Baylor	36.	Utah (35)
		37.	Ore. St. (38)

update: actual rankings in parentheses, I was within two on 31 of 37 teams (I'm not impressed)
Seems like Texas Tech and Pitt were moved down when they didn't deserve to be, and I'm skeptical that the same Florida St. team that trailed Jacksonville St. 9-7 late in the 4th quarter last week really deserves to be #18. And I wonder how high Boise St. can possibly move up without a top 30 team on its schedule.

Games Between Top 25 Teams Next Week
Miami at VaTech

Other Potentially Losable Games for Ranked Teams
Arkansas at Alabama
Ole Miss at South Carolina
Iowa at Penn State
Colorado St. at BYU
Cal at Oregon
UNC at GA Tech
TCU at Clemson
Fresno St. at Cincinnati
Texas Tech at Houston
Boise St. at Bowling Green
Fresno St. at Cincy
LSU at Mississippi St.
S. Florida at Florida St.

Random Thoughts:
-My prediction that TCU will emerge as the best non-BCS team is looking pretty good
-I have no idea how far Washington and Florida St. are going to rise after their wins
-I'm also unsure how far BYU and Utah will fall and Oregon will rise

Top 25 Update

2009-09-13T01:29:00.002-05:00

Top 25 heading into the weekend and tomorrow's projected Top 25
(teams that lost crossed out, teams with impressive victories in green, teams with less than impressive victories in red) update: actual rankings in parentheses, I was within one place on 27 of 36 teams

Previous		Projected
1.	Florida	1.	Florida (1)
2.	Texas	2.	Texas (2)
3.	USC	3.	USC (3)
4.	Alabama	4.	Alabama (4)
5.	~~OK State~~	5.	Ole Miss (5)
6.	Ole Miss	6.	Penn State (5)
7.	Penn State	7.	BYU (7)
8.	~~Ohio St.~~	8.	Cal (8)
9.	BYU	9.	LSU (9)
10.	Cal	10.	Boise St. (10)
11.	LSU	11.	Oklahoma (12)
12.	Boise St.	12.	Ohio St. (11)
13.	Oklahoma	13.	VaTech (13)
14.	VaTech	14.	GA Tech (14)
15.	GA Tech	15.	TCU (15)
16.	TCU	16.	OK State (16)
17.	Utah	17.	Utah (18)
18.	~~Notre Dame~~	18.	Miami (20)
19.	N. Carolina	19.	Georgia (23)
20.	Miami (Fl)	20.	Nebraska (19)
21.	Georgia	21.	Cincy (17)
22.	Nebraska	22.	UNC (24)
23.	Cincy	23.	Kansas (22)
24.	Kansas	24.	Michigan (25)
25.	Missouri	25.	Pitt (27)
26.	Oregon St.	26.	Missouri (26)
27.	~~Michigan St.~~	27.	Houston (21)
28.	Pitt	28.	Tex Tech (29)
29.	Tex Tech	29.	UCLA (30)
30.	Oregon	30.	Oregon (38)
31.	~~Clemson~~	31.	WVU (32)
32.	Florida St.	32.	ND (31)
33.	West Virginia	33.	Ore St. (28)
34.	~~Tennessee~~	34.	Iowa (34)
35.	Iowa	35.	Auburn (33)
36.	Michigan	36.	FSU (42)
37.	UCLA

Games matching up top 25 teams next week:
Nebraska at VaTech
GA Tech at Miami

Losable games for top 25 teams:
Tennessee at Florida
Texas Tech at Texas
USC at Washington
Ohio State at Toledo
Florida St. at BYU
Cal at Minnesota
Boise St. at Fresno St.
Utah at Oregon
East Carolina at UNC
Georgia at Arkansas
Cincy at Oregon St.
Navy at Pitt

Other Thoughts
-Houston could be ranked anywhere between about 20th and 30th, I have no idea what voters will do with them.

-By the end of the year I think TCU will emerge as the best non-BCS team.

