Occasional musings too long to fit in my facebook status updates

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Battleground States

Both candidates are trying to make a case that they're the more electable candidate based on which states they've won. I'm not convinced that this means anything anyway, but what they're forgetting is that at least 30 states won't be in play no matter who's the nominee. Here's a list, courtesy of wikipedia, of the states that were close in 2004. I've added in who (if anybody) has won this year.

States where margin of victory <5%

  1. Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38% -- Obama (+17)
  2. Iowa, Bush, 0.67% -- Obama (+9)
  3. New Mexico, Bush, 0.79% -- Clinton (+1)
  4. New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37% -- Clinton (+2)
  5. Ohio, Bush, 2.11% -- Clinton (+10)
  6. Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50% -- undecided
  7. Nevada, Bush, 2.59% -- Clinton (+6)
  8. Michigan, Kerry, 3.42% -- undecided
  9. Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48% -- Obama (+34)
  10. Oregon, Kerry, 4.16% -- undecided
  11. Colorado, Bush, 4.67% -- Obama (+35)

States where margin of victory 5%<10%>

  1. Florida, Bush, 5.01% -- undecided
  2. New Jersey, Kerry, 6.68% -- Clinton (+10)
  3. Washington, Kerry, 7.18% -- Obama (+5/37)
  4. Missouri, Bush, 7.20% -- Obama (+1)
  5. Delaware, Kerry, 7.60% -- Obama (+10)
  6. Virginia, Bush, 8.20% -- Obama (+29)
  7. Hawaii, Kerry, 8.75% -- Obama (+52)
  8. Maine, Kerry, 8.99% -- Obama (+19)
  9. Arkansas, Bush, 9.76% -- Clinton (+44)
  10. California, Kerry, 9.95% -- Clinton (+9)
Final Tally: 4 to 4 in states decided by <5%, href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html">http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

About Me

Buffalo, New York, United States