-I don't like the rule that gave UNC a safety due to a holding penalty in the endzone by UConn. The QB probably wouldn't have been sacked if the lineman hadn't held -- it was certainly no more likely to result in a safety than pass interference in the endzone is to result in a TD.

-updated: I'm really surprised that Oregon St. only fell two spots after needing a last-second FG to beat UNLV. UNC and Georgia dropped more than I thought they would, but that seems fair after both were lucky to escape with wins against unranked teams.

Top 25 Update

2009-09-07T23:52:00.002-05:00

AP Top 25 before this weekend (teams who lost crossed out, teams with impressive victories in green, less than impressive in red):
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. ~~Oklahoma~~
4. USC
5. Alabama
6. Ohio State
7. ~~VaTech~~
8. Ole Miss
9. OK State
10. Penn State
11. LSU
12. Cal
13. Georgia
14. Boise State
15. GA Tech
16. ~~Oregon~~
17. TCU
18. ~~Florida St.~~
19. Utah
20. BYU
21. UNC
22. Iowa
23. Notre Dame
24. Nebraska
25. Kansas
26. Oregon State
27. ~~Illinois~~
28. Pitt
29. Mich St.
30. ~~Rutgers~~
31. Texas Tech
32. WVU
33. Cincy
34. Clemson
35. Miami (Fla)

Projected Top 25 due out tomorrow:
update: actual rankings in parentheses, I was within one spot for 23 of 32 teams. Miami was the only team I missed really badly on, I guess I wasn't as impressed by that victory as were others. I was most impressed by nailing the rankings of Cal, LSU, Oklahoma, and VaTech since I wasn't sure how far they'd climb/drop

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. USC (3)
4. Alabama (4)
5. Ole Miss (6)
6. OK State (5)
7. BYU (9)
8. Penn State (7)
9. Boise State (12)
10. Cal (10)
11. LSU (11)
12. Ohio St. (8)
13. Oklahoma (13)
14. VaTech (14)
15. GA Tech (15)
16. TCU (16)
17. Utah (17)
18. Georgia (21)
19. UNC (19)
20. Notre Dame (18)
21. Nebraska (22)
22. Cincy (23)
23. Kansas (24)
24. Oregon St. (26)
25. Pitt (28)
26. Missouri (25)
27. Mich. St. (27)
28. Miami (20)
29. Iowa (35)
30. Oregon (30)
31. FSU (32)
32. Clemson (31)

Games between ranked teams next week:
USC at Ohio St.

Other potentially interesting games involving Top 25 teams:
Syracuse at Penn State
Vandy at LSU
S. Carolina at Georgia
Clemson at GA Tech
TCU at UVa
UNC at UConn
Notre Dame at Michigan
Pitt at Buffalo

Is Early Voting McCain's Death Knell?

2008-10-29T10:40:00.005-05:00

Think that McCain has no chance of winning? You might be right. In addition to Obama's leads in a number of formerly red states, he's doing quite well among early voters. The Associated Press released a polls today from most of the key states. They might not be accurate, but if they are then McCain has a huge problem. Not only is Obama ahead in all of the states -- and by pretty large margins in some of them -- but significant numbers of people have voted early in most of them and most of the early voters are going for Obama.

Underrated/Overrated (2008)

2008-10-20T10:26:00.002-05:00

With the first BCS poll out yesterday, here are the teams that the computers think are underrated or overrated (with AP rank/computer rank in parentheses)

Overrated
Penn St. (3/7)
best win so far is against Oregon St. -- this will change if they beat OSU on Saturday

USC (6/10)
Somewhat puzzling given that the computers rank OSU #5, but they did lose to the OSU of the west

Florida (5/12)
Lost to Ole Miss + computer doesn't give much credence to LSU victory (or factor in margin of victory)

Texas Tech (8/11)
Downy-soft schedule

LSU (11/19)
No quality wins -- and, no, Auburn doesn't count

S. Florida (14/23)
Beat Kansas, but the computers don't respect Kansas

Kansas (19/unranked)
Quick, name a team they've beaten + a close loss to Okla doesn't matter to the computers

Underrated

Ohio St. (10/5)
After getting routed in the last two title games, nobody wants to see them in another

Oklahoma St. (7/3)
Started off really low

Georgia Tech (21/16)
ditto, plus the computers don't factor in a 3 point win over Gardner-Webb

Utah (12/8)
Boise St. (13/9)
The computers don't differentiate between BCS and non-BCS

Lakefood and Riverfood

2008-04-06T15:58:00.001-05:00

What is seafood called when it's not from the sea?

Battleground States

2008-03-05T00:28:00.006-06:00

Both candidates are trying to make a case that they're the more electable candidate based on which states they've won. I'm not convinced that this means anything anyway, but what they're forgetting is that at least 30 states won't be in play no matter who's the nominee. Here's a list, courtesy of wikipedia, of the states that were close in 2004. I've added in who (if anybody) has won this year.

States where margin of victory <5%

Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38% -- Obama (+17)
Iowa, Bush, 0.67% -- Obama (+9)
New Mexico, Bush, 0.79% -- Clinton (+1)
New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37% -- Clinton (+2)
Ohio, Bush, 2.11% -- Clinton (+10)
Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50% -- undecided
Nevada, Bush, 2.59% -- Clinton (+6)
Michigan, Kerry, 3.42% -- undecided
Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48% -- Obama (+34)
Oregon, Kerry, 4.16% -- undecided
Colorado, Bush, 4.67% -- Obama (+35)

States where margin of victory 5%<10%>

Florida, Bush, 5.01% -- undecided
New Jersey, Kerry, 6.68% -- Clinton (+10)
Washington, Kerry, 7.18% -- Obama (+5/37)
Missouri, Bush, 7.20% -- Obama (+1)
Delaware, Kerry, 7.60% -- Obama (+10)
Virginia, Bush, 8.20% -- Obama (+29)
Hawaii, Kerry, 8.75% -- Obama (+52)
Maine, Kerry, 8.99% -- Obama (+19)
Arkansas, Bush, 9.76% -- Clinton (+44)
California, Kerry, 9.95% -- Clinton (+9)

Final Tally: 4 to 4 in states decided by <5%, href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html">http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Election Odds #6

2008-02-12T22:20:00.002-06:00

After the Potomac Primaries
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 70% (+10)
Clinton 30% (-10)

Obama takes eight straight and the momentum. The large, decisive, states loom in the distance.

Republicans
McCain 99% (+9)
Huckabee 1% (-6)

Huckabee says he majored in miracles, not math, in college -- he needs one to win.

Overall
Obama 45% (+5)
McCain 43% (+2)
Clinton 10% (-4)
Huckabee 1% (-2)
Bloomberg 1% (--)

It looks like both parties will nominate their most electable candidate

By Party
Democratic 54% (-1)
Republican 45% (+1)
Independent 1% (--)

Now that McCain is all but the nominee, Republicans have nothing to do but hope Hillary wins

Election Odds #5

2008-02-06T00:55:00.000-06:00

After Super Tuesday
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 60% (--)
Clinton 40% (--)

Obama makes a comeback to virtually tie Hillary on Super Tuesday. Now what?

Republicans
McCain 90% (+15)
Huckabee 7% (+6)
Romney 3% (-21)

McCain is still the man to beat, but Huckabee looks like the only one capable of doing so (but maybe only if Romney drops out).

Overall
McCain 41% (+1)
Obama 40% (--)
Clinton 14% (-1)
Romney 1% (-7)
Huckabee 3% (+2)
Bloomberg 1% (--)

Obama and McCain, the most electable Democrat and Republican, still look like the two most likely heirs to the throne

By Party
Democratic 54% (-1)
Republican 45% (+1)
Independent 1% (--)

The continued rise of McCain makes it more likely that a Republican will be in office next January

Election Odds #4

2008-01-29T23:32:00.000-06:00

After SC/FL Primaries
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 60% (+5)
Clinton 40% (-3)

Obama's big win in SC gives him a boost, but Hillary's leading in the big Super Tuesday states

Republicans
McCain 75% (+20)
Romney 24% (+9)
Huckabee 1% (-14)

McCain is now the man to beat, but don't count out Romney's deep pockets

Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 40% (+3)
McCain 35% (+10)
Clinton 15% (-3)
Romney 8% (+2)
Huckabee 1% (-7)
Bloomberg 1% (--)

Obama and McCain, the most electable Democrat and Republican, look like the two most likely heirs to the throne

By Party
Democratic 55% (-1)
Republican 44% (+1)
Independent 1% (--)

The rise of McCain and Hillary's strong campaign organization make it more likely that a Republican will be in office next January

Election Odds #3

2008-01-19T22:50:00.000-06:00

Version 3:
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee (with change from last time):

Democrats
Obama 55% (-5)
Clinton 43% (+8)
Edwards 2% (-3)

Republicans
McCain 55% (+15)
Huckabee 20% (-10)
Romney 15% (+1)
Giuliani 10% (-5)

Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 37% (-3)
McCain 25% (+7)
Clinton 18% (+3)
Huckabee 8% (-4)
Romney 6% (+2)
Giuliani 4% (-1)
Bloomberg 1% (--)
Edwards 1% (-3)

By Party
Democratic 56%
Republican 43%
Independent 1%

Election Odds #2

2008-01-08T21:17:00.000-06:00

Version 2:
Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee:

Democrats
Obama 60%
Clinton 35%
Edwards 5%

Republicans
McCain 40%
Huckabee 30%
Giuliani 15%
Romney 14%
Thompson 1%

Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 40%
McCain 18%
Clinton 15%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 5%
Edwards 4%
Romney 4%
Bloomberg 1%
Thompson 1%

Election Odds

2008-01-04T23:22:00.001-06:00

Likelihood of each candidate becoming their party's nominee:

Democrats
Obama 65%
Edwards 20%
Clinton 14%
Richardson 1%

Republicans
Huckabee 25%
McCain 24%
Romney 23%
Giuliani 22%
Thompson 5%
Paul 1%

Likelihood of each candidate becoming the next President

Overall
Obama 45%
Huckabee 14%
Edwards 11%
McCain 10%
Giuliani 8%
Romney 6%
Clinton 3%
Bloomberg 1%
Richardson 1%
Thompson 1%

And the best BCS conference is . . .

2007-12-02T12:31:00.000-06:00

For those of you who like to argue about which conference is the best, here's the complete list of how each BCS conference fared each other BCS conference along with the conference's overall record against non-conference BCS teams and Top 25 non-conference BCS teams. Games against Notre Dame were not included, nor were Washington's win over Boise St. or UCLA's win over BYU.

BCS Conferences: Games and Record vs. Other BCS Conf.
Conf.	Big E.			ACC			Big 12			Big 10			Pac 10			SEC			Record			v. Top25
Big E.				4	-	3	0	-	0	0	-	3	1	-	1	2	-	1	7	-	8	1-3
ACC	3	-	4				2	-	2	1	-	0	0	-	0	3	-	3	9	-	9	0-6
Big 12	0	-	0	2	-	2				2	-	0	0	-	2	1	-	2	5	-	6	1-4
Big 10	3	-	0	0	-	1	0	-	2				2	-	1	0	-	0	5	-	4	0-2
Pac-10	1	-	1	0	-	0	2	-	0	1	-	2				1	-	0	5	-	3	1-1
SEC	1	-	2	3	-	3	2	-	1	0	-	0	0	-	1				6	-	7	1-3

The one hole in the LSU debate

2007-12-02T11:13:00.000-06:00

If you logically examine the top teams from which one could pick a BCS title game participant opposite Ohio St., LSU seems to make the most sense on many levels. They're the champs of what is probably the most difficult conference and they shellacked ACC champ VaTech head-to-head.

Here's the biggest problem I have with this:

If LSU had beaten Arkansas last week and lost to Tennessee yesterday, their record would be more impressive. They would still have two losses, but the losses would have come to better teams. In short, they would be better on paper. And yet, I don't think they would even be mentioned in the list of contenders for the #2 slot if that had happened.

BCS Title Game

2007-12-01T22:51:00.001-06:00

Let me say this right now. There is no national champion this year. I don't care who wins what bowl games.

That said, here are the most likely teams, in order, to face Ohio St. in the BCS Title Game:

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Kansas
5. USC
6. Hawaii

Personally, I hope that the computers sneak Kansas into the title game simply b/c it will be so ridiculous that nobody will agree with the decision.

overrated/underrated #5

2007-11-11T22:44:00.000-06:00

According to the BCS computers (with AP rank/computer rank in parentheses)

underrated due to a lack of a football tradition
Arizona St. (9/4)
UVa (16/12)
Illinois (20/16)
Cincinnati (21/17)
UConn (25/18)
S. Florida (29/23)

overrated due to a lack of wins over top teams
Oklahoma (3/7)
Texas (12/20)
Hawaii (13/27)
Boise St. (17/26)

Again, the computers seem to disagree most with the humans about the Big East (underrated) and the Big XII (overrated)

upset watch

2007-11-08T02:31:00.000-06:00

This weekend is a lousy one for college football fans: no top 15 teams play each other and (depending on the poll) only two games involve two teams from the top 25. ESPN is so unimpressed that the Gameday crew is covering Williams-Amherst. Not all hope is lost though -- there could still be some upsets. I was going to make a list of a few likely upsets, and then I noticed that virtually every top team is playing a team potentially capable of an upset. So I decided to rank them in order of most likely to least likely. I'll put the under/over at seven of these actually happening.

The following is the list grouped into bunches (with the number I predict will actually happen in parentheses -- predictions have a margin of error of +/- 1 game)

likely (2)

Auburn over Georgia (Heck, Georgia should've lost to Vandy)
Arkansas over Tennessee (I don't understand who actually thinks Tennessee is good)
Miami (FL) over UVa (UVa can't keep winning by one point, can they?)

50/50 (2)

Cincy over UConn (I want to believe in UConn, but I already believe in Cincy)
Miss. St. over 'bama ('bama already lost to Florida St. and Miss. St. already beat Auburn)
Wake Forest over Clemson (which would barely qualify as an upset)
Fresno St. over Hawaii (even though they don't have David Carr anymore)

Maybe (2)

Vandy over Kentucky (though Vandy has already had their one upset this year)
Wisconsin over Michigan (Gulp . . . I hope not)
Oklahoma St. over Kansas (Arguably the best team Kansas has faced to date (which isn't saying much))
Texas Tech over Texas (Texas can't keep coming back from 10+ down in the 4th quarter, can they?)
Cal over USC (This assumes, of course, that Cal can actually win a game (other than against Tennessee))
S. Carolina over Florida (Remember when S. Carolina crushed Kentucky and then Kentucky beat LSU?)
Maryland over BC (If they can lose to Florida St., why not Maryland?)

Crazier Things have happened (1)

Illinois over Ohio St. (Illinois is a decent team)
Florida St. over VaTech (they beat BC -- it could happen)
UCLA over Arizona St. (Remember when UCLA beat Cal?)
Louisville over West Virginia (I can't stop thinking that Louisville will play one good game this year)
Texas A&M over Missouri (I don't think this will happen, but you never know)

Even I would be Surprised (0)

Utah St. over Boise St. (although it's not being played on the magical blue field)
Temple over Penn St. (maybe Temple is good at praying)
Baylor over Oklahoma (I think even Appy St. is better than Baylor)
LaTech over LSU (same goes for LaTech)

overrated/underrated #4

2007-11-04T22:34:00.000-06:00

According to the BCS computers (with AP rank/computer rank in parentheses)

underrated due to lack of football tradition
Arizona St. (9/5)
UConn (16/11)
UVa (23/14) - their low margins of victory also skew the computer rankings

underrated b/c they haven't received enough credit for their best victories
Penn St. (29/19)
S. Florida (33/25)

overrated b/c they haven't beaten top teams
West Virginia (6/12)
Hawaii (14/unrated) - not among the top 26 teams according to the computers

overrated/underrated #3

2007-10-28T19:18:00.001-05:00

According to the BCS computers (with AP rank/computer rank in parentheses)

Overrated due to a lack of wins over top teams
Oklahoma (5/9)
Missouri (9/13)
Hawaii (12/unrated) - 27 teams received a share of the computer vote
Texas (14/unrated) - Neither Hawaii nor Texas were among these 27
USC (13/25)

Underrated b/c they're not traditional football powers
UConn (16/11)
S. Florida (20/12)
UVa (29/18) - computers, however, overrate them since they don't take margin of victory into account

Underrated b/c of a tough schedule
Auburn (19/14)

The computers seem to think that humans overrate the Big 12 and underrate the Big East.

remote eject

2007-10-24T01:51:00.001-05:00

It's so disappointing when you eject a dvd or video using the remote. Just when you think you can take care of everything while still lying on the couch you realize you have to get up and go get the movie.

overrated/underrated college football teams #2

2007-10-21T22:48:00.001-05:00

(with AP rating/BCS computer ranking in parentheses)

overrated b/c they haven't beaten top teams
Oregon (5/9)
West Virginia (6/10)
Oklahoma (4/14)
USC (9/21)
Hawaii (16/unrated) - 29 teams received a share of the computer "vote" and Hawaii wasn't one of them
Texas (17/unrated) nor was Texas
Cal (18/27)

underrated b/c they're not normally a football power and/or they started off low
S. Florida (11/5) - an undeserving 12th in the coaches'/Harris polls - only LSU has beaten more ranked teams
UVa (21/6)
UConn (29/17)
Wake Forest (28/18)

underrated due to a tough schedule
Auburn (23/16)

underrated b/c, apparently, being undefeated means more to the computers
Arizona St. (7/3)
Kansas (12/7)
I'm not sure how much I can agree with the computers here since neither team has even played (yet alone beaten) a team currently in the Top 25

The fact that point differential is not taken into account by the computers also hurts Oregon (who killed Michigan and barely lost to Cal) and helps UVa (who's won the last three games by a combined 4 points) quite a bit.

overrated/underrated college football teams

2007-10-15T01:08:00.000-05:00

With the first BCS poll of the year being released, it becomes easier to see which teams might be overrated or underrated. In the past I've noticed that the computer rankings more accurately reflected a team's prowess than did human rankings. This occurs for various reasons and is, of course, not always true. Given that the season is only about half over it's still difficult to tell how good most teams actually are. The lists that follow are of teams that are ranked notably higher or lower by the computer polls than they are by the human polls. The team's AP and Computer rankings are in parentheses after the school's name and they're under a heading trying to explain the discrepancy.

Overrated b/c they haven't beaten any top teams:
Ohio State (1/5)
Boston College (3/7)
Oklahoma (4/11) -- That Miami win no longer looks so impressive.
Oregon (7/13) -- I think they've gotten credit for almost beating Cal, a team the computers don't particularly like. They could rise if Michigan keeps winning.
USC (13/23) -- That Nebraska win no longer looks so impressive.
Florida (14/17) -- moved down in this week's human polls to narrow the gap
Hawaii (17/25)
Texas (19/unrated) -- 27 teams have at least a percentage of the vote by the computers, Texas is not one of them (meaning the computers view them as no better than the 28th best team).
Texas Tech (22/unrated)

Underrated b/c they started low in the polls:
Kentucky (8/4) -- An inexplicable 13th in the coaches' poll
Virginia (27/14)

Underrated b/c the computers consider 0 losses more impressive than do the humans:
Arizona State (12/5)
Kansas (15/8)

Underrated b/c of a tough schedule:
Auburn (18/12)

Election '08 #1

2007-07-24T21:01:00.000-05:00

I've noticed that the only candidates who are consistently forthright and honest are the ones with no chance to win.

I wonder . . . do they tell the truth because they have no chance, or do they have no chance because they tell the truth?

1/4 mark

2007-05-19T15:40:00.000-05:00

We're one-fourth of the way through the season and the Pirates have a better record than the Yankees.

bird feeder

2007-04-29T19:43:00.000-05:00

I wonder . . . when birds see a bird feeder, do they think "hmm, I wonder how this food got here?" or do they just think "FOOD!"?

lunch

2007-04-19T22:36:00.000-05:00

Given my limited resources in the office, I had to be creative. This is what I came up with: the 5-layer PB&J sandwich. That's 6 pieces of bread, 3 layers of jelly, and 2 layers of peanut butter. It was delicious. I'm not sure I convinced anybody else of this, but I'm pretty sure it tasted better than my other idea (making the loaf of bread into one, giant, breadball) would have.

e-LAME eight

2007-03-23T23:02:00.000-05:00

What kind of tournament is this? The eight teams left are seeded 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 3. Upsets are the main reason that the tourney is the best sporting event of the year. I'm officially declaring this the worst tournament I've ever witnessed, regardless of the fact that there are three rounds left.

Comments

2006-11-28T23:49:00.000-06:00

On another note, I just noticed that people left comments about a couple previous posts. Who knew that somebody other than me read this?

Down With Comcast

2006-11-28T23:38:00.000-06:00

I never intended to post out of anger, but this really ticks me off. I started moving into my house a week ago and, before doing so, contacted Comcast to have cable TV and internet installed. They said couldn't install, however, because the previous occupants had not had their cable TV uninstalled.

I waited a week and tried again. They have now informed me that they're coming to uninstall the cable December 1st. Great, I figured, they can install my cable at the same time and I'll be in business on Friday.

Ahh, but no, they cannot process an installation when an account is already active in a house. In other words, I cannot schedule an install until after they have uninstalled the previous cable (meaning next week at the earliest, which should make writing my term papers interesting). What, exactly, are they uninstalling? Beats me.

So here's my random thought: can one make a voodoo doll of a company?

College Football Puns

2006-11-19T00:21:00.000-06:00

For some reason I seem to be obsessed with the way the BCS is playing out this year. This week I noticed the following things:

Rutgers played like they had Scarlet Fever
Cal got "Bearied" by USC
OSU gave Michigan a Buck Eye
Miami apparently approached the UVa game w/ a much too Cavalier attitude
VaTech "Deaced" out Wake . . . and then did the Hokie Pokie to celebrate

I apologize for any pain I may have caused

Have you caught Scarlet Fever?

2006-11-12T11:09:00.000-06:00

That was the most amazing weekend of college football I have ever seen. I love how irate people get over this stuff, and this adds more fuel to the fire than one could have ever imagined being added. I've been arguing for a couple weeks that Rutgers was underrated. Despite this one guy who says that they won't break the Top 10 in the BCS poll, the numbers seem to say they'll be #7.

I'm a believer

2006-11-09T22:13:00.000-06:00

I kept saying that Rutgers was underrated, but . . . wow.

This opens up two insane possibilities:

1. There are two undefeated BCS conference teams, but only one makes the title game

2. Auburn does not qualify for the SEC championship, but makes it to the BCS championship

You gotta sit back and laugh while the talking heads go nuts for the next month trying to sort this out

Pigs Flew

2006-11-07T17:49:00.000-06:00

I got two e-mails this morning. One from the RNC and one from the DNC. I didn't bother reading either of them, but I noticed that they were both titled, simply, "Vote." They finally agreed on something!

A pitcher who can keep pitching

2006-11-02T16:37:00.000-06:00

According to cbs.sportsline.com Daisuke Matsuzaka looks like a pitcher who's not a baby about pitch counts.

"After throwing 250 pitches in Yokohama High School's 17-inning quarterfinal victory, he came in the next day to get the save in the semis before tossing a no-hitter the following day as his team won the championship."

Yay

2006-11-02T00:44:00.000-06:00

I have a blog. Too bad I have nothing to say. Oh well